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American Morning

Does Reno Stack up Against Governor Bush?

Aired September 04, 2001 - 09:20   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: The questions about Janet Reno and the Florida governor's race are beginning to shift from,"will she run" to "can she win."

CNN senior political analyst Bill Schneider looks at the political pluses and minuses of a Reno campaign.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BILL SCHNEIDER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Reno does have several strengths, but each of them has a down side. She can raise a lot of money from Democrats around the country, but money would also pour into Jeb Bush's campaign to stop Janet Reno. She could motivate a high turnout among African-American voters and woman. But also, a high turnout against her among Republicans.

Like many states, Florida has elected a woman senator, but never a woman governor. There's still a lingering prejudice against woman in executive positions.

Reno has several negatives, but they could have an upside. She has Parkinson's disease. She'd have to deal with that up front by bringing physicians out to testify that she is able to serve. The upside? Florida has large population of seniors, and they may see a vote for Reno as a way to make a statement about being tolerant of disabilities.

Then there's the Elian Gonzalez case and the huge controversy over her handling of it. There's no question that Cuban Americans would come out solidly against Reno, but Cuban Americans are only 6 percent of the Florida vote. Many other Florida voters agreed with Reno, and admired her for standing up to Cuban American pressure.

Reno's biggest problem: having served eight years in the Clinton administration, she may be too liberal for Florida.

Jeb Bush lost the race for governor in 1994 to Democrat Laughton Childs. The Democrat dominated the moderate vote. When Jeb Bush beat Democrat Buddy McKay four years later, liberals held solid for McKay, but the moderate vote was split. Message: A Democrat can win Florida only by appealing to moderate voters.

Janet Reno is going to have to prove she can do that.

Bill Schneider, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

COLLEEN MCEDWARDS, CNN ANCHOR: Well, Janet Reno is expected to begin laying the groundwork her possible entry into the governor's race today.

And joining us to talk a little bit more about that is Tom Fiedler. He's the editorial pages editor for the "Miami Herald."

Tom, thanks for being here.

Let's start with the Democratic nomination. Can she win it?

TOM FIEDLER, "MIAMI HERALD": I think the polls are pretty persuasive that she is the giant in this particular race, not only is she the -- by the far the best know, she has nearly 100 percent name recognition. But her political base in southeast Florida. She ran successfully as the prosecuting attorney in Dade County four times. And they love in Broward County in the condominiums. So I think she really starts this race as the giant. It's hard for her to lose it.

MCEDWARDS: All right. Well, let's skip ahead a step there for a moment and assume she does with the nomination. How would she do in a race against Governor Jeb Bush?

FIEDLER: Well, that's the big question. Right now she'll start, according again to the polling, she'll start as the underdog. Governor Bush gets just about 50 percent in the polls and Janet Reno is trailing him by about 10 to 12 points.

Now, that's relatively close in an election that can -- that's 14 months away, but I think the fact of the matter is, given her high name recognition and the fact that she has a lot of baggage among all voters, she -- in fact, her negatives outweigh her positives -- it's going to take something to cause her to really close that gap. It's going to be uphill for her.

MCEDWARDS: Well, you bring up the issue of baggage. Is the handling of the Elian Gonzalez case her biggest bag at this point?

FIEDLER: No, not really, because, I think as Bill Schneider pointed out, the Elian Gonzalez case really is only a voting kind of issue to Cuban Americans, maybe 75, 80 percent of them. And about that same percentage would be typical Republican voter anyway. So I don't really think that the Elian Gonzalez case will play a major -- central issue, it will be on the peripheral, it will give people a chance to attack her. But that's not going to be decisive for her.

MCEDWARDS: Well, Tom, who does comes out and support her? You've touched on her support base a little bit, but what about the black vote? There's been a lot of talk about that and where it would go.

FIEDLER: Well, I think the black vote is critical in the Florida election as part of the -- naturally, as part of the Democratic base. It is very energized coming out of the -- last November's presidential election because the African American community, I think, feels more keenly than any other community that it was a victim of the whole debacle of the hanging chads, the faulty machines and all of that kind of thing. They are looking for an opportunity to get vengeance against the Republican party and Jeb Bush becomes the target there.

But Janet Reno also has a strong appeal to environmentalist in this state. Jeb Bush, again, may have to carry some of the baggage of his brother in Washington on environmental issues.

And, of course, women voters would, I think, be drawn also to Miss Reno.

MCEDWARDS: Tom Fiedler we have to leave it. Thanks very much for your time this morning.

FIEDLER: It's a pleasure.

MCEDWARDS: Appreciate it.

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