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American Morning

Interview with Mark Perry, David Makovsky

Aired June 25, 2002 - 07:22   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: As promised, we have been gauging reaction now to the president's speech from yesterday, a significant speech going forward for how to achieve not only some sort of peace process in the Middle East, but potentially also future statehood for the Palestinian people.

Let's talk more about it. From Washington, two guests with two very different views. Mark Perry, managing editor of the "Middle East Review" and David Makovsky, senior fellow with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Gentlemen, good morning to both of you. Good to have you on with us today.

MARK PERRY, MANAGING EDITOR, "PALESTINIAN REPORT": Good morning.

DAVID MAKOVSKY, WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY: Good morning, Bill.

HEMMER: OK, I'm having a bit of a problem hearing you guys, but if you can speak again, we might try and work this out. In the meantime, though, Mark, I want to address my question to you first of all. Yasser Arafat had a rather simple statement to the president's speech from yesterday. I just want to quote him right now. He says, "The speech is a serious effort to push the peace process forward."

Mark, are these just words from the Palestinian leader or is he accepting the inevitability that he must step aside in order for a future to be forged for the Palestinian people?

PERRY: I think it's almost impossible to determine. I think that he is very disappointed in the speech and almost views it naively, that somehow the peace process is contingent on Palestinian good behavior at the same time that they're under occupation. That's a forlorn hope.

But I do believe that he thinks that he's going to have to step aside or move up, and I think that he will, into almost honorary presidency. There will be a prime minister, a very strong prime minister and a prime minister he will assist and put in place in the Palestinian Authority, and I think he is committed to that.

HEMMER: David, what about the thought about the president asking the Palestinians to act on their best behavior? What is in this for in terms of Israeli demands?

MAKOVSKY: Well, I think, you know, it's clear that Israel feels that with, so long as Arafat is at the leadership there's no peace. You could fill up an encyclopedia with the number of times a State Department spokesman has said Yasser Arafat has to stop terrorism. And the president took the bold move by saying I'm going to just say the truth now that we've been skirting for the last eight years, that there's not going to be a successful deal as long as Arafat is leader and I'm not going to invest U.S. prestige and effort in a diplomacy that I know is going to fail.

So I think it was very bold for him to do what he did. He's going to Canada now to the G8 summit and he will try to rally other countries to his positions since in the past Arafat has used, played Europe off against the United States. And I think if there is hope for reform and change, this could breathe new life in the peace process.

HEMMER: David, from the Israeli perspective, essentially three demands yesterday -- stop the settlement construction in the West Bank is one of them, withdraw to the previous positions of about two years ago and allow the Palestinian people to move freely through Gaza and through the West Bank.

The government right now of Ariel Sharon, are they willing to allow these items to go forward in order to make this possible?

MAKOVSKY: Well, I think if you look, Bill, at, you know, at the way the president said the words, and every word of this speech was fought over by his aides, he said as the security situation improves then he'll call on Israel to take reciprocal steps.

So I don't think he's calling on Israel to take these steps in a vacuum and I think that's a very important point. I think this point about settlements, he said in keeping with the Mitchell Commission, which has like 20 different recommendations for improving confidence, that also is pending an unconditional cessation of violence.

So any way you cut it, without stopping terrorism, you're not going to see this sort of movement. But I think he pointed things in the right direction.

HEMMER: I want to go back to the president's words from yesterday. Let's listen to them directly and come back and talk about them.

Here's President Bush at the White House.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Peace requires a new and different Palestinian leadership so that a Palestinian state can be born. I call on the Palestinian people to elect new leaders, leaders not compromised by terror. I call upon them to build a practicing democracy based on tolerance and liberty.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HEMMER: Mark, how much of this appeal yesterday was to the moderate base of the Palestinian people? How much of this was an appeal to moderate Arab leaders?

PERRY: I think it was a very strong appeal to both communities, to the Palestinians and to other Arabs and leaders in the Arab world. And I think it's going to be heeded. There is a strong reform movement now inside the Palestinian Authority. There are new cabinet ministers who are very committed to reform. There's a call for new elections, local governor elections and even a presidential election. Those are going to go forward.

I think that there is an impetus for reform that is very strong in the Palestinian Authority, but it's very hard for it to get started so long as that occupation continues and...

HEMMER: But what do you think...

PERRY: ... this is uppermost...

HEMMER: Yes, understood. What do you think about the president's comment, within three years Palestinian statehood could be achieved? Is that realistic or too optimistic?

PERRY: Well, I actually think that that deadline is too far away. I think that this could be done much more quickly. I hope within a year or two, if we can stop the violence, if there can be security guarantees put in place and if the occupation is eased, I think that we could move much more quickly than three years. And I was disappointed that the president only called for a Palestinian state in three years. It could happen much sooner.

HEMMER: I want to give -- and I apologize for the interruption. We're running short on time. David, your reaction to that? And number two, I want from you if the Israeli military really upgrades the fight right now on the West Bank, and especially Gaza -- there was a warning yesterday from Ariel Sharon, the prime minister -- how much of the speech yesterday and the effort that was laid down in Washington will be put to the side and basically forgotten for months and at that point is this opportunity then gone?

MAKOVSKY: OK. Well, I think you're right -- your point about the three years, I think he made a very interesting point. He said it could be in three years. And I think this is a real shift from the approach of the last 10 years, which is to say you know what? It's not going to be a time driven approach. It's going to be a performance based approach. And that this statehood is not about entitlement, it's about contingent on the form and security.

And by intertwining these two ideas, he sent out a message that had not been sent before and that I think gives hopes because it says you can make this as quick as you want, Palestinians, if you do these things. On the other hand, if you don't, this idea of statehood will fade into a distant mirage.

HEMMER: I sense an optimism in both your answers at certain corners and I guess that's the best thing we can hang it on today.

David Makovsky, Mark Perry, live in Washington. Thank you, men.

MAKOVSKY: Thank you.

PERRY: Thank you.

HEMMER: Appreciate your thoughts today.

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