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American Morning

Interview with David Gergen

Aired August 28, 2002 - 07:17   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: There is little word from the White House officially about the Texas meeting of President Bush and the Saudi ambassador, but one thing is clear: Saudi Arabia remains dead- set against any U.S. attack on Iraq.
Joining us from Boston this morning, David Gergen. He served in several administrations, is now professor of public service at the John F. Kennedy School of Government and Harvard University.

Good morning -- thanks for joining us this morning.

DAVID GERGEN, J.F. KENNEDY SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT: Good morning.

KAGAN: You know how these things work. Are you surprised that very little word is coming out of what happened yesterday in Crawford?

GERGEN: I'm not surprised. The meeting, it sounds from all reports, as to have been very useful for the United States.

I think any time you sit down with Prince Bandar when there is trouble in the Middle East, you make some progress, because he's a good friend to the Bush administration, and he's a very good personal family friend. He was instrumental in helping to organize things and to help the United States back in 1991 in the Persian Gulf War. So I think it was a positive meeting in that sense.

But clearly, the Saudis have made it clear that they have not budged in their view. They are opposed to a war.

What has not been stated is what the Saudi position would be on oil in the event of a war, and that's equally important to the United States, because we've had a spike up in oil prices recently. And from an American perspective, if these oil prices stay as high as they have been recently, it could put us into a -- it could increase the possibility of a recession or a double-dip.

KAGAN: Well, let's look at oil from the other perspective. There are some out there who suggest that the real reason the Saudis don't want the U.S. to go into Iraq is because they could really get in there and bring the price of oil down very low, and that would hurt the Saudis.

GERGEN: Well, there is that issue. And from the Saudi perspective, there have been hints coming out, especially from the Defense Department, that, indeed, our purpose in going into Iraq is not simply to get rid of Saddam Hussein, but to change the whole geopolitical outlook in the Middle East, so that we would have a friendly regime in Iraq, a moderate regime. We could have control of the oil, in effect, and to marginalize the Saudis and to marginalize the Egyptians.

Now, that perspective, which has been drawn from things that have been -- analysts over at the Defense Department and consultants to the Defense Department have set a lot of Europeans and Arabs on their ears. And there has been a lot of chatter about it in the European press, much less so than here.

I think the president's effort yesterday -- President Bush's effort yesterday was to, in effect, say, no, that is not our view. We want Saudi Arabia to remain a friend. We are not seeking to marginalize Saudi Arabia. And I think that was a very useful message to deliver by President Bush yesterday.

KAGAN: David, I want to talk about messages and international messages. You wrote a very interesting piece in a "U.S. News & World Report" back on August 19, talking about the U.S. getting the message out to the international community. It's not just a sales job here. It is a sales job around the world.

And you quoted some interesting numbers of the U.S. spending only $1 billion in getting the message out around the world, and you compared that to U.S. companies that spent $222 billion getting their message out just to advertise their products.

GERGEN: That's right. That came from a group that was pulled together at the Council on Foreign Relations, and issued an excellent report, saying that, listen, public diplomacy ought to be an integral part of America's overall diplomatic effort in that part of the world. And it's simply not happening.

And I think that we see how steep a hill we have to climb in just what's happened in the last 24 hours. After the vice president made that bristling speech, emphatically emphasizing the need to go after Iraq, a number of governments have stood up and said, no.

The Egyptians have said no. Mubarak has said no. Schroder in Germany was very, very tough about the Cheney speech. France and Belgium have both made it clear they think we ought to be going through the U.N. if we want to do this, which the vice president said we didn't think we need to go through the U.N. China has said we ought to go through the U.N.

The one country that has stood by us, and they have been a staunch, staunch friend to the Bush administration, interestingly enough, because it's the Labor government, was the British government. Jack Straw, the foreign minister of Britain, has said that the Cheney approach was quite prudent.

So we did find support there, but I think when you look at the range of countries now that spoke up within 24 hours of the vice president's speech, it says -- it sends a very clear signal to the Bush administration, look, gentlemen, this fellow is a menace, but you've got to line up more support...

KAGAN: You need more support. But in the final 10 seconds...

GERGEN: ... both in Congress and here.

KAGAN: The final 10 seconds we have left, you have advised four presidents. If you were invited down to the ranch, what would be your quick, if it could be quick, advice to President Bush?

GERGEN: Well, after -- I'd say, remember your dad, remember how he did this. It was a superb act of diplomacy on his part. You do need to -- we do need, ultimately, regime change, but the way you go about it is the way -- it should be very similar to what your dad did, and that was line up the country, line up the Congress and line up the world, and then send the military.

But get the world, the U.N. and the Congress committed first. First, commit the nation and the world, then commit the troops.

KAGAN: A good game plan.

David Gergen, joining us from Boston this morning -- thank you, sir.

GERGEN: Thank you.

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