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American Morning

Jeffords May Defect From Republican Party

Aired May 23, 2001 - 11:01   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: We go to Capitol Hill, where the burning question today is, what will James Jeffords do? The longtime Republican senator from Vermont is expected to announce today that he is leaving the party. CNN congressional correspondent Kate Snow joins us now from the Hill with more -- Kate.

KATE SNOW, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Leon, Senator Jeffords tells CNN that he has made up his mind, although he won't tell us exactly what his decision is. But according to aides and sources here on Capitol Hill, the decision will be to leave the Republican Party and probably to go independent. That's what Democrats or Democratic sources say to us here on Capitol Hill. They think he will go independent, but he will vote Democratic. In other words, he will help the Democrats take control of the Senate.

He will vote for Tom Daschle to be the new Senate majority leader. That means the Democrats would be able to set the agenda here on Capitol Hill. They would decide what bills are taken up.

It would also impact the House of Representatives, House Democrats looking at this as a win for them, because then they feel that even though they don't have the majority in the House, they may be able to get a little bit more done. They will know that they have the Senate on their side, that the House Republicans will be a little bit scared they would say by that Senate control.

Democratic minority leader from the House, Richard Gephardt speaking earlier this morning said that he sees this as a victory. And he says it's an indication that there are no moderate Republicans.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. RICHARD GEPHARDT (D-MO), MINORITY LEADER: We hear reports that Senator Jeffords may be coming over to caucus with the Democratic party. If that happens, I think it sends a very loud, clear message that while the Republicans talk bipartisanship, they fail to really do things in a bipartisan way.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SNOW: House Speaker Dennis Hastert also reacting to the news this morning talking to reporters. He said, "When we're talking about the Senate, we always have concerns." He says its' the narrowest of margins over there. And then referring to Senator Jeffords, he did say it would be unfortunate if that happened, if Senator Jeffords were to leave the Republican Party.

Now, Senator Jeffords has always been known as a bit of a liberal Republican, came out earlier this spring against president's $1.6 trillion tax cut. And he said this morning to our producer that he will vote today -- they are expecting to take up the tax bill again later today -- he said, "I will vote against the president's tax bill." Back to you.

HARRIS: Kate, since you bring up the tax bill, is the timing of this timed specifically to hold up this tax bill? What are you hearing about that?

SNOW: Well, that's unclear whether this was a strategy or not, whether there was a motive behind the timing. But what I can tell you is that some are wondering will Senator Jeffords make his announcement effective immediately? Or will he say that I'll wait until after the tax cut gets through Congress before I'm officially an independent.

That's important, because even though Senator Jeffords says that he's going to vote against the tax cut, there are I'm told enough Democrats that will vote for the tax cut, probably 10 or 12 that they think it will get through. But once it gets through the Senate, perhaps later today, they have to match or reconcile the language that the Senate passes and what the House passed on the tax cut. That means they have to form what's called a conference committee.

Who is going to control who sits on that committee? Well, right now it's the Republicans. But if Jim Jeffords were to say it's effective immediately, "I'm no longer a Republican," then it would be the Democrats in control of that conference committee and how the tax cut will actually work out, what will reach the president's desk. So a lot of questions about the timing and the impact that this could have on the tax cut, Leon.

HARRIS: I can just see the folks on the House now getting their teeth set on edge now for the same exact reasons, because of that. All right, thanks much, Kate Snow on Capitol Hill. We'll talk with you later on -- Daryn.

DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Well, if nothing else, this won't come as a surprise to the White House. Senator Jeffords met yesterday separately with President Bush and Vice President Cheney. With more on that, let's go to our senior White House correspondent John King -- John, good morning.

JOHN KING, CNN SR. WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Good morning to you, Daryn. Well, those conversations have failed to convince Senator Jeffords to stay in the Republican Party. So while the official White House line this morning is no comment, they won't say anything publicly until Senator Jeffords makes announcement.

Behind the scenes here, they're already debating how much of an impact this will have on the president's first-year agenda. Kate Snow just talking about potential impact on the tax cut bill. The president's education proposal also making its way through the Hill, the larger debate about spending, how much the government will spend and exactly where that money would go, and, of course, a number of controversial judicial nominations by this president. Now it looks like it will go through a Senate Judiciary Committee controlled by the Democrats. So the White House trying to debate how they need to recalibrate their approach.

One big issue in the weeks ahead will be a new definition of bipartisanship. This a president who promised a new tone in Washington. Many Democrats say he hasn't kept that promise, but who has tried to get Democratic votes by going to individual senators, Senator John Breaux of Louisiana or Zell Miller of Georgia, on the tax cut issue, for example.

Now, assuming all this plays out as we are told by sources it will, this president is going to have to deal directly with one of the Democratic congressional leaders, Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle. Daryn.

KAGAN: John, on another topic today, you have news of President Bush getting a little bit more assertive in trying to bring some calm to the Middle East.

KING: Direct phone calls this morning, the president calling the Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and more significantly the Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat. Those two, Mr. Bush and Mr. Arafat, had not spoken since a quick get-acquainted call back in February, the administration upset that the Palestinians had not done more to calm the tensions in the region. But the president calling both leaders today.

And the White House saying both agreed to accept the recently released Mitchell Commission as a framework for trying to end the violence. Now, that is viewed as a positive development. However, quite a cautionary note here. The White House saying now that they have agreed verbally to accept that as a framework, the next key step is will Mr. Sharon and will Mr. Arafat take the steps necessary to bring about a cease-fire.

KAGAN: John King at the White House. John, thank you very much.

With more insight -- getting back now to the Senator Jeffords situation and that story, we have with us here in Atlanta our senior political analyst, Bill Schneider, who is down here at our headquarters. Also with us out of New York is our senior analyst Jeff Greenfield. Gentlemen, good morning to both of you.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning.

KAGAN: Bill, let's start with you. And let's talk by talking about the timing of Senator Jeffords' move.

GREENFIELD: Well, the timing is certainly meant to discomfort the White House because here's the president ready to receive the first major piece of legislation he wants to sign, which is the big tax cut bill. And depending on when Jeffords decides to make his move, he could throw that into some danger because if the Democrats become the majority right away, they could do what they're already trying to do, delay the passage of the tax cut even further and possibly even modify it so it's more to their liking.

KAGAN: Jeff, we're hearing that the senator will make his announcement around 2:00 p.m. Eastern today, which of course our viewers will see here on CNN. What will you be listening for in what he has to say?

JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SENIOR ANALYST: Well, the first thing I'll be looking for is to find out exactly what he is going to do. I mean, Washington is now feasting on this rumor mill. And it seems pretty clear he is going to at some point in some level leave the Republican Party.

What's the timing of it? Presumably he's going to remain an independent -- or go to be an independent.

KAGAN: What is the significance of that, Jeff, going to be independent versus Democrat?

GREENFIELD: No, I think that's a matter of...

KAGAN: Gone is gone?

GREENFIELD: ... Well, if he votes for Tom Daschle as majority leader, then the entire Senate structure changes. I think it's a matter of propriety. Wayne Morris, who was the last Republican to become a Democrat who was a senator, went from Republican to independent for a couple of years and then moved. I think it's a way of saying to supporters who have voted for him in Vermont as a Republican for the last 26 years for the House and Senate, "I'm taking this step not out of some lurching move from one party to the other because of principled differences." It has no impact in terms of the importance of it as long as he's voting for Tom Daschle.

KAGAN: Much has been made of the slight supposedly that the White House made towards this senator. Bill, do you think people within the White House aides are kicking themselves over how he was treated?

SCHNEIDER: They certainly ought to because they made a bad mistake. They personally insulted him. A Vermont teacher was being honored as the teacher of the year. Senator Jeffords is very much involved in education issues. And he was not invited to the White House ceremony, which was a deliberate insult.

The fact is, what they failed to calculate was very simple. The Republicans need Jeffords more than Jeffords needs the Republicans. He can survive very nicely in Vermont as an independent or even a Democrat because Vermont has become more and more liberal and more Democratic. They voted for Clinton twice. They voted for Gore by 10 points last year. And it was Ralph Nader's best state. So if you want to be an independent, there's the state to do it.

KAGAN: Go ahead.

GREENFIELD: And the president -- Bernie Sanders, the congressman, who is elected statewide, is an independent. In fact, he's a self-identified socialist, which is pretty much as far left as you get in America.

I just want to make one point...

KAGAN: Go ahead.

GREENFIELD: ... about when you think back, we often talk about politics in this kind of structured way, as though it's all a set of political science rules. There were two deaths last year that made this move, if Jeffords does it, as significant as it was.

First, Paul Coverdell, the popular Georgia senator, was replaced by Zell Miller, who then won election to a full term last fall. And a few days before the election in Missouri, Governor Mel Carnahan was killed in a plane crash. The sympathy for his widow Jean may have made the difference in Carnahan beating John Ashcroft. Without those two deaths, it's very possible that this would not have been the fifty-first vote for a Democrat.

So one who thinks that you can look at politics as some sort of linear extrapolation and not realize the heavy hand that fate plays in politics is just deluding themselves.

KAGAN: OK, you bring up Zell Miller. A lot of talk here in Georgia that he could be a party switcher and do the exact opposite, go from the Democrats and join the Republicans. How likely do you think that is to happen?

SCHNEIDER: It doesn't sound very likely. The latest word we're getting from Zell Miller's office is that he's not going to switch parties right now. He has no intention of doing so. But he doesn't rule it out in the future.

Clearly, every senator in a Senate that's so closely split, every senator has power, particularly conservative Democrats like Zell Miller, who could switch sides, and liberal Republicans like Jim Jeffords, who is going to switch. Those people have an enormous amount of power. And you have to pay a lot of attention to the care and feeding of every individual senator.

KAGAN: All right, Jeff, if the Republicans indeed can't get Zell Miller to switch over to their party, what's their next countermove?

GREENFIELD: They don't have one. The next countermove is to wait until 2002. They think there are some vulnerable Democrats out there, particularly in the so-called red states that voted for Bush. Tim Johnson of South Dakota is up for reelection. I think Max Baucus is.

But remember, there's also a fellow named Strom Thurmond, who has been looked at with increasingly morbid speculation. The fellow is 98 years old. And nature may be taking its toll. That's actually the one that a lot of people thought would split the Senate because if Strom Thurmond had to leave or the Grim Reaper took him, a Democratic governor of South Carolina is going to name a Democratic successor.

And it's just another example, when you have election that results in 50/50 Senate, the normally inflated egos of senators become almost appropriate because, as Bill said, every one of them potentially holds the balance of power. I don't think among liberal Republicans or conservative Democrats in the Senate there is anyone that is really likely at this point to switch. So that's why this is taking as much time as it is. This is a genuinely big political story.

KAGAN: And we will watch it well, and appreciate both of you with your insight today. Thank you so much, Jeff Greenfield and Bill Schneider.

And we do expect to hear from Senator Jeffords around 2:00 p.m. Eastern. We will bring you those comments live right here on CNN.

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