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American Morning
Experts Discuss Cuba on Revolution Day
Aired July 26, 2001 - 09:46 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
STEPHEN FRAZIER, CNN ANCHOR: Here is the scene, as more than a million citizens of Cuba were expected to turn out. And from these pictures, it looks like more than a million did turn out for today's annual Revolution Day celebrations in Havana. It's about 10 percent of Cuba's overall population. President Fidel Castro -- El Jefe himself there -- led the march. It marks the start of the Cuban revolution, 48 years ago today. It's an observance traditionally celebrated with a speech by Castro, but no speech is planned this year.
Joining us on the telephone to bring us up to the date on that and why that is is CNN's Havana bureau chief Lucia Newman -- Lucia.
LUCIA NEWMAN, CNN HAVANA BUREAU CHIEF: Hello, Stephen.
Indeed, for more than 1 1/2 hours, tens of thousands of Cubans have been marching past the U.S. diplomatic mission in Havana carrying Cuban flags and crying out anti-American slogans. They say, "Down with the blockade," which is a reference to the now-more-than-four- decades-old U.S. economic embargo against Cuba, and "Down with terrorism against Cuba.
This march is one of the largest that's ever been called to commemorate the 40th anniversary of the attack on the Moncada Barracks, in Santiaga, Cuba, by Fidel Castro and a small group of rebels. This is, as you yourself have mentioned, one of the most important dates on Cuba's revolutionary calendar, because it marks the start of the rebellion which finally lead to the times of the Cuban revolution.
This huge march has been organized with military precision. Imagine nearly 10 percent of the population, or 1.2 million people, it's believed will have marched today. They were brought out in busses from all over the province of Havana since 1:00 this morning. Many of these people must be exhausted; they haven't even been able to sleep yet.
But the march is beginning to thin out just a little bit now. As you mentioned, President Castro led the march. He was flanked by the two grandsons of the Ayatollah Khomeini, of Iran. He walked, but he did not talk, which is unusual for President Fidel Castro, especially on this historic day. No explanation has been given -- Stephen.
FRAZIER: Our Havana bureau chief Lucia Newman on the telephone. Lucia, thank you very much.
We're going to spend a little more time on this now, talking about the absence of any coincidence. As Cuba was preparing for those Revolution Day celebrations, the United States House of Representatives was voting to lift a ban on Americans traveling to that communist nation. And in the process, lawmakers only narrowly rejected a move to completely lift the 40-year-old embargo, or what Lucia called a blockade on Cuba.
For more on this, we're joined live, from Washington, by Julia Sweig, who's fellow and deputy director of Latin American studies at the council on foreign relations. She's also author of an upcoming book about the Cuban revolution.
Also from Washington is Steve Johnson of the Heritage Foundation.
Ms. Sweig, you first. You would like to see this embargo, this blockade, lifted now. Why is that?
JULIA SWEIG, COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS: It's the case that, for over 40 years, our policies of sanctions and other sorts of pressure against the Cuban regime have not yielded our objectives. At this point, it's very much in the American interest to begin trade and diplomat ties with the current government on the island, precisely so that the two countries, the two populations, together can begin to prepare for the inevitable succession that will take place on the island.
FRAZIER: Let's bring in Mr. Johnson, who believes it's not quite time yet to end these sanctions. What would you have to wait for until you would agree with that, Mr. Johnson?
STEVE JOHNSON, HERITAGE FOUNDATION: Stephen, I think that important principle here is not making a deal with the current government, but betting on a different horse, and that's the Cuban people themselves. And I think a more principled approach to incremental changes to the policy, one which demonstrates diplomatic flexibility and also provides incentives for certain kinds of changes to the existing sanctions, would be a better approach, rather than lifting the embargo right now and doing business with what has been a 40-year history of tyranny and tragedy.
FRAZIER: You mentioned flexibility. Where would you add some flexibility?
JOHNSON: From what we can gather by the seeming gradual emfeeblement of Jefe Maximo.
FRAZIER: Castro, you mean.
JOHNSON: That's correct. The scenario that is playing out is that, at some point, the puppeteer is going to become a puppet himself and that perhaps more moderate people in the regime, in the nomenclatura, will be able to change some of the policies that have been very near and dear to his personal agenda. And I think that, in terms of look at ways that we can facilitate sales to the regime -- cash and carry sales that will encourage market reforms -- as well as provide scholarships to Cuban students to study in the United States, conditional lifting of the travel ban, based on reforms to the tourist industry that would allow Cuban citizens access to tourist facilities and in the economic apartheid that exists on the island -- those are the kinds of things that would be more likely to bring about change and also help us to begin to deal with the people that might form the basis or the seed of the beginnings of private enterprise in a transition scenario, such as the self-employed workers and Cuban artisans.
SWEIG: Can I jump in?
FRAZIER: Let's bring in professor Sweig. Go ahead, professor.
SWEIG: Thank you very much.
I think, as you can see from Steve's response, there is a very broad bipartisan consensus that's developed over the last couple of years that engagement, overall, is the right path to take. The problem is is that the United States government has zero leverage over these new generations of Cubans coming into the positions of power right now -- zero leverage, zero cards to play with, as long as we start an approach to Cuba that turns on the question of conditioning.
Quids, pros, and quos don't work; that has been demonstrated over the last 10 years. And the one lesson that has been learned by the new generations that are taking office at that every level but the top in Cuba right now is that you don't negotiate segments of your country in exchange for the potential that the United States may lift the travel ban.
Primarily, what is my view is that the United States needs to back off as much as possible and stop trying to condition change and move as much as possible towards a relaxation of the sanctions, without conditioning, because the conditioning will put the Cuban leaderships back against the wall -- not just the current leadership, but the very people that Mr. Johnson is talking about trying to draw out.
FRAZIER: Professor, hasn't Fidel Castro pointed to his own brother as what he would like to be his likely successor?
SWEIG: Yes, that's true. His own brother, who's a few years younger than him, would be the immediate successor. But I think that his style of governing wouldn't be anything like what we have seen from Fidel Castro. I think what we would see is probably something much closer to something along the lines of a mixed civilian-military junta, but it would be a very, very different environment.
It's very important that given that new environment that is clearly coming to us down to us within the next, perhaps three, five, 10 years, the United States has to have direct relationships with people on the ground there not just in opposition circles, but in government circles, so that the two countries together can try to avoid chaos, avoid crisis, and an unstable transition.
FRAZIER: Let me say, because we are running out of time, that we're going to let that be the last word, professor. But let me thank you both, Mr. Johnson, Professor Sweig, for joining us.
SWEIG: Thank you very much.
JOHNSON: Thank you.
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