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American Morning

U.S/China Standoff: Behind the Wall of Communist China

Aired April 09, 2001 - 10:20   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: More on our top story now, the U.S.- China stalemate. We're going to take a closer look behind the wall of communist China and how an internal political struggle may affect the way that China resolves this standoff.

For more on this, we're joined by Robert Hathaway. He is director of the Asia program at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, where he is joining us this morning. Dr. Hathaway, good morning. Thanks for joining us.

ROBERT M. HATHAWAY, WOODROW WILSON CENTER: Good morning to you, Daryn.

KAGAN: First, this move by President Bush to write a letter directly to the wife of the missing Chinese pilot. Do you think that is a good and helpful move?

HATHAWAY: Yeah, sure, I do. We want to convey a genuine sense of regret for the personal loss of life here and I think this is a very helpful step. Moreover, it is something far short of issuing an apology. We don't have anything to apologize for. We shouldn't apologize. But I think this is a nice gesture, trying to suggest that we do, in fact, regret the loss of the pilot's life.

KAGAN: The U.S. government has done a pretty good job in remaining unified and standing behind President Bush and how he chooses to handle the situation. But what do you see behind-the- scenes in China? What is happening within that government?

HATHAWAY: Well, I think it's useful for us to remember that these aren't simply a bunch of disagreeable fellows who are trying to poke a stick in our eye. Behind-the-scenes in Beijing is a very fierce and a very significant battle for influence, for position, for budgetary resources. China is going through an important political transition as the current leadership will step down over the next few years.

The current president, Jiang Zemin, will give up both the presidency and the head of the party. He wants to retain some influence and the only way he can retain some influence after he gives up these two important positions is for him to retain the support of the military. So he's got a personal interest in not appearing to be too soft vis-a-vis the Americans. In addition, there's a whole set of new leaders who are jockeying for power who would like to move up in the hierarchy over the next several years.

KAGAN: And many of those up and comers have been educated here in the U.S., so they have a better understanding of American culture.

HATHAWAY: They have.

KAGAN: It doesn't necessarily make them pro-American, however.

HATHAWAY: That's exactly right. I think what they're focused on first and foremost is Chinese priorities, not American sensitivities. I mean at the end of the day what's really going on here is a contest, indeed, a battle between those who would like to have China continue its focus on economic development and those who would like to portray a more ominous security environment and therefore to have China put more of its resources into the People's Liberation Army, into security and military affairs.

KAGAN: How can understanding those aspects of the situation in China help the U.S. better resolve the situation more quickly?

HATHAWAY: Well, I think if we understand what's going on in China behind-the-scenes it does give us some hints as to how to proceed. For instance, at the end of the day, we want the Chinese to back down from their demand that we issue an apology. As I already said, we're not going to issue an apology and we shouldn't.

So the question is how to get them to back down without embarrassing them and I think in order for us to do this, we have to have a sensitivity as to what's going on behind-the-scenes and therefore a sensitivity as to how we can give them some wiggle room so that they can back down.

KAGAN: Well, also, though, at the end of the day, at least at the end of this day and the last seven days, they do hold the cards in that they have the 24 detainees, if that's what you want to call them, and they also have the plane.

HATHAWAY: Well, in the short run, yes, they hold the cards. But in a far more important way, we hold the cards. We are so much stronger than the Chinese, economically, militarily, in terms of political stability. They fear us. They resent our strength. And I think you would find very few Chinese who would argue that in the longer run they really hold the cards. I think we hold most of the cards and they know it and they resent it.

KAGAN: How do you think the Bush administration has been handling this so far?

HATHAWAY: Well, I think pretty good. I wish that they had, the administration had chosen some experienced China hands to staff the senior positions in the administration, because these people would have links with the Chinese that would make dealings with China easier. But I think certainly in the last four or five days, the administration has been on target and deserves some credit for its response to this standoff.

KAGAN: Robert Hathaway with the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington. Thanks for joining us, Dr. Hathaway. Good to have you here.

HATHAWAY: Thank you. Good to be here.

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