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American Morning
Illustrations Of Odds Against Winning Powerball
Aired August 22, 2001 - 10:14 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: OK, that graphic that we popped up there on the screen, we got a little bit ahead of ourselves. We're going to talk now about the kind of budget surplus that a lot of us would like to dream of.
People are lining up to buy their chance at $200 million. That is the growing jackpot, the estimated size of the prize in tonight's Powerball lottery.
Winning is not easy. Let's look at some odds here: One in 80 million. But if any of these folks can beat the odds, he or she can take that 200 million spread out over 25 years, or $110 million all at once.
Powerball is a multistate lottery comprising 21 states and Washington, D.C.
Of course, human nature being what it is, most lottery players no doubt focus on that very slim chance that you could be the winner, rather than dwelling on the overwhelming odds that you wouldn't be.
Joining us now to kind of bring your insight and your perspective into focus is Mike Orkin. He is nationally known, he is an expert on odds and gambling, a professor of statistics at California State University, and the author of several books, including "What Are The Odds? Chance In Everyday Life." Good morning.
MIKE ORKIN, AUTHOR, "WHAT ARE THE ODDS?": Good morning.
KAGAN: Thanks for joining us. First, as a Californian, I know California State University, that could be a lot of places. Are you at UC, are you at Berkeley?
ORKIN: No, I'm at Cal State University, Hayward.
KAGAN: Hayward, OK. Got to get Hayward in there, because I know there is a number of campuses.
ORKIN: That's right.
KAGAN: There you go. OK, now let's talk odds. Different ways, you've come up with a lot of different ways, instead of just saying one in whatever million, to put it into perspective.
First I want to start with: If you drive 10 miles to buy a ticket.
ORKIN: Yes. People have a hard time understanding what One in 80 million mean...
KAGAN: Right.
ORKIN: You have to drive 10 miles to buy a lottery ticket, you are about 16 times more likely to get killed in a car crash on your way to buy the ticket than you are to win the Powerball jackpot.
KAGAN: A little morbid there. Let's move onto people who might be buying a number of tickets. They think, well one ticket isn't enough. So, what if they bought 50 tickets?
ORKIN: Yes, if you buy 50 tickets a week, you will win the Powerball jackpot on the average of about once every 30,000 years.
KAGAN: That's a lot of tickets and lot of living to do...
ORKIN: Yes, it is.
KAGAN: ... before you win that big jackpot.
Now, let's borrow from our friends in Canada. You've come up with an analogy using the entire Canadian population.
ORKIN: Use the entire -- let's say you have one friend in Canada...
KAGAN: Which we do.
ORKIN: ... OK, and you put everybody in Canada's name on pieces of paper, and put them in a giant hat and draw one out at random. Then, you are 2 1/2 times more likely to pick your one friend's name than you are to win the Powerball jackpot if you buy a single ticket.
KAGAN: Again, not very likely. Now we're going to go to the moon on this next analogy. If you drive only one mile to buy a ticket?
ORKIN: Let's say that every time you drive a mile, you buy a Powerball ticket. Well, then you'll have to drive an average distance of 167 round trips to the moon before you win the Powerball jackpot.
KAGAN: The odds aren't very good, but as we mentioned off the top: Someone's got to win.
ORKIN: Someone's got to win. luck is a group activity, and given enough opportunity, namely, lots people buying tickets, then weird things happen, namely there's a winner, even against such big odds.
KAGAN: Would you buy one though, Mike?
ORKIN: Well, I can't buy one. I'm in California, Powerball is played in California. KAGAN: No, I know Powerball's not, but lottery are certainly -- I think, Big Game in California.
ORKIN: To tell you the truth, I prefer to play Blackjack.
KAGAN: Very good, and you don't have to go to Vegas or Tahoe for that. Well, thanks for helping us understand the numbers, statistics' not always an easy game to understand.
Professor Mike Orkin from Cal State, Hayward.
ORKIN: My pleasure.
KAGAN: I've got to get that in there. Thanks you so much, professor.
ORKIN: OK, my pleasure.
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