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American Morning

Interview With Graham Allison

Aired September 30, 2002 - 09:13   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: The U.S. and Britain are very busy pressing three other U.N. Security Council members -- China, Russia and France -- to accept a tough new resolution, which would set a short time limit for Iraq to comply, or else. For a behind-the-scenes look now at the diplomatic arm-twisting that is going on, Harvard University professor Graham Allison, a former Defense Department official in the Clinton administration, he joins us now from Boston.
Welcome. Good to see you, professor.

GRAHAM ALLISON, HARVARD UNIVERSITY: Good to see you.

ZAHN: First off, I wanted to you react to some of Christiane Amanpour's reporting out of the Vienna. She said that an Iraqi source has told CNN that Iraq expects the U.N. Security Council to adopt a new comprise resolution, and hopes that Iraq will be able to cooperate with it. Do you buy it?

ALLISON: I think that's probably what it will come out. I mean, I think the main point here is that we are seeing the most intense bargaining among big states that we have seen since the end of the Cold War. With war in the offing, and no certainty about the outcome, so there is going to be lots of twists and turns here, and I think both the U.S. and Iraq will end up making some compromises accommodations, as we get towards endgame.

ZAHN: What do you think is least amount that U.S. should accept? The big criticism right now is that you go back to old resolutions, and those are the ones that stick, these inspectors would in fact not have unfettered access. They would be denied access to eight different presidential sites for example.

ALLISON: Well, there are two or three issues there, just as the report suggested. I think the first and most important is the timetable. From the newspapers, you can see that the U.S. is on a timetable to war in January and February, with bombing that might start as early as December, in the absence of Saddam coming clean, which there is no expectations that he will do. So the question of timetable is the most important.

Secondly, in terms of the inspection regime, and mandate that comes out of the Security Council, the old mandate would put Hans Blix on a timetable that rolls off into way next spring. That's unacceptable to the administration. So they will be pushing for a timetable that will get Saddam to a crossroads at much earlier point. At which point, either he will come clean, which nobody expects is likely, or alternatively, he'll be judged to have stiffed the inspectors, and then the U.S. can rely on what's what will be called euphemistically in the resolution, I suspect, necessary means, which will mean war.

ZAHN: Let's come back to what you think is going on behind the scenes, as the U.S. is trying to get Russia and China, to support -- and France, to support this new resolution. Here is what Tony Blair has to say about that international support. He thinks it is just a matter of time before they all come around.

Let's listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TONY BLAIR, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: I think that whatever differences there may be about strategy and tactics in this, between the various major countries and international community, there is no disagreement about these two essentials: one, Saddam poses a real threat, and two, he has to be disarmed. The only question is, what's the best route of doing it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ZAHN: Of course that's what's become thrashed at the U.N. right now. Professor, where do we go with France, China and Russia?

ALLISON: Well I think Prime Minister Blair put the best face on it. But I think that if you the way you are pursuing it behind the scenes, obviously, it's quite complicated. Mr. Chirac, the president of France, has gone on record, wanting two resolutions, those two resolutions, first, one for inspections, and then secondly, if Saddam fails inspection test, then, another resolution from the Security Council on what action should be taken, is not exactly what Mr. Blair said. And in fact would push into a timetable that may be unacceptable for the U.S.

For Russia, which enjoys being a player in this game as well, there are material interests at stake here. They are interested in $8 billion dollars of debt that Iraq owes to the former Soviet Union, which I presume in the end the U.S. will give them a guarantee that the next government will pay, and they are interested in the contracts that some of their oil companies have reached with Iraq being honored by some new system.

They may also, clearly, are interested in some assistance, at least acquiescence, or maybe even some active U.S. assistance in their attempt to struggling with the guerrillas and freedom fighters and terrorists, caught in the complex of Chechnya and the Pankisky Gorge, where they have more than hands full. So this is a very complicated game, where you can't by the statements made by the officials, understand exactly what they are pursuing, and this is all, as I say, against this quite exacting timetable that the U.S. is insisting on.

ZAHN: Thank you for helping us better understand how to interpret all of this this morning, Graham Allison, glad to have you with us this morning on AMERICAN MORNING..

ALLISON: Thank you

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired September 30, 2002 - 09:13   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: The U.S. and Britain are very busy pressing three other U.N. Security Council members -- China, Russia and France -- to accept a tough new resolution, which would set a short time limit for Iraq to comply, or else. For a behind-the-scenes look now at the diplomatic arm-twisting that is going on, Harvard University professor Graham Allison, a former Defense Department official in the Clinton administration, he joins us now from Boston.
Welcome. Good to see you, professor.

GRAHAM ALLISON, HARVARD UNIVERSITY: Good to see you.

ZAHN: First off, I wanted to you react to some of Christiane Amanpour's reporting out of the Vienna. She said that an Iraqi source has told CNN that Iraq expects the U.N. Security Council to adopt a new comprise resolution, and hopes that Iraq will be able to cooperate with it. Do you buy it?

ALLISON: I think that's probably what it will come out. I mean, I think the main point here is that we are seeing the most intense bargaining among big states that we have seen since the end of the Cold War. With war in the offing, and no certainty about the outcome, so there is going to be lots of twists and turns here, and I think both the U.S. and Iraq will end up making some compromises accommodations, as we get towards endgame.

ZAHN: What do you think is least amount that U.S. should accept? The big criticism right now is that you go back to old resolutions, and those are the ones that stick, these inspectors would in fact not have unfettered access. They would be denied access to eight different presidential sites for example.

ALLISON: Well, there are two or three issues there, just as the report suggested. I think the first and most important is the timetable. From the newspapers, you can see that the U.S. is on a timetable to war in January and February, with bombing that might start as early as December, in the absence of Saddam coming clean, which there is no expectations that he will do. So the question of timetable is the most important.

Secondly, in terms of the inspection regime, and mandate that comes out of the Security Council, the old mandate would put Hans Blix on a timetable that rolls off into way next spring. That's unacceptable to the administration. So they will be pushing for a timetable that will get Saddam to a crossroads at much earlier point. At which point, either he will come clean, which nobody expects is likely, or alternatively, he'll be judged to have stiffed the inspectors, and then the U.S. can rely on what's what will be called euphemistically in the resolution, I suspect, necessary means, which will mean war.

ZAHN: Let's come back to what you think is going on behind the scenes, as the U.S. is trying to get Russia and China, to support -- and France, to support this new resolution. Here is what Tony Blair has to say about that international support. He thinks it is just a matter of time before they all come around.

Let's listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TONY BLAIR, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: I think that whatever differences there may be about strategy and tactics in this, between the various major countries and international community, there is no disagreement about these two essentials: one, Saddam poses a real threat, and two, he has to be disarmed. The only question is, what's the best route of doing it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ZAHN: Of course that's what's become thrashed at the U.N. right now. Professor, where do we go with France, China and Russia?

ALLISON: Well I think Prime Minister Blair put the best face on it. But I think that if you the way you are pursuing it behind the scenes, obviously, it's quite complicated. Mr. Chirac, the president of France, has gone on record, wanting two resolutions, those two resolutions, first, one for inspections, and then secondly, if Saddam fails inspection test, then, another resolution from the Security Council on what action should be taken, is not exactly what Mr. Blair said. And in fact would push into a timetable that may be unacceptable for the U.S.

For Russia, which enjoys being a player in this game as well, there are material interests at stake here. They are interested in $8 billion dollars of debt that Iraq owes to the former Soviet Union, which I presume in the end the U.S. will give them a guarantee that the next government will pay, and they are interested in the contracts that some of their oil companies have reached with Iraq being honored by some new system.

They may also, clearly, are interested in some assistance, at least acquiescence, or maybe even some active U.S. assistance in their attempt to struggling with the guerrillas and freedom fighters and terrorists, caught in the complex of Chechnya and the Pankisky Gorge, where they have more than hands full. So this is a very complicated game, where you can't by the statements made by the officials, understand exactly what they are pursuing, and this is all, as I say, against this quite exacting timetable that the U.S. is insisting on.

ZAHN: Thank you for helping us better understand how to interpret all of this this morning, Graham Allison, glad to have you with us this morning on AMERICAN MORNING..

ALLISON: Thank you

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com