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American Morning

Should Saddam Hussein's Words be Taken Seriously?

Aired August 08, 2002 - 09:06   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Iraqi President Saddam Hussein had sharp words for the United States today, saying that any attack against Iraq would fail and bring disgrace to the aggressors. Hussein painted a grim fate for anyone who dared such an assault.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SADDAM HUSSEIN, IRAQI PRESIDENT (through translator): The forces of evil will carry their coffins on their backs to die in disgraceful failure, taking their skins back with them, or to dig their own graves after they bring death to themselves.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ZAHN: Should Hussein's words be taken seriously, or is it simply nervous posturing?

Joining us to gauge the speech is Robin Wright, of "The Los Angeles Times." She joins us from Washington. Welcome back.

Good to see you, Robin.

ROBIN WRIGHT, "THE LOS ANGELES TIMES": Nice to see you.

ZAHN: Really reaction from the White House as Kelly Wallace reported last hour, that they heard nothing new in this speech, entirely predictable. What was your reaction to Saddam Hussein's speech?

WRIGHT: I think Saddam Hussein is posturing. I think he's reflecting for the first time a bit of nervousness in the last week. He's reached out to the United Nations after stalling for four years on the U.N. weapon's inspectors, offering the leader of the team to come back to Baghdad and hold talks. He offered the U.S. Congress to come and visit for three weeks, to inspect anything they wanted.

And now I think he's kind of trying rally the forces, not only in Iraq, but also in the Arab world. I think one of the most important things to remember is that the Iraqi army really is the key to his ability to survive and the United States' ability to eventually defeat him. In the last Gulf War in 1991, the Iraqi troops defected in masses, others didn't fight very well. And I think he wants to ensure by rallying the forces that he makes it clear that -- reaches out to that nationalism of Iraqis, to try to keep them on his side. ZAHN: But does it really work from that standpoint, because there's so much discussion how seriously degraded the Iraqi troops are post-Desert Storm?

WRIGHT: Well, it's still the most numerous and the best equipped army in the Persian Gulf. Yes, it's about half the size -- maybe a third the effectiveness of Iraqi army back in 1991. But it still could be a significant force, you know, depending on how the war -- fights out, particularly if Saddam Hussein deploys them in the cities. The cities are much more difficult place for any outside force -- it's a much more difficult arena for any outside force, versus the desert, which is really where the Americans fought them a decade ago.

ZAHN: If you sit in the White House today as part of administration, are you encouraged by this speech, you know you got the guys number, particularly since you say he's betraying nervousness here?

WRIGHT: I think it doesn't come as a surprise to anyone. I think we'll see a lot of this in the run-up to any kind of confrontation between the United States and Iraq, both sides posturing. He knows that the war drums are rumbling. Since the spring, there's more and more talk by senior administration officials, and he's getting out there and doing the very same thing.

ZAHN: Let's talk about where the Saudis are on all of this. Is it your understanding that they will not allow their bases to be used for any attacks on Iraq, but they will continue to allow the U.S. to use a base to monitor Iraq?

WRIGHT: Well, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are the two most critical countries, because they are on the two widest fronts. They have the bases that the United States needs to deploy it's forces, and more importantly, its warplanes. The Saudia Arabians have made it clear they will allow the United States to keep the warplanes used from its bases to patrol the no-fly zones over the north and the south.

But it's very interesting that Saudi Arabia at this juncture should say, absolutely no use of -- or Saudi bases for U.S. forces on the ground infantry, and that of course is going to make it a little bit more difficult, because that would force the United States to look for other countries in the Middle East, or even turn as it did in Afghanistan to the use of ships to deploy its troops.

ZAHN: Final question for you. It's now become clear that the administration, I guess, is going to allow some sort of congressional involvement in this run up to potential war. What kind of difference will that input make in this equation?

WRIGHT: It's very, I think, important for the administration to make its case, and part of that will include a public debate. Winning Congressional spot will be critical to that. The fact that the Senate Foreign Relations Committee has begun discussions and will continue them into September is likely to play an important role.

So far, there's a lot of questions. I don't think anyone so far has challenged the premise, and that is that Saddam Hussein is a dangerous man, and that the Iraqi people would be better off without him.

ZAHN: Based on what you know, is there any doubt in your mind that ultimately, the U.S. will be attacking Iraq?

WRIGHT: I think there's an awful lot of issues, the United States is going to find along the way, whether it's being diverted by Afghanistan and some of the challenges there, the fact the Middle east is -- faces a terrible problem right now in sorting out the problems between the Israeli and the Palestinians. I think that the cost of the war, the $65 billion the last time around, absorbed by Saudi Arabia, Japan, Germany and others, that this time we will have to absorb it, a time that the American economy is bit shaky. There's a lot of other issues out there.

So I'm not one who believes we will see a war this year. I think there's a lot of things to sort out before we can undertake some sort of challenge to Saddam Hussein.

ZAHN: Thanks for trying to give a perspective here on AMERICAN MORNING. As always, Robin Wright, glad to have you on the air with us.

WRIGHT: Thank you.

ZAHN: Appreciate it.

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