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American Morning

Interview with Magnus Ranstorp

Aired August 23, 2002 - 07:15   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: The al Qaeda tapes we have been seeing this week show a remarkably media-savvy terrorist organization, one that's using the latest technology to get the message out. But then again, what do the tapes reveal about bin Laden, himself, and what he might be planning next?
Dr. Magnus Ranstorp, a terrorism analyst at Scotland's St. Andrews University. He has looked at all of the tapes and comes to us now from London.

We just saw you in that story from Nic Robertson. Good to have you with us today -- good afternoon to you in London. You said...

DR. MAGNUS RANSTORP, ST. ANDREWS UNIVERSITY: My pleasure.

HEMMER: Doctor, you said something to our CNN producers that really caught my eye. You said that we need to recognize we will never win this war. Were those your words exactly? And if so, what do you mean by that?

RANSTORP: In other words, there will not be any finality to this war. This is a war that's going to go on for a long time. The Pentagon has even admitted that we can expect a realistic (UNINTELLIGIBLE) into al Qaeda by the year 2008. I suspect we will have to fight this another 10, 15 years before we make a real inroad into the organization.

HEMMER: You're saying beyond 2008, it's another 10, 15 years?

RANSTORP: Another 10, 15 years. You know, we don't have a membership list of al Qaeda. I mean, the number of people that went out to Afghanistan over at least 20 years, and the new recruits have been recruited in Europe, in the United States and elsewhere, and it's a mammoth task in terms of intelligence to be able to find where are these various networks.

And the networks are changing. They are mutating, and they're lying low right now, and they have great patience.

HEMMER: Is it more than intelligence, though, Doctor? How do you win this war?

RANSTORP: Well, you win this war by maintaining the fact that this is a very sophisticated organization. You have to be able to educate the public and the policymakers that this war requires more collateral cooperation all across the globe. I mean, al Qaeda has a global reach in every single continent. They have a presence in over 60 countries, and they are very active. And of course, the United States cannot shoulder this alone. It requires the cooperation and assistance by many, many countries.

HEMMER: Indeed it is. Listen, I want to get to a piece of videotape from 1998. You take a special note of this videotape, because Osama bin Laden is wearing a wristwatch with a compass on it. Tell us why the significance?

RANSTORP: Well, you know, in May, 1998, you know, he really came out and launched this front -- the Islamic front or jihad against the crusaders. And what is significant about it is that he had very tight security at the time. But the fact that he has a watch with a compass on it shows how serious he takes security, but also the fact that he travels a lot. And the kind of security he has on that video is not the same he has today. He travels with a smaller number of people, and is probably in Afghanistan or Pakistan right now...

(CROSSTALK)

HEMMER: But possibly, though, it also gives him direction toward Mecca to pray, though, on a daily basis, don't you think?

RANSTORP: Well, of course -- of course. I mean, it serves dual purposes, just like these videotapes in some sense.

HEMMER: Why do you think al Qaeda loves videotape?

RANSTORP: Well, you know, I think they recognize the power of the media. I mean, it's not something that al Qaeda has recognized. When Ayatollah Khomeini launched his Islamic revolution in Iran, he used cassette tapes in order to disseminate his message, to radicalize his constituency.

And al Qaeda uses videotapes for multiple purposes. Some of them are instructional, how-to tapes, how to make explosives. Some of them are principally just for recruitment, and they are taking great care in editing some of these tapes and showing the prowess of their military and terrorist campaigns in Chechnya, Bosnia and all around the world.

HEMMER: Yes, tough on that just a bit more, around that world, that global reach. How effective has al Qaeda been in hooking up and in linking with other organizations around the world, sir?

RANSTORP: Well, al Qaeda is, of course, a very secretive organization, and of course, has been, according to what the needs are, there has been some logistical cooperation; for example, with Hezbollah elements in Lebanon. There was public evidence given that they had received explosive instructions from Lebanon. But it does so in an operational need.

And of course, al Qaeda is composed of many constituent groups from all across north Africa and even down to the southeast Asia.

HEMMER: Yes, Doctor, I'm curious to know from these videotapes, and you've studied them and you've examined them and you know a whole lot about the group. Is there something in that that you've been able to pinpoint that may give us clues as to how they will operate in the future?

RANSTORP: Well, they are the masters of this trade craft of breaking down complex processes. I think what the videotapes show today is that they are focusing in on low-scale, medium attacks. For example, the tapes have not revealed this, but al Qaeda was very successful in using a gas tanker against the Jewish synagogue in Tanzania on the island of Djerba. I'm sure that they recognize that that is a tactic that they will use in the future.

And of course, suicide terrorism is a strategic threat. So you have a formidable organization that is very patient and that will gauge the security environment, that will use assassinations, low- scale operations, like the kind we saw on the videos.

HEMMER: I've got to think also there are more videotapes out there, and perhaps it's just a question of time before they are discovered, and we can watch and glean from them in the future.

Thank you, Doctor, appreciate your time -- Dr. Magnus Ranstorp in London.

RANSTORP: Pleasure.

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