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American Morning
Interview with Michael O'Hanlon
Aired September 12, 2002 - 07:05 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Back here at home, in just a few hours, the president will present his case against Iraq to the 57th U.N. General Assembly. The president will argue that Saddam Hussein's outlaw regime has defied U.N. resolutions for years and must be dealt with. But how will that message be received?\
From Washington, we are joined by Michael O'Hanlon with The Brookings Institution.
Welcome back, Michael. Good to see you.
MICHAEL O'HANLON, THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: Thanks, Paula -- you, too.
ZAHN: Thank you.
So, the president is expected to make a very powerful case that Iraq has violated some 16 U.N. resolutions, and someone characterized it this morning as setting up a strategy whereby the U.S. would look like the reluctant sheriff coming to town to step in as a last resort.
Does that strategy make sense to you?
O'HANLON: Well, the president is starting to get the strategy together. I'm not sure he has the whole thing yet. He is apparently going to say to the world, you figure something out. If you don't want us to go to war, find some way to pressure Saddam to let the weapons inspectors back in -- sort of putting the onus on the rest of the U.N. to figure out an ultimatum strategy.
I don't think that's the right way to go, if you want the ultimatum strategy to work. If you're looking to get "no" for an answer from Saddam, that may be the right strategy, but if you really want...
ZAHN: Well, what's wrong with the strategy, Michael? Why wouldn't that work?
O'HANLON: Well...
ZAHN: I mean, why shouldn't it be up to the U.N. to make sure that Security resolutions are imposed and enforced?
O'HANLON: Because, as you know, Paula, the U.N. is the sum total of its members, and to make this threat work against Saddam and get inspectors back and get disarmament resumed, we need American military force as the threat. That's the leverage we have. Obviously, most of what Rula was reporting from Baghdad, all of the official views of Iraq, that's nonsense. Iraq is not free of weapons. Iraq only gives in when it feels a threat. Saddam is not going to give up these weapons unless he feels the alternative is to lose his regime, lose his hold on power.
So, we need to couple any ultimatum with a real threat that force will follow if the ultimatum is not accepted. However, the United States is the country that has that force. We're the only ones who can actually create enough leverage for Saddam to give in. So, we have to be part of creating any ultimatum.
And right now, the president is essentially saying to the rest of the world, you figure it out. That just isn't going to work. That's a strategy that is bound to fail. Maybe the president wants it to fail, maybe he wants war, but that's where he's heading.
ZAHN: So, what you're essentially saying, then, is that Secretary-General Kofi Annan is spinning his wheels today when he goes before the U.N. and he says, look, Iraq, you violated these resolutions, and it's time to follow through and enforce them?
O'HANLON: Well, I'm glad he'll say that, because clearly, Iraq is the problem here, and even if I criticize the president's tactics, I certainly think the president has the right basic motivation. And Iraq has had a decade to disarm, and it has not chosen to do so. So, Secretary-General Annan is going to make that point very clearly, and I think that's critical.
But if we want to have any alternative to war here, and view war as just a last resort as opposed to a first resort, we need to help create that ultimatum, we need to help present it to Saddam and not simply turn that responsibility over to other countries.
ZAHN: But don't you think that's already understood by the Iraqis?
O'HANLON: No. I think the Iraqis still hope that with Chancellor Schroeder in Germany campaigning very hard against war, with many Arab states publicly opposing war, with most European countries in general skeptical of this U.S. approach, with even Tony Blair criticized at home for wanting to side with us, he really thinks he has a chance to divide the international coalition and avoid war, simply by being difficult and being stubborn.
If we're going to make this work, we have to form a coalition that can unite behind an ultimatum, and right now, we haven't done that. I think the president will move in that direction today, but I don't think he's going to go far enough.
ZAHN: The president is not expected to set any timetable, but it is clear, when you talk to his advisors, that he's not going to give Iraq a whole lot of time to comply. I guess the French president, Jacques Chirac, is basically saying, you know, three weeks to get inspectors in there. What do you think will happen? O'HANLON: I think that was a very positive statement by President Chirac, and it does suggest we could form an international coalition here with certain principles. A very quick ultimatum, demand for immediate destruction of a lot of Iraq's weapons that we know it still has, and we're not going to play games with Iraq. We're not going to say, you know, give us five years to find the weapons. We're going to demand that Iraq show these weapons and allow them to be destroyed. That should be a very critical part of the ultimatum as well.
I think there is the basis here for a lot of countries, including France, Britain, other -- even Russia and China, to unite behind an ultimatum strategy if we do the work to spell out what that strategy should entail. And that's where the president has gone sort of two- thirds of the way of where he needs to go.
The basic approach here of a near-term ultimatum is correct, but to put it all together, you have to play the lead role as the United States. You don't turn that job over to somebody else.
ZAHN: I just need a yes or no here. Do you see the U.S. at war three or four months down the road?
O'HANLON: 50/50, because if Saddam knows that war is inevitable, he may accept those inspectors back in.
ZAHN: Michael O'Hanlon with The Brookings Institution, thanks so much for your time this morning -- appreciate it.
O'HANLON: Thank you, Paula.
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