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American Morning
Balance of Power Up for Grabs
Aired October 28, 2002 - 09:16 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Next week Americans go to the polls to decide which party will control Congress at a time when both Houses are as evenly divided as they can be. And the sudden death of Minnesota's Paul Wellstone has made the picture even cloudier.
Here with a look at the Senate now, our senior analyst Jeff Greenfield -- good morning.
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SENIOR ANALYST: Good day.
ZAHN: Why don't we start off with the Democrats best chances for picking up some seats here. Where are those?
GREENFIELD: OK, they got a couple of hopes that are across the U.S. map. First, New Hampshire, Republicans dumped Senator Bob Smith, they saw him as too vulnerable, in favor of Congressman John Sununu, son of George Bush, the first chief of staff. They saw a more electable Sununu. He is facing Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen. And the polls, perhaps surprisingly, show that race is close to dead even.
In Arkansas, first-term Senator Tim Hutchinson is running behind Attorney General Mark Pryor, the son of a popular ex-Senator. Personal issues here, Hutchinson, a social conservative, badly hurt when he divorced his longtime wife and married a staff aide. This is probably the Democrats best chance for a pick up.
And in Colorado, first-term Senator Wayne Allard is even with Ted Strickland who he barely beat six years ago. Those are the three big chances. There are -- go ahead.
ZAHN: And go on to the Republicans then who are not incumbents that are running for reelection.
GREENFIELD: Right. There are -- there are four seats where Republicans have retired, none Democratic, by the way, and Democrats think they have a chance in a couple of them. In South Carolina, Strom Thurmond is leaving after 46 years. Congressman Lindsey Graham, you'll remember him from the impeachment hearings, he's leading Alex Sanders, a former college president. That one is not particularly close.
But in Texas where Phil Gramm is leaving, Attorney General John Cornyn is running against ex-Dallas mayor Ron Kirk. If he's elected, he'd be the first black from the South since reconstruction.
The North Carolina race, which we don't have, has closed. Liddy Dole versus Erskine Bowles, two Washington insiders running as Carolina natives.
ZAHN: And they've both spent a pile of money there, haven't they?
GREENFIELD: Everybody's spending a pile of money. I mean you should own a TV and radio station anywhere in America where there's a race, you could never have to work again.
ZAHN: Yes.
GREENFIELD: I mean that's national.
ZAHN: Yes.
GREENFIELD: Yes.
ZAHN: Particularly when the rest of the advertising folks...
GREENFIELD: Oh yes.
ZAHN: ... are hurting from this economic dip...
GREENFIELD: Quite true.
ZAHN: ... we're going through.
So where are the Republicans looking for gains?
GREENFIELD: OK, you've got Republican hopes that are concentrated in the Midwest. There are four incumbent Democrats are, or sadly were, facing strong challenges. Iowa, Senator Tom Harkin, he always runs scared, but he has apparently opened up a lead against Congressman Greg Ganske.
In South Dakota, one of the real hopes of Republicans, first-term Senator Tim Johnson being challenged by Representative John Thune. He's an at-large congressman. They only got one congressman, so he's also won statewide.
In Missouri, Senator Jean Carnahan, you'll remember she took office after her husband, Governor Mel Carnahan, died on a plane crash just before the 2000 election, being challenged very hard by ex- Congressman Jim Talent, probably the most vulnerable Democrat of all.
And Republicans also think they have a chance in Georgia where Senator Max Cleland has a -- has a narrow lead over Representative Saxby Chambliss. This one is going off on defense and national security issues, perhaps surprising since Cleland is a Vietnam combat veteran who is a triple amputee from there, but he's hurting from that issue.
And of course, Minnesota, we're just going to have to wait and see.
ZAHN: Anyone's guess.
GREENFIELD: Well, no.
ZAHN: Senator Lieberman pretty much said...
GREENFIELD: Yes.
ZAHN: ... it is his expectation Walter Mondale will take this opportunity. What are you hearing?
GREENFIELD: Yes. I mean it seems to be a done deal. The one thing about that race, I mean Mondale is an icon in Minnesota, but you know the last time Walter Mondale was elected to the Senate, elected, was 1972. And if the Republicans want to make this a race of the past against the future, I mean you'll remember Mondale was almost beaten for the presidential nomination by Gary Hart in 1984 who said he was an icon of the past. Still, though, with the -- with the sentiment there, it's very hard to see how Walter Mondale doesn't win this race, assuming he says yes.
ZAHN: Let's fast forward to election night where we will both be on duty. Do you anticipate not being able to call the House and Senate for many days? You know you hear these nightmare scenarios of lawyers in place for many days after this election.
GREENFIELD: I have very...
ZAHN: Do you see that coming?
GREENFIELD: Oh, yes. Missouri, thousands of provisional ballots in a very tight race, could be days or weeks. Louisiana, if Mary Landrieu, who's the incumbent senator, she's way ahead; but if she doesn't get 50 percent of the vote, there's a runoff and it's possible we won't know who controls the Senate until December 7 in that race.
And my strong hunch is there will be ballot problems all over America. The "New York Times" has a front page story. That's assuming that we have finally learned how to count the votes and project with a certain amount of humility, unlike, Paula, two years ago, when it was a very long evening indeed.
ZAHN: Well we have a lot of different checks and balances in place. Tell people just very quickly about the CNN system in place where you're going to be in addition to this VNS...
GREENFIELD: We have -- we have...
ZAHN: ... which supplies stuff to all the networks. We have our own specific polling places...
GREENFIELD: Yes...
ZAHN: ... that we're going to check...
GREENFIELD: Yes, we do.
ZAHN: ... in key races. GREENFIELD: Yes, we do. Ten key -- ten key states, we have actually taken the wild step of actually using real votes. In fact that system we have is called "Real Vote." That isn't to say we won't project off exit polls if it's a widely, but we really believe in races that we expect to be close that you might actually hear us say, we don't care what everybody else has done, we're waiting for real votes.
ZAHN: Yes, we will not be held hostage by numbers again this time around, will we?
GREENFIELD: From your lips to God's ear.
ZAHN: He actually wrote a book about all that and the title of the book was...
GREENFIELD: "Oh Waiter, One Order of Crow,"...
ZAHN: Yes.
GREENFIELD: ... because that's what a lot of us feasted on Election Night.
ZAHN: We certainly did. Thank -- Jeff.
GREENFIELD: OK.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired October 28, 2002 - 09:16 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Next week Americans go to the polls to decide which party will control Congress at a time when both Houses are as evenly divided as they can be. And the sudden death of Minnesota's Paul Wellstone has made the picture even cloudier.
Here with a look at the Senate now, our senior analyst Jeff Greenfield -- good morning.
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SENIOR ANALYST: Good day.
ZAHN: Why don't we start off with the Democrats best chances for picking up some seats here. Where are those?
GREENFIELD: OK, they got a couple of hopes that are across the U.S. map. First, New Hampshire, Republicans dumped Senator Bob Smith, they saw him as too vulnerable, in favor of Congressman John Sununu, son of George Bush, the first chief of staff. They saw a more electable Sununu. He is facing Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen. And the polls, perhaps surprisingly, show that race is close to dead even.
In Arkansas, first-term Senator Tim Hutchinson is running behind Attorney General Mark Pryor, the son of a popular ex-Senator. Personal issues here, Hutchinson, a social conservative, badly hurt when he divorced his longtime wife and married a staff aide. This is probably the Democrats best chance for a pick up.
And in Colorado, first-term Senator Wayne Allard is even with Ted Strickland who he barely beat six years ago. Those are the three big chances. There are -- go ahead.
ZAHN: And go on to the Republicans then who are not incumbents that are running for reelection.
GREENFIELD: Right. There are -- there are four seats where Republicans have retired, none Democratic, by the way, and Democrats think they have a chance in a couple of them. In South Carolina, Strom Thurmond is leaving after 46 years. Congressman Lindsey Graham, you'll remember him from the impeachment hearings, he's leading Alex Sanders, a former college president. That one is not particularly close.
But in Texas where Phil Gramm is leaving, Attorney General John Cornyn is running against ex-Dallas mayor Ron Kirk. If he's elected, he'd be the first black from the South since reconstruction.
The North Carolina race, which we don't have, has closed. Liddy Dole versus Erskine Bowles, two Washington insiders running as Carolina natives.
ZAHN: And they've both spent a pile of money there, haven't they?
GREENFIELD: Everybody's spending a pile of money. I mean you should own a TV and radio station anywhere in America where there's a race, you could never have to work again.
ZAHN: Yes.
GREENFIELD: I mean that's national.
ZAHN: Yes.
GREENFIELD: Yes.
ZAHN: Particularly when the rest of the advertising folks...
GREENFIELD: Oh yes.
ZAHN: ... are hurting from this economic dip...
GREENFIELD: Quite true.
ZAHN: ... we're going through.
So where are the Republicans looking for gains?
GREENFIELD: OK, you've got Republican hopes that are concentrated in the Midwest. There are four incumbent Democrats are, or sadly were, facing strong challenges. Iowa, Senator Tom Harkin, he always runs scared, but he has apparently opened up a lead against Congressman Greg Ganske.
In South Dakota, one of the real hopes of Republicans, first-term Senator Tim Johnson being challenged by Representative John Thune. He's an at-large congressman. They only got one congressman, so he's also won statewide.
In Missouri, Senator Jean Carnahan, you'll remember she took office after her husband, Governor Mel Carnahan, died on a plane crash just before the 2000 election, being challenged very hard by ex- Congressman Jim Talent, probably the most vulnerable Democrat of all.
And Republicans also think they have a chance in Georgia where Senator Max Cleland has a -- has a narrow lead over Representative Saxby Chambliss. This one is going off on defense and national security issues, perhaps surprising since Cleland is a Vietnam combat veteran who is a triple amputee from there, but he's hurting from that issue.
And of course, Minnesota, we're just going to have to wait and see.
ZAHN: Anyone's guess.
GREENFIELD: Well, no.
ZAHN: Senator Lieberman pretty much said...
GREENFIELD: Yes.
ZAHN: ... it is his expectation Walter Mondale will take this opportunity. What are you hearing?
GREENFIELD: Yes. I mean it seems to be a done deal. The one thing about that race, I mean Mondale is an icon in Minnesota, but you know the last time Walter Mondale was elected to the Senate, elected, was 1972. And if the Republicans want to make this a race of the past against the future, I mean you'll remember Mondale was almost beaten for the presidential nomination by Gary Hart in 1984 who said he was an icon of the past. Still, though, with the -- with the sentiment there, it's very hard to see how Walter Mondale doesn't win this race, assuming he says yes.
ZAHN: Let's fast forward to election night where we will both be on duty. Do you anticipate not being able to call the House and Senate for many days? You know you hear these nightmare scenarios of lawyers in place for many days after this election.
GREENFIELD: I have very...
ZAHN: Do you see that coming?
GREENFIELD: Oh, yes. Missouri, thousands of provisional ballots in a very tight race, could be days or weeks. Louisiana, if Mary Landrieu, who's the incumbent senator, she's way ahead; but if she doesn't get 50 percent of the vote, there's a runoff and it's possible we won't know who controls the Senate until December 7 in that race.
And my strong hunch is there will be ballot problems all over America. The "New York Times" has a front page story. That's assuming that we have finally learned how to count the votes and project with a certain amount of humility, unlike, Paula, two years ago, when it was a very long evening indeed.
ZAHN: Well we have a lot of different checks and balances in place. Tell people just very quickly about the CNN system in place where you're going to be in addition to this VNS...
GREENFIELD: We have -- we have...
ZAHN: ... which supplies stuff to all the networks. We have our own specific polling places...
GREENFIELD: Yes...
ZAHN: ... that we're going to check...
GREENFIELD: Yes, we do.
ZAHN: ... in key races. GREENFIELD: Yes, we do. Ten key -- ten key states, we have actually taken the wild step of actually using real votes. In fact that system we have is called "Real Vote." That isn't to say we won't project off exit polls if it's a widely, but we really believe in races that we expect to be close that you might actually hear us say, we don't care what everybody else has done, we're waiting for real votes.
ZAHN: Yes, we will not be held hostage by numbers again this time around, will we?
GREENFIELD: From your lips to God's ear.
ZAHN: He actually wrote a book about all that and the title of the book was...
GREENFIELD: "Oh Waiter, One Order of Crow,"...
ZAHN: Yes.
GREENFIELD: ... because that's what a lot of us feasted on Election Night.
ZAHN: We certainly did. Thank -- Jeff.
GREENFIELD: OK.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
