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American Morning

Hussein Say He's Unafraid of Threat of War

Aired August 08, 2002 - 07:20   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Doomed to failure the defiant words today of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, today earlier responding sharply to rumors and reports of an impending U.S. attack. Hussein said he is unafraid of the threat of war, but also urged the U.S. to take another course.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SADDAM HUSSEIN, PRESIDENT, IRAQ, THROUGH TRANSLATOR: If they wanted peace and security for themselves and their people, then this is not the course to take. The right way is for the Security Council to reply to the questions raised by Iraq and to honor its obligations under its own resolutions.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HEMMER: Let's gauge more on this speech from Saddam Hussein and what a war with Iraq would mean.

Michael O'Hanlon, terrorism expert with the Brookings Institution in D.C.

Michael, good morning to you.

MICHAEL O'HANLON, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION, TERRORISM EXPERT: Good morning.

HEMMER: I guess there weren't any chestnuts in this thing, no big surprises here. What did you make of the speech?

O'HANLON: No big surprises, I think that's right. Saddam's trying to do several things at the same time. He's trying to show his supposed willingness to let back in U.N. inspectors. That's one part of it. He's reminding his people and the Arab world that he'll fight the United States if necessary. So it's this call to arms at the same time. That's another part of it. And then he's trying to sort of play the legalistic game by demanding these answers to his questions about when sanctions will end.

So he's trying to both sound very reasonable and at the same time very inflammatory and war like. And he's, I think it's an interesting strategy and it may actually work pretty well.

HEMMER: Why is that? O'HANLON: Well, I think the United States is in a tough position because Saddam at any point could allow inspectors to come back. And once he does, most of the world is not going to support any intended American war against Iraq. Even if the inspections won't be that promising, even if they won't likely work, the rest of the world will want to give them a chance, including the Saudis, who just again made that statement yesterday.

So if Saddam lets these inspectors back in, I think we're in a bit of a pickle. I think the Bush administration actually needs to change its policy a little bit right now and insist on tougher inspections and spell out what those tougher inspections would be. Otherwise Saddam may accept the existing ultimatum, which frankly is not demanding enough on him.

HEMMER: And so your point then is Saddam Hussein wants to buy time?

O'HANLON: He wants to buy time. He wants to see if our threat of war is real. He heard the president say yesterday that he's not ready yet to make any decision on war. Saddam's not going to give in too much until he sees American troops almost ready to load up onto troop ships and head over to the Persian Gulf.

HEMMER: A couple things on that, Michael. First of all, these reports from the front page of major U.S. papers for weeks running now. The "L.A. Times" has a report today about Saddam's strategy in the event of a conflict there. The "New York Times" reporting, the "Washington Post." I'm wondering, is Saddam Hussein getting the message that, indeed, the U.S. administration is totally and completely serious about hitting his country again?

O'HANLON: Well, I don't think that we know the Bush administration's yet serious. One of the things that these "New York Times" stories have revealed, as you know, is that the war plan would be very demanding. It would be a Desert Storm like war, a 250,000 strong invasion of Iraq. And now, as you say, the "Los Angeles Times" is confirming that Iraq would probably fight in the cities. And that's a tougher kind of warfare for us.

We would still win. We'd win decisively. But it's a tough kind of war. I'm not sure President Bush has fully signed up to that kind of war. I think six months ago he hoped that he could apply the Afghanistan model of warfare -- air power and use of the resistance forces in that country, wherever he was fighting. And I'm not sure he believes that anymore. I'm not sure he's really ready for Desert Storm II.

HEMMER: I don't want to put words in your mouth, but I think what you're saying, though, is strong words publicly but maybe a soft sword to follow it up. True or not?

O'HANLON: At this moment I have no doubt that President Bush may ultimately steal his resolve and may come around to a decision to use force. I think he's capable of that kind of a decision and he may very well wind up taking us to war. But let's get serious. This is going to be a big war. This would be the most momentous use of American military power since the Vietnam War.

HEMMER: Listen, I'm out of time here. But in 15 seconds maybe you can answer this question. Why is it that so many people in this country think Saddam Hussein and the words he makes are, for lack of a better phrase, a complete joke, whereas other parts of the world truly take this man seriously?

O'HANLON: Well, I'm not sure if they take him seriously or if they believe the U.N. inspection system can work. We have to show that we need tougher inspections. Otherwise the world's going to say listen, the U.N. approach is the one we should go with because the U.N. reflects international law, international consensus. We need to make the U.N. approach tougher and then we'll have most of the world behind us if we actually go to war.

HEMMER: All right, Michael, let's talk again, OK?

O'HANLON: Thanks, Bill.

HEMMER: Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institute there in D.C.

O'HANLON: Thank you.

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