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American Morning
Insights on Pakistani-Indian Animosity
Aired December 26, 2001 - 08:18 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: For some additional insight in the long-standing animosity between India and Pakistan and whether it might interfere with the U.S. war on terror, we're joined from Washington by Robert Oakley, the former U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan. Mr. Ambassador, thanks for being with us.
ROBERT OAKLEY, FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR TO PAKISTAN: Good morning.
O'BRIEN: The fact that the U.S. has become closer to Pakistan in all of this, is this in any way changing the dynamic there and perhaps emboldening some of these militants to engage in these attacks?
OAKLEY: I think quite the contrary. Pakistan is increasingly aware of the need to crack down upon these militant organizations like the Lashkar and the Jaish because they're a threat to Pakistan, but they can't do it too rapidly.
Unlike Afghanistan, where the Qaeda Arabs are seen as occupiers, these people are seen as freedom fighters in Kashmir, and the dispute between India and Pakistan over Kashmir is over 50 years old. And Pakistan has to move carefully in dealing with this problem, particularly in the face of Indian troop mobilization.
The Pakistani Army will not back down, so this could be a very dangerous situation unless there's restraint showed on the Indian side and a little bit more action on the Pakistani side. But the Pakistanis have to act quietly and gradually. They can't do it all at once.
O'BRIEN: How much anxiety do you suppose there is in India as the country has watched the U.S. become closer with Pakistan through the war on terror?
OAKLEY: Well I think there has been anxiety. I think it's unnecessary anxiety because the basic relationship between the United States and India is strong. India has global reach. Pakistan is a regional power. The United States and India have a lot of things in common that go beyond the relationship with Pakistan as far as the U.S. is concerned.
The Indians have been anxious about it. I think that's right. They're also anxious about their domestic political situation, and they say well we have to mobilize otherwise the domestic political situation will get out of control. I think that's a mistake because the situation with Pakistan could get out of control, then you'd have the possibility of war with two nuclear powers, which no one wants.
I think the United States can play a key role in adverting this crisis as they have in 1997, 1990 and again with the situation in Cargill in 1999 -- 8, excuse me. So, by signaling the fact that we've got to deal with a basic problem and by getting India to back off a little bit, and Pakistan to quietly increase the pressure to bring these groups under control, I think the United States can play the pivotal role in draining the swamp as Secretary Rumsfeld called it.
O'BRIEN: How much leverage does the U.S. have with Pakistan right now on this particular issue?
OAKLEY: It's a question of how one goes about it. We need to exercise restraint on our own side. We have to show some positive benefits to Pakistan, going beyond what's happened so far and at the same time, we need to encourage them to quietly crack down. I think they are willing to do that.
I don't believe the Pakistani government had anything to do with what happened in New Delhi -- the attack upon the Parliament. And I think they abhor it just as much as anybody else does. These groups have gotten out of control. They know that. They're trying to bring them under control, but it's going to take time because the domestic situation in Pakistan is very, very inflamed at the moment.
They feel humiliated a bit and beat upon about what's happened in Afghanistan where they've had to reverse their policy. They're doing it. The army's held together. I hope the army will continue to hold together, but they will be very firm in the face of any Egyptian -- I mean with any Indian military challenges in the kind we've seen -- very firm.
So I want us to be careful on the line of control and elsewhere where the troops are being mobilized. It diverts attention; diverts resources from Pakistan's war with al Qaeda and the Taliban on the other side of the country.
O'BRIEN: Is it likely Mr. Ambassador that their situation is going to escalate in the near term?
OAKLEY: There's no need for it. If India continues to increase the military pressure, it might escalate and that's where one has to be very, very careful. Accidentally or deliberately there could be some clashes across the line of control or across the international border farther south.
In this case, Pakistan will respond. At that point, it could get totally out of hand. I saw where Ambassador Narbiah, the British -- the Indian Ambassador to Pakistan talked about getting out of control. Emotions can become very, very strong in both countries.
The leadership from both sides have to tone down the political rhetoric; more quiet dialogue. If they can't do it directly at the moment, using the United States and work on the long-term problems both inside Kashmir where there's a lot of problems in and of themselves beyond the Islamic groups and between Pakistan and India.
O'BRIEN: Robert Oakley is the former U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan. Thank you very much for your time this morning sir.
OAKLEY: You're very welcome.
O'BRIEN: All right.
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