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American Morning

Economy Expected to be Big Focus in State of the Union

Aired January 29, 2002 - 08:08   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: One thing we probably won't hear from the president tonight is a lot of talk about the E word as in Enron, although there may be some references to the other E word as in the economy.

For another perspective on what we might look for this evening, let's turn to a man who has seen a bunch of these and has some thoughts on what we might look for, Jeff Greenfield, who is our seasoned political observer here on CNN. He joins us from Washington -- good morning, Jeff -- good to see you.

JACK GREENFIELD, SENIOR ANALYST: Hi, Jack. How are you doing?

CAFFERTY: Traditionally these things become a triumph of form over substance. What do you expect here tonight?

GREENFIELD: Well, they have become that way. The State of the Union address traditionally is a big laundry list of government initiatives. In the age of television, it has, indeed, become as much spectacle. But I think because this one still is in the shadow of September 11, it will be a very different State of the Union speech. I don't think you're going to see President Bush get up and announce new Department of Transportation initiatives for high-speed rail or the National Park Service reform.

We have been told -- these things are leaked out or doled out days before. And it's three themes. It's terrorism, Homeland Security and the economy, and that's what makes this State of the Union so really strikingly different.

CAFFERTY: What does he do not to make a mistake? He's got it all going for him. He is very high in the polls across the board. We have been successful so far in prosecuting the war on terrorism. The economy happens to be coming out of recession at about the time that he gives his second State of the Union address. Is the risk for him not to make a mistake here and to just kind of ride the crest of the successes that he is enjoying at this time?

GREENFIELD: You make a really interesting point. I think we have known for years, as biographers have told us, that George W. Bush is very focused on what his father did wrong politically. Ten years ago tonight, George Bush, facing the lingering effects of a recession, went before the Congress. It was a much touted speech. It was -- quote -- the birth of that wretched phrase, "defining moment." And because he didn't have particular things to say about the economy, it didn't work. And it kind of began George Bush's 11 month descent into defeat.

So the question really will be you've got a president who really remembers what happened to his dad. And I think the mistake he could make, although I can't imagine it will happen given his focus, would be to be indifferent to the impact of the economy in general, and maybe even Enron in particular. I just think it's beyond belief that this president, in particular, could possibly make the mistake that brought his father down.

CAFFERTY: As far as the Democrats are concerned, where is he vulnerable besides Enron?

GREENFIELD: Well, for the Democrats, that would be like saying "Apart from that Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?"

CAFFERTY: Yes, right.

GREENFIELD: What I think they think they think about Enron is that it puts into bold relief what has been since his inauguration the single biggest doubt about George W. Bush, namely that he is too much in thrall to big business in general, and to Texas energy oil companies in particular.

The war on terrorism has helped deflect that, and I think the Democrats would say, all right, you know, we're going to be with him. We're going to be absolutely by his side, stapled to his side on the issue of terrorism. No distance between us, but we will point out that that's not enough, and we can show you historical evidence that where an economy is weak, where people think the president is not paying enough attention to the economy, we can find some political running room there.

And Enron helps us, which is why, by the way, as a one time and long retired speech writer, you think if you put yourself in the position of what you would do if you were in that situation, I think actually a brief mention of Enron head on would be very, very smart. Politicians tend to use evasive language in general, when they don't want to talk about unpleasant things, and it's always, I think, bracing to hear a president put something difficult right on the table. So I wouldn't be surprised to hear the E word, as they are saying, used tonight.

CAFFERTY: Yes, a lot of questions about the strategy of stonewalling this request for the information about these meetings that took place during the formulation of the energy policy. What about their strategy? Are they making it look like they are trying to hide something, whether they have anything to hide or not?

GREENFIELD: I think there is something to that. I mean, you know, the whether or not this is a principle defense of executive privilege or not. You know, in Washington people love to talk about the appearance of things. But you know, if you were really inventive, maybe the president could just turn over his -- let me think -- left shoulder and bring Dick Cheney to the microphone and have him announce that he will fully cooperate, and boy, then watch the Democrats sound like Ralph Kramden on the "Honeymooners," you know, (UNINTELLIGIBLE). But I'm not predicting....

(CROSSTALK)

CAFFERTY: ... bullets out of a gun.

GREENFIELD: Yes, I am not predicting this.

CAFFERTY: Is Cheney even going to be there? Do we know yet?

GREENFIELD: I don't think we know -- no, I don't -- let me put it this way. I don't know. I am sure the White House knows, but they haven't bothered to call me.

CAFFERTY: All right. Well, if they do, let us know, would you?

GREENFIELD: You'll be the first to know, Jack.

CAFFERTY: OK. Jeff Greenfield joining us this morning from Washington. And of course, stay tuned to CNN for live coverage of the president's State of the Union address beginning at 8:00 with Judy Woodruff, Aaron Brown and the aforementioned Jeff Greenfield, and of course, the speech begins promptly at 9:00.

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