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American Morning
Author Discusses Rising Kashmir Tensions
Aired May 30, 2002 - 09:09 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: OK, on to Pakistan and India, as they move closer to what's threatening to become an all-out war. News today that Pakistan has actually begun moving troops away from the Afghan border to face off with India in Kashmir. The escalating tensions between the two nuclear-armed countries is a major cause of concern to the United States, which, of course, has been relying on Pakistan's help in containing al Qaeda and Taliban fighters.
There are also new reports that the conflict in Kashmir is being deliberately fueled by al Qaeda.
And joining us now from Geneva is Eric Margolis, who is the author of "War at the Top of the World."
Eric, good to see you again. Welcome.
ERIC MARGOLIS, AUTHOR "WAR AT THE TOP OF THE WORLD": Bonjour, Paula, from Geneva.
ZAHN: Well, I love the way that greeting sounds. On to the day's business. Is the end goal pretty clear to you that what al Qaeda is trying to do is force Pakistan to move its troops from the Afghan border, thereby undermining the U.S.-led war effort in Afghanistan?
MARGOLIS: Paula, yes. Al Qaeda has been doing this since last December. But it's not only al Qaeda: There are other militant Islamic groups who are fighting Indian rule in Kashmir who have also been staging attack, groups that are not necessarily under control of the Pakistani intelligence services. Both groups have been trying to fuel a conflict between India and Pakistan as a way of undermining the American campaign in Afghanistan, and also undoing Gen. Musharraf, the Pakistani strongman, who is increasingly seen by many of his people as a client of the United States.
ZAHN: Does Musharraf survive this politically?
MARGOLIS: I think his rule is becoming increasingly fragile, Paula. There's growing dissatisfaction with him. There would probably be more if it weren't for the military confrontation with India.
And I have little doubt that Gen. Musharraf and his allies are happy to have this confrontation in a sense of keeping them in power. Though it is exceptionally dangerous, and we really are on the verge of a major conventional and even nuclear war.
ZAHN: How close do you think we are to nuclear war?
MARGOLIS: We are one incident away from a conventional war. Another high-profile attack on the Indians -- the Indians have boxed themselves in a corner -- they have said that if there are any more attacks, either by Pakistani-based groups or some of the 22 groups who are operating inside Indian Kashmir, that they will launch an attack on Pakistan. And then there's another attack, and they don't do anything.
So the Hindu fundamentalist government that's ruling India -- and they're ruling the coalition -- is looking very embarrassed and is under tremendous public pressure inside of India to do something. But to do what? They're talking about launching commando raids against these militant bases inside of the Pakistani Kashmir. But such action could quickly escalate into general war, and that, in turn, could escalate into a nuclear war, because India is far more powerful than Pakistan. Pakistan may be forced to go nuclear very quickly.
ZAHN: William Safire of "The New York Times" writes this morning, quote, "The West is trying to prevent a war. But where is diplomatic help from the nation that made Pakistan a nuclear power? That's China. Time for a call from Dick Cheney to his counterpart in Beijing."
Do you see China getting involved in this?
MARGOLIS: I absolutely do, Paula. Pakistan is China's most important ally, and vice versa. China and India have been in a long arms nuclear and conventional arms race for the last decade, which we in the West have completely ignored. China may not let Pakistan be crushed by India. And China feels that India is being built up by the United States as a counterweight to China.
They've been saber-rattling at each other, and it's very possible that there could be some form of Chinese military intervention. I do not think, as Safire says, that Chinese diplomatic intervention is going to help very much. We have to have all of the outside powers putting pressure on India, which is threatening to attack Pakistan, and on Pakistan to ratchet down the pressure and start beginning some kind of meaningful negotiations over this 55-year-old issue of Kashmir.
ZAHN: Well, Eric Margolis, I think you helped us much better understand the complexity of this situation there, and we will be relying on you down the road to keep us educated here -- thank you for your time this morning. Au revoir.
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