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American Morning

Interview With Brian Jenkins

Aired September 12, 2002 - 07:16   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: The 9/11 mark may have passed without incident yesterday, but the nation is still remaining on high alert today, code orange, indicating a high risk for the potential for a terrorist attack. Security extremely tight yesterday, as you can imagine, at ceremonies honoring 9/11 victims taking place at ground zero, at the Pentagon, also in Shanksville, Pennsylvania.
A question now: How real is the current threat? Is the homeland security system working?

Those questions now with terrorism expert, Brian Jenkins, of the Rand Corporation, who is up early for us in San Francisco.

Good morning to you.

BRIAN JENKINS, TERRORISM EXPERT: Good morning.

HEMMER: I don't know if anyone outside al Qaeda can answer this question, but give it a shot anyway. Right now, does al Qaeda have the organizational ability to launch another attack, in your estimation?

JENKINS: Oh, I think we have to concede that they have the capability to launch another attack. It may or may not be on the scale of 9/11. But certainly, while we have made considerable progress against the organization, a lot of their leadership is still intact. Many of their operatives are still in position around the world. They may be operating on a somewhat more decentralized basis, but they have the capacity for attack.

In addition to the al Qaeda structure, we also have to be concerned about the freelance jihadis, who may decide on their own without any instructions from al Qaeda's headquarters, to carry out attacks against the United States.

HEMMER: I mentioned that yesterday passed without incident. What does that say to you? Does that say we're getting better? Or does it say that al Qaeda does not necessarily operate on what some people consider anniversaries?

JENKINS: No, I think it's understandable that we breathe a sigh of relief having made it through the anniversary without major events, but I would not make any conclusion -- draw any conclusion from the absence of an event. They are not committed to any particular timetable. In fact, if we look at their past modus operandi, they spend a long time in planning, and they will strike when they have the opportunity to do so, not because of a specific date. HEMMER: What do you make of the alert we're under right now? Do you see it as a way of clarifying those threats? Or do you see it kind of like the way we were six months ago over the summertime, where many people became confused by the warnings that came out?

JENKINS: Well, consider here the basic challenge is: How do we effectively transmit intelligence information that the federal government may have to all of the agencies of the federal government involved in various aspects of security, to the 50 states of the United States, to the more than 18,000 police jurisdictions that we have in this country, as well as to those in the private sector who have security responsibilities for critical components of our infrastructure, for example? We need some shorthand way to communicate threat information without getting into details regarding sources or collection methods.

HEMMER: So, then, the whole system right now as is, do you keep it that way, or do you change it, Brian?

JENKINS: Oh, I think we'll be refining it over the months, and we're in for a long war here, so this is something we're going to have to live with. The British government, as a consequence of terrorism in the United Kingdom over a quarter of a century, has learned to deal with a similar kind of system.

What will happen is I think we'll probably get a little bit more sophisticated in the way we communicate the threat information, and at the same time, we, as citizens, are going to become increasingly sophisticated in our own appraisal of risk.

HEMMER: We kind of learn everyday a little bit more.

Thank you, Brian -- Brian Jenkins in San Francisco.

JENKINS: Thank you.

HEMMER: All right.

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