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American Morning

Average Age for Those with West Nile Symptoms is 54

Aired August 20, 2002 - 09:36   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: A 75-year-old woman in St. Louis has died from the virus, the first death from the illness ever recorded in Missouri. Now, about a dozen people have died so far this year in the country from the virus, which is spreading rapidly across the country.
And CNN Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta joins us now from CNN Center in Atlanta with more. How nervous are you about this one from a doctor's point of view?

DR. SANJAY GUPTA, CNN MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, you know, the numbers are still very small, no question about it. A dozen deaths doesn't compare to the hundreds of thousands of people that die from the flu over the years, but certainly, it is of concern because the numbers are growing. Just over this past weekend, the number of infections in the United States rose from 160 to 251. Paula, as you pointed out as well, we are going to put up a map -- now, a death that is going to be confirmed, probably, in Missouri. That is in addition to 11 deaths around the country. If you look at the map, up and down, before -- 1999 doesn't seem like that long ago now, when West Nile virus first entered the United States. You will see it entered in the northeastern seaboard in New York, and then slowly made its way down the seaboard, and eventually is making its way across the country. You can see in blue there, animal infections, but in green, the human infections. Experts say they wouldn't be surprised if that map extends all the way -- in human infections, that is, all the way to the West coast over the next couple of seasons.

Now, I will point out a couple of things. First of all, the last week of August and the first week of September are the worst mosquito seasons, the worst time to actually contract the West Nile virus. Those two weeks are coming, and then they will be gone. Experts expect the numbers to slowly start to trickle down after that, but no doubt just over this past weekend, the numbers have increased by almost a 1/3.

ZAHN: Yes, I guess that is what a lot of us do not understand, why the increase over previous years?

GUPTA: Well, I think that the -- the mosquitoes, the two types of mosquitoes really here in the United States are here probably to stay now. West Nile virus is a virus that will be associated with the United States now from here on out, and it is something that, you know, we haven't really dealt with that well before. The first couple of years that it was here, the numbers were still small because there just wasn't that much virus. The viral load is certainly increasing in the United States, and for that reason, and along with the migratory patterns of birds actually moving from the East to the West, taking the virus with it, is a likely cause for the increase.

ZAHN: So what are you supposed to do if you get bitten by a mosquito, what are you supposed to look for?

GUPTA: Well, here is a couple of important numbers to keep in mind. Still, the CDC, the Centers for Disease Control, still says you only have about a 20 percent chance of actually developing any symptoms whatsoever if you are bit by a mosquito, and most times, it is just going to be mild symptoms. Fever, rash, headache, things like that, the things associated with the flu. One in 150 people roughly, and those numbers may be changing as well, will develop anything more serious than that, and those serious symptoms, as we've talked so many times in the past, are symptoms of brain infection, encephalitis it is called, and that can be a very serious problem. Three to 15 percent of those people will die, and that certainly makes up the majority of the dozen or so people that have died so far. One other thing I will point out as well, Paula, and like I said, the numbers are changing as the disease is becoming more and more known about it. We always say that older people are the people most likely to develop symptoms. Right now, the average age of the people that are developing symptoms is about 54, and that is certainly not very old. People were thinking 70s or 80s, so the numbers are lower than we thought.

ZAHN: Well, I know the numbers are supposed to put that all into perspective, nevertheless, particularly parents out there are very concerned about their children who are spending a lot of time outdoors, particularly at sunset, getting bitten.

Thanks for helping us understand what the real risk is there. Appreciate it, doctor.

GUPTA: See you.

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