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American Morning

Middle East Trip Likely Difficult for Powell

Aired April 08, 2002 - 07:08   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Israel's military offensive continues this morning in the West Bank, despite President Bush's call for Israeli troops to withdraw. Secretary of State Colin Powell, meanwhile, is headed to the region, a man on a peace mission. Before leaving yesterday, Powell did his best to lower expectations.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

COLIN POWELL, SECRETARY OF STATE: It's going to be a difficult trip. I am not going to come back at the end of this trip with a peace treaty in hand, and I'm not even sure I'll have a cease-fire in hand. But that will be my goal, to try to help both sides out of this tragic situation in which they find themselves.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ZAHN: Powell is scheduled to arrive in Israel later this week, and says he will then meet with Palestinian leader, Yasser Arafat, if circumstances permit.

Joining us now to talk about Powell's peace mission is the author of one Mideast peace plan, former U.S. Senator George Mitchell -- always good to see you -- welcome.

GEORGE MITCHELL, FORMER U.S. SENATOR: Thank you, Paula. It's good to be here.

ZAHN: First of all, your reaction to some of what Ariel Sharon has had to say earlier on in the day in Israel -- for starters, no immediate withdrawal.

MITCHELL: Well, it's a direct challenge to President Bush, of course, and it greatly complicates Secretary Powell's mission. I think there is still some hope that the withdrawal will at least begin by the time Powell gets there, making it easier for him to move forward with the mission that he just described here in the brief comment that you showed.

ZAHN: Is Prime Minister Sharon trying to derail Colin Powell's mission here?

MITCHELL: I doubt that. I think that he has the initiative and intends to exploit it to the maximum. But I would be surprised, because Israel is very dependent upon the United States, and President Bush has been particularly supportive of Prime Minister Sharon.

ZAHN: Senator Mitchell, if you don't mind for a second, we are able to get a live shot up out of Baghdad and our correspondent Jane Arraf, who wants to update us on a call that the Iraqi president made just moments ago. Jane, what is his call for?

JANE ARRAF, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Paula, it was pretty dramatic. President Saddam Hussein announced that effective immediately, Iraq is stopping oil exports. Now, those are all of its oil exports under the U.N. Oil for Food Program. It's about 1.5 million barrels a day, and the important point is a lot of those exports go indirectly to the United States.

Now, the Iraqi leader described this as an action taken against what he calls a Zionist entity, Israel of course, and the U.S. for its support of Israel in the current conflict against the Palestinians. And President Saddam Hussein appeared on Iraqi TV in a surprise message to Iraqis and the Palestinians to announce this move. He said effective immediately, all oil would stop through the oil pipeline through Turkey and through the oil terminal in the Gulf. Now, that effectively means that there will be no money coming in for the Oil for Food Program, a move that could potentially hurt the Iraqi people as much as it helps the Palestinian people -- Paula.

ZAHN: All right. Jane Arraf, thanks for that update. Senator Mitchell, your reaction to that.

MITCHELL: Well, the Iraqi supply is not so great that by itself it will have an adverse effect, but as you know, both Iran and Libya have already expressed support for such a move. The real key, of course, as always in oil is Saudi Arabia. The Saudis have not indicated any desire, and in fact in the year 2000, less than two years ago, they led an effort to get the countries that export oil to pledge not to use oil as a political tool.

Obviously they are under great pressure now, and it depends upon how they react, I think. If in fact, Saudi Arabia joins the effort, then I think there will be very severe repercussions throughout the Western world, including the United States economy.

ZAHN: And what kind of a role does Kuwait play in this? Because it is not certain which way Kuwait is going to go on this at this hour, is it?

MITCHELL: No. Kuwait is very significant. Of course, they are extremely hostile to Iraq and Saddam Hussein as a result of the invasion of Iraq -- of Kuwait by Iraq 10 years ago. But there is a lot of pressure on all of these Arab states, as you know, as you have shown on your screen, tremendous turmoil. There is a feeling in the Arab countries that their governments are helpless in the face of this, and that feeds this resentment. So it's impossible to know what will occur at this moment.

ZAHN: But we do know that as a result of this news this morning, oil prices have already shot up almost $2 a barrel. That's significant. MITCHELL: It is significant. That's the immediate reaction. Let's hope that it subsides or it doesn't continue. As I said, I think the Saudi reaction will be the key. One thing to keep in mind is that in many of these countries, the percentage of revenue that they get from oil has increased in 10 years. So they are themselves dependent upon oil exports for revenue, and it would be seriously adverse to their own economies to stop this now.

Saddam Hussein is a particular case. His export revenue goes into the Food for Peace Program that goes to the people, and he has obviously demonstrated a complete disregard for the people in his own country. I don't think the other Arab leaders have the same attitude that he does, or the same constraints they do with respect to oil revenues.

ZAHN: Let's come back to Colin Powell's challenge for a moment. He said yesterday he would meet with Yasser Arafat if possible. Do you think the Israelis will allow him to meet with Arafat once he gets there?

MITCHELL: If he says he wants to meet with him, I think they will allow him to do so. They permitted General Zinni to meet with Arafat, and I think it will be up to Secretary Powell. It's his call, and it will depend upon the circumstances at the time. But if I had to guess, I would guess that he will do it.

ZAHN: And what of the significance of Sharon's comments earlier today that he wants to deal with moderate Arab leaders?

MITCHELL: It's very unlikely that any Arab leader will meet with him under the present circumstances. That would be my guess. But obviously it's a positive sign that he has expressed a willingness to do so, but he has expressed that willingness previously. I think most of the Arab leaders will take the position that the person for him to see is Arafat and the Palestinians, and that they would not get involved in between the two of them.

ZAHN: As you know, there has been tremendous analysis of the Bush administration's posture here. You have had a number of former Clinton administration officials saying the policy has been all but incoherent. I wanted to read to you something former National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote in "The New York Times" yesterday that the U.S. has some big public relations of its own to do before it can play policy peacemaker.

Here is what he wrote: "There is a new unanimous global consensus that the United States policy has become one-sided and morally hypocritical with clear displays of sympathy for Israeli victims of terrorist violence and relative indifference to the Palestinian civilian casualties. At risk is America's ability to maintain international support for the war on terrorism and especially for plans to deal with Saddam Hussein."

MITCHELL: Well, I think that feeling certainly exists among the Arab states' to a lesser degree among some European countries, but not all of them. I don't think it is as clear and unanimous as suggested in that commentary.

I also think that the United States does have a commitment to Israel, which is an important part of our policy to the region, but that does not preclude us from also serving as the middle person or the so-called honest broker in the Middle East. I think we can maintain that commitment and also maintain our position of leadership among the two.

It's quite significant that the Palestinians accepted President Bush's statement within minutes after he made it. And their continued demand is for more American involvement, not less. So they have made it clear they want the United States very deeply involved. In fact, right now what they are calling for is, of course, everyone to observe what President Bush has asked for.

ZAHN: Senator George Mitchell, always good to have your perspective. Thank you.

MITCHELL: Thank you, Paula.

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