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American Morning

Is Bin Laden Still Alive?

Aired June 07, 2002 - 07:42   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Despite the success of the U.S. campaign in Afghanistan to drive out the Taliban, questions persist about al Qaeda and its ringleader, Osama bin Laden. Is he alive? Does he have access to weapons of mass destruction?

Peter Bergen, CNN's terrorism analyst, is author of "Holy War, Inc." has spent the last month in the region tracking down some of the latest information. He joins us now. Good to see you. Is Osama bin Laden alive?

PETER BERGEN, CNN TERRORISM ANALYST: There is no evidence he is dead, so it's quite possible he is alive. If he is alive, he is really not in particularly good health. The last videotape that we saw of him, really the last reliable, videotape. He celebrated his 45th birthday this year. He looked like he was he was in his early 60s. So if he is alive, he is not in great shape. But I don't think he is dead.

ZAHN: That doesn't mean he is incapacitated to the point where he can't run al Qaeda though.

BERGEN: I think that al Qaeda is -- you know, the entire population of the organization is either on the run or captured or killed. Surely that must impact their ability to organize complex operations that they have done in the past.

ZAHN: But they have been very patient in the past too.

BERGEN: They have been very patient. They took five years to bomb the U.S. embassies in Africa in 1998; 9/11 probably took two or three years of planning. So patience, unfortunately, is one of their hallmarks, and it is possible that they had something in the pipeline before 9/11, another attack, which may not have been disrupted. So unfortunately, patience is one of their hallmarks, yes.

ZAHN: So even though the organizational structure has been degraded by this campaign in Afghanistan, the fact is there are sleeper cells all over the world. A number of senators have said on camera they believe those sleeper cells are operating in the United States. Who would they be taking orders from now?

BERGEN: Well, unfortunately they may not be taking direct orders. If indeed there is another, let's say large attack in the pipeline before 9/11, it's quite possible that the train has left the station. So there is no need to give any orders.

Senator Bob Graham has told CNN (UNINTELLIGIBLE) that there were 100 sleeper al Qaeda within the United States, and that's an astonishingly large number unfortunately. And it is quite possible that those people don't need to take -- don't need a central headquarters to constantly (ph) tell them what to do.

ZAHN: What can you imagine the impact of the president's major announcement last night and the sweeping overhaul of Homeland Security might mean to their strategy? Anything at all?

BERGEN: I doubt it means anything (UNINTELLIGIBLE) to that, and I think (UNINTELLIGIBLE) the United States. But you know, reorganization of a cabinet position is not something that they are going to (UNINTELLIGIBLE) attention to, I don't think.

ZAHN: We mentioned you are just back from the region. To what extent is al Qaeda involved, do you believe, in increasing tensions between India and Pakistan? You know, the charge has been that their strategy would be to remove those troops from along the Afghanistan- Pakistan border to allow al Qaeda to reconfigure itself in that area.

BERGEN: Yes. You know, bin Laden and al Qaeda have always regarded India as one of their enemies. I mean, the United States, Israel and India are the commonly mentioned -- these countries in combination. If they can stir up trouble in India, that is something that they would want to do. And sadly, one of the results is increased tension between Pakistan and India is reducing the number of Pakistani troops on the Afghan border looking for al Qaeda.

So I think that al Qaeda is the present of Pakistan, and they certainly wants to make as much trouble as possible in the Kashmir area.

ZAHN: You have heard warning after warning of future potential attacks. Is there any doubt in your mind that America will be struck again by al Qaeda?

BERGEN: Well, I mean, every cabinet official has no doubt about it. I think that a catastrophic attack on the magnitude of 9/11 to me it seems very improbable. I mean, the kinds of attacks that we have seen since 9/11 by al Qaeda, the attempted attacks have been -- they tried to bomb U.S. embassies around the world, in Paris, Rome, Sarajevo and Macedonia. But these are not the same kind of attacks of 9/11. I just pray that 9/11 (UNINTELLIGIBLE), and I can't imagine with all of the increased security that we have that 9/11 or anything like it would happen again.

ZAHN: Although there has been increased speculation about Osama bin Laden's ability to get his hands on weapons of mass destruction.

BERGEN: Yes.

ZAHN: Maybe not the most sophisticated kind...

BERGEN: Right. ZAHN: ... but perhaps to use a dirty bomb.

BERGEN: Yes. To me, (UNINTELLIGIBLE) he doesn't have the materials for a dirty bomb. I mean, this group has made many, many efforts to acquire these kinds of materials, and met with nuclear scientists had a very strong impact. But these were not particularly good scientists. So while their interest in these weapons of mass destruction is intense, I think their ability to weaponize them may be rather limited.

However, I think that they do have these kinds of weapons, as you mentioned it, dirty bomb and some very limited chemical weapons. Where would they deploy them? That is the question. I think that deploying them in the United States would be quite difficult. Where else would they deploy them? They might have them in Afghanistan, but getting them to the targets, the only possibly scenario that is worrisome that they had already gotten these to their targets before 9/11. I think, at this moment, it's very unlikely that they could get them into the United States.

ZAHN: Peter Bergen, thank you for dropping by just in time for the construction work that has just gotten started just about eight floors below us. Congratulations on "Holy War Inc.," (UNINTELLIGIBLE).

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