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American Morning

Interview with Evan Thomas

Aired July 22, 2002 - 08:19   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Well, the war has gone well. His approval ratings still remain high. Now the president must deal with economic unrest here at home, from Wall Street to Main Street.

The dilemma facing George W. Bush is being compared to the same situation that helped doom his father's presidency. The comparisons are drawn in the current issue of "Newsweek" magazine.

And from Washington today, Evan Thomas of "Newsweek" joins us to talk more about it -- good morning to you. Good to see you.

EVAN THOMAS, ASSISTANT MANAGING EDITOR, "NEWSWEEK": Hi, Bill.

HEMMER: This thing has been thrown about in the public quite a bit. The article goes into great depth here. I want to pull a quote from the very beginning of that article.

Dan Bartlett, now serving as the communications director in the White House. He says now, and quoting, "The comparison is fundamentally flawed between 41 and 43. Even at 41's highest approval ratings after the Gulf War, he never broke 40 percent on handling the economy."

If true, so far the president has done better in that column, has he not?

THOMAS: Yes, he has. You know, I think there are important differences. We're fascinated with this story because it's sort of a Greek tragedy. Is it possible that the son is going to have exactly the same fate as the father of great success in a war and then having the economy drag him down?

But there are some important differences and the White House is not wrong about that. The most important difference is that the son is a better politician than the father. He's got a better common touch. He's got some real problems here, but I think he has a better capacity for showing that he cares than his father did.

HEMMER: I think your answer goes to the evidence in another quote from a White House aide, not identified, just a White House aide. And quoting now, "He," -- 41 -- "he didn't understand what was going on. This guy, 43, gets it. I doubt 41 sat glued the way we do at cable TV. This president always asks how is it playing?"

Is that evidence of him being a better politician?

THOMAS: I think so. I mean Bush, Jr., "W," President Bush, says he doesn't follow the polls. But he is a better instinctive politician. He's got Karl Rove, who does follow the polls very closely. And I just think he has a better -- now he's less likely to get himself caught in a trap.

One of the ironies of the father was that his economic policy was actually pretty good. We were coming out of a recession. In fact, we were out of a recession. We were doing the right things economically yet the father could not convey that to the American people. He just couldn't find a way to articulate it and he really shouldn't have lost that election based on the merits, on the substance of the economy.

HEMMER: You talk about number 41 and I think the next quote probably goes to that point that you're making again. And quoting now, "He," -- number 41, the father, "he made the right economic calculation but the political calculation was sheer disaster." He did not seem to be doing anything which left the impression that he did not care.

Has this president, in your estimation, shown that ability to the American public that, indeed, he has his finger on the pulse and, indeed, he cares?

THOMAS: He's showed it in the past. He's got to do a better job right now. He's getting tagged, the younger Bush, President Bush, is a child of privilege and entitlement. And right now that's starting to stick to him, that, you know, the joke is that he was born on third base and felt that he hit a triple.

He's got some problems with that, especially since what's worrying people right now is this crony capitalism, this insiders getting breaks. He's got to overcome that.

But he has an awfully long time. It is a long way between now and 2004. And frankly I think that foreign policy events are going to overwhelm all of this. I mean I think that either -- I hope it's not true -- but either another terrorist attack or that we're going to attack Iraq. And that is going to be more the voting issue than the economy by the time 2004 comes around.

HEMMER: It's an interesting thought because we're not even at the halfway point yet and the possibility of another terrorist hit is always out there, god forbid that it happens. But as you point out, though, if, indeed, that is the case, and you've got well over two years to go, you could throw all the balls back in the hopper and see what comes out then, right?

THOMAS: Yes. And I think this is a very, it's an interesting, fascinating speculation that the son could follow the problems of the father. But it really is too early and Bush is at his best, President Bush is at his best as a foreign policy leader, at least he was after 9/11. I hate to think that there's going to be another 9/11, but it's likely there'll be some kind of foreign policy crisis and if President Bush, younger, the younger Bush, can rise to that level of conviction and leadership, then he's got nothing to worry about.

HEMMER: Quickly, 15 seconds. Got four months till you've got a midterm election. How do you see right now the White House fanning out across the country trying to get the message out to make sure that the Republicans hang onto the House and get a shot at the Senate?

THOMAS: They do have a short-term problem. There's no Bob Rubin here. There's no economic leader in the White House who can rally the troops. So I think Bush in 2004 is OK for now. I do think the Republicans have a problem in 2002 in the midterm elections.

HEMMER: We will see that as it plays out this fall.

Thank you, Evan.

Evan Thomas, "Newsweek" magazine, in Washington.

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