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American Morning

Discussion with Former U.N. Chief Weapons Inspector Richard Butler

Aired February 04, 2002 - 07:36   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: After an absence of several weeks, we are pleased to welcome back our own ambassador-in-residence, Richard Butler, and the music still has its flourish, Richard. The former United Nations chief weapons inspector now with the Council on Foreign Relations -- good to see you. There's a lot to talk about this morning.

RICHARD BUTLER, FORMER UNITED NATIONS CHIEF WEAPONS INSPECTOR: There is, Paula, and it's great to be back, and having seen the Super Bowl last night, what a fabulous event outcome and show of patriotism -- great.

ZAHN: Yes, that was...

BUTLER: Yes.

ZAHN: ... some of the commercials that were related to that were very moving.

BUTLER: Yes.

ZAHN: And I thought the whole half-time show...

BUTLER: It was great.

ZAHN: ... spoke to that beautifully. Let's talk a little bit about this proposed massive increase in defense spending.

BUTLER: Right.

ZAHN: Now, the Europeans are absolutely ballistic, are they not, over what President Bush had to say in his State of the Union speech. How might that affect this budget?

BUTLER: Well, they are. There are two things happening there. One is this very substantial increase in our defense spending, and I am sure the Congress will approve it. As we just pointed out in that report, that puts us ahead of all of the next 15 countries combined.

Now, what this highlights isn't so much that we are going to spend all of this money to fight the so-called "axis of evil." It highlights that Europeans have been getting a free ride for 30 years. They have spent almost nothing on their defense and have relied instead on NATO, and of course, U.S. expenditure. And what has happened as a result is that we are so far ahead in technology, as we saw in Kosovo and then in Afghanistan, the secretary general of NATO, Lord Robertson, has himself pointed out that Europe is just a second team player now, and that is really annoying them.

Put in the issue of "axis of evil," and we've got something brewing there that is, I think, worrying in terms of our relationship with the Europeans.

ZAHN: Well, a lot of Europeans thought that it was simply irresponsible. And it's interesting to note that Brent Scowcroft, who is intimately involved in President Bush's (UNINTELLIGIBLE) presidents, he also thought it was a mistake to use that phrase, the "axis of evil."

BUTLER: Well, unfortunately I think I agree with that. Let's be clear. Iraq is a very serious problem, and we're going to hear more about that, and certainly the president signaled that. I think it's no longer a case of what will happen with Iraq, but just when. Iran is also a problem, as we saw most recently with the shipment of arms from Iran to Israel, and there are other reasons to be concerned about Iran. North Korea is a problem with its missile program.

But I think what has worried a lot of people, certainly in Europe and to some extent here in the United States, is this overarching concept of an "axis of evil" puts them all together, when they are actually three different problems. It almost implies that in some way they are in cooperation with each other, and they are not. And I think that's what has given people a lot of concern.

And in Europe, the major countries, in particular Germany and to some extent the U.K., are asking whether this means that the U.S., contrary to what they thought after September 11 when the U.S. was going in for a lot of cooperation, is now going to go back to unilateralism, just taking action by itself when it says so. And that worries the hell out of the Europeans.

ZAHN: And as this action is being threatened against Iraq, now you have an interesting sidebar story about what's going on between the Russians and Iraq. Where is President Putin on this?

BUTLER: That's a fascinating story. The Russians are our new friend since September 11, a new ally. But I think this is going to strain that relationship very, very seriously. Russia has got bit interests in Iraq. I think...

ZAHN: Well, Iraq owes Russia a lot of money, right?

BUTLER: Owes them $8 billion from Cold War arms purchases. But Iraq has promised Russia -- are you ready for this -- $40 billion worth of oil contracts the minute they are able to pump oil once they are out of sanctions. Now, Russia has got big interests in Iraq, interests which I think are actually wrong and damaging. But if we go and attack Iraq, this will be showdown time in the relationship between Russia and the United States. ZAHN: Now to quickly move onto the Middle East. It seems that Yasser Arafat took to negotiating in "The New York Times" yesterday in an op-ed piece.

BUTLER: Right.

ZAHN: It would also seem that there was a complete nonstarter there, when he talked about returning to the negotiating table at a time, when he wants hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees to return to a Palestinian state.

BUTLER: Yes. I agree.

ZAHN: That's not going to go anywhere.

BUTLER: No, I don't think so, Paula. Yasser Arafat was described recently, I think accurately, as a dead man walking, partly because of that Iranian shipment of arms, but for other reasons as well. In fact, I think we used that appellation for him on this program. So...

ZAHN: You are always there first, Richard.

BUTLER: You are. We are trying -- he is trying to resurrect himself, perhaps an appropriate word in the Middle East context, and he wrote this piece in "The New York Times" to do so. Paula, it said a lot of the right things, but the killer right at the end was the right for all of those Palestinians overseas to return, not just to West Bank or Gaza, you know, a smaller Palestine, but to what is in fact Israel today.

Now, Israel can't accept that, I am sure. I mean, they would become overwhelmed, and this is a sticking point, and they are sticking to that point.

ZAHN: Some would perceive that as two Palestinian states, right?

BUTLER: That's right.

ZAHN: Distinct Palestinian states.

BUTLER: Yes. The one that would be established, 22 percent of the 1967 land, but there would be an inner Palestinian presence with Israel. I don't think any Israeli prime minister, and certainly not this rather aggressive one that we have now, could accept that.

So you know, Arafat's piece was pretty good in some ways. He was saying all the right things about peace and settlement, et cetera, you know, sweet reasonableness. And you know, take it at face value. But when he came to this issue, I mean, it's a deal breaker, and there he was saying all of these people must be able to return. That's not going to happen. So I don't know where the dead man walking goes frankly.

ZAHN: Well, based on what the administration officials had to say yesterday on the Sunday talk shows, they didn't make much of his comments either.

BUTLER: Yes. I think...

ZAHN: They didn't even take it at face value I don't think.

BUTLER: Yes.

ZAHN: Glad to have you back.

BUTLER: Glad to be here.

ZAHN: We missed you.

BUTLER: OK.

ZAHN: Richard Butler, our ambassador-in-residence back on A.M.

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