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American Morning

War Room: What a Difference a Day Can Make in Strategy for U.S.-Led War Against Terrorism in Afghanistan

Aired November 13, 2001 - 09:26   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: What a difference a day can make, what a difference a week can make as far as the strategy goes in the U.S.-led war against terrorism in and over Afghanistan. To talk about the shifting tides of this and how this retreat might or might not be tactical, which is to say laying a trap for the U.S. and for the Northern Alliance, we return to our retired Major General Donald Shepperd, our military analyst.

Let's begin with a big picture of the region, General Shepperd. We spent so much time over the past two months talking about lining up this coalition with Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, staging bases just to the north of Afghanistan, as well as in Pakistan, in order to allow, ultimately, forces to move into Afghanistan either by air or over land. All of that could change in an instant, with the fact that this region, pretty much two-thirds of the country, appears to be controlled by the Northern Alliance, or does it?

MAJ. GEN. DONALD SHEPPERD, (RET.) CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Well, it appears to be controlled by the Northern Alliance. These bases did not become irrelevant. Uzbekistan, now bases being looked at in Tajikistan, here as well, bases in Pakistan, ships in the Arabian Sea. All of it are key to supporting what remains to be done, which is consolidating all of these military gains, and making sure that nothing bad happens afterward, so we don't lapse into the guerrilla warfare that we're...

O'BRIEN: Would you expect significant U.S. presence at some of the bases which has been seized here by the Northern Alliance over the past week.

SHEPPERD: I would not expect it. I would expect a rush to have a U.N.-mandated forces from Islamic countries, not Arab countries, but Islamic countries, to come in and provide stability and not the insertion of large numbers of U.S. forces.

O'BRIEN: And that's a critical point when you start dealing with the region as a whole, Pakistan in particular here, very skittish right now with the Northern Alliance in control of Kabul. The hope was that they hold back, wait for a tribal council to come up with a coalition. And now that you've got the Northern Alliance essentially in control of Kabul, it's sort of hard to undo that, isn't it?

SHEPPERD: Yes, we're hurrying up to back up now. The military has outrun the diplomacy, and we now have to back up into diplomacy and get this political solution that's acceptable to all of the countries, including Iran, including Pakistan, including all of the factions in Afghanistan, in place.

O'BRIEN: All right, which brings out the point of controlling the Northern Alliance. The U.S. has been aiding the Northern Alliance with airpower. Obviously, there are special forces on the ground providing assistance, but nevertheless, they are an independent force. And the issue becomes, how do you pull the strings back? As we take a look at some images, and these are graphic images, we want to warn you, we've been showing you the celebrations, but along with the celebrations many casualties, Taliban casualties, as the Northern Alliance answer into Kabul, and the concern is, with the deep-seated hatred that lies between these ethnic groups, to what extent can the U.S. control what might or might not happen in the wake of this victory?

SHEPPERD: Years, decades, centuries of hatred and tribal warfare within Afghanistan itself, and we are going to assert maximum influence through our special forces that are with the troops to not engage in this type of thing. It's a part of every war. All of us been to war have seen this terrible thing, and every one of us.

O'BRIEN: So special forces, meaning potentially green berets with language capabilities, or at least translators there to say, wait a minute, if you engage in atrocities, you will pay consequences one way or another.

SHEPPERD: Absolutely. They're sending that message. The U.S. message is sending that type of message, do not do this type of thing, gain control, win the hearts of the people, win their support, do not engage in atrocities and unneeded killing.

O'BRIEN: All right, now historically, Afghanistan has been a country that has sort of beckoned in its enemies, and then lied and waited them out and massacred them, to what extent could the U.S and the Northern Alliance fall in that trap here as the Taliban retreats toward Kandahar. Is there a trap that lies for them?

SHEPPERD: The U.S. and its coalition forces have said they will not fall into the trap of guerrilla warfare, going tunnel by tunnel. We won't play their game, and we haven't to date. Now, again, you have to consolidate their gains in all of these areas. The next area is Kandahar. Lots of action reportedly going on there now, Taliban reportedly retreating down there. But look at the mountains between Kabul and Kandahar, the foot of the Hindu Kush (ph). You can put guerrilla warfare into all of these caves for years and ambush convoys, et cetera. We don't want that to happen.

O'BRIEN: In a sense -- and as I say, the situation very fluid in Kandahar right now, report that the airfield might have in fact fallen from some sources. We're still working on that one.

But if that were the case, the Taliban would either be completely dispersed on in the mountains. Effectively, they have no more control over the country. That's still does not get the U.S. to its ultimate goal, which is Osama bin Laden, Al Qaeda.

SHEPPERD: Right. The Al Qaeda can hide in all these areas. They can disperse to other nations. They dispersed to Pakistan, to Chechnya, to all of the areas we talked about before. We want these Al Qaeda cells. We want bin Laden. We think they're in these area right now. But digging them out is going to take time. This war is not over.

O'BRIEN: All right, to what extent is there a temptation on the part of military planners seeing this route, and I think at this point could call a route, potentially; seeing that route, taking advantage of that, and using it as an opportunity to bring in U.S. ground forces in more significant numbers.

SHEPPERD: I think that's highly unlikely. I think we would like to have the Afghans doing as much as this as possible and Islamic nations. I don't think you will see large number of U.S. forces inserted. If it becomes necessary, General Franks has the basing outside the country and now within the country control to do that. But anytime you put bases in, you provide targets as well. We'll be very careful about that. I doubt you will see huge numbers of U.S. forces in Afghanistan.

O'BRIEN: Twenty-four hours ago, would you have predicted this?

SHEPPERD: Not at all.

O'BRIEN: All right, General Don Sheppard, retired U.S. Air Force, our military analyst.

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