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American Morning

Interview of Scott Krugman, National Retailers Federation

Aired December 24, 2001 - 07:49   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: You still have some Christmas shopping to do? Well you better get cracking today. Of course, this is the last day of shopping before Christmas and if you do go out to the malls, retailers will undoubtedly be very, very happy to see you. Let's talk about the retail forecast, how things are doing, how things look in store for the coming weeks. Scott Krugman is with the National Retailers Federation. He joins us from Washington with more on all of this. Scott, it's a pretty dismal year so far or maybe not?

SCOTT KRUGMAN, NATIONAL RETAILERS FEDERATION: Well some people think it's more dismal that it might actually be. The National Retail Federation was predicting a holiday sales increase between two and a half and three and a half percent this holiday season. Heading into the last week before Christmas, we seem to be at around 2.9 percent. Good, but not as good as it could be. There'll still be the lowest increase in a decade.

O'BRIEN: All right, a couple of things we have going in favor of retailers. Gas prices are real low. That always helps the economy in general as well as making it cheaper to get to the mall. But also a lot of people canceled trips that might have a little extra money in their wallet. Do you think that people now, as it gets closer to Christmas are perhaps using that money for -- to buy a little more than they thought they might?

KRUGMAN: You bring up some excellent points. Consumers do have a lot more discretionary income than some may think and we find although consumer confidence might be down in light of some of the great bargains that retailers have this year, consumers are saying they're more than willing to open their wallets.

O'BRIEN: All right and let's talk about those bargains. As aggressive as ever or even more so this year as far as retailers putting things on sale before Christmas?

KRUGMAN: This has probably been the single most promotional holiday season that we've seen in our history. Consumers are -- rather retailers are using every weapon in their arsenal to bring consumers out to the malls and that biggest weapon is discounts.

O'BRIEN: Let me ask you this. In times of uncertainty, are people more inclined to wait to the last minute? In other words, just to sort of reserve all options, if you will, right at the last minute. KRUGMAN: You know I really think it's in consumer's nature to wait until the last minute no matter what. The last week of Christmas usually 30 percent maybe 31 percent of total sales are done. The week following Christmas up to 10 percent of sales can be done.

O'BRIEN: All right, that's the picture. It's a good time to go shopping they say. The sales are out there now and they'll certainly be there the day after Christmas, if you choose to do that as well. We appreciate your being with us. With the National Retailers Federation, Scott Krugman out of Washington. Thank you. Go to (ph) holiday.

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