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American Morning
Preview of 2002 Midterm Elections
Aired October 30, 2002 - 08:14 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: With the midterm elections less than a week away, President Bush is going to be flying all over the country trying to help Republican candidates. He's already helped them by raising more money than any other president in history. But just how much does a president shape midterm elections?
Senior analyst Jeff Greenfield is here to cast a semi-skeptical eye on this idea -- but, Jeff, it's got to matter a little bit, doesn't it?
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, yes, surely there are clearly times when the president is at the center of a midterm election and, in fact, Bill Clinton was at the center of both of his with very different results. I mean go back to 1994, the president went into the midterm elections with about a 40 percent job approval rating, historically very low. That November Democrats lost 54 House seats, nine Senate seats. The Republicans swept the Congress.
But in 1998, even with the Lewinsky scandal swirling around him, Clinton took a 62 percent job approval rating into the elections. Democrats actually won five House seats, the first such gain for any White House party since 1934. Now, this year, according to CNN's latest numbers, President Bush is doing OK. He's got a 61 percent job approval rating. That's pretty good based on historical measures, but...
ZAHN: But what? There's a problem here?
GREENFIELD: Yes, there's a problem here because it is a steady drop from the start of the year. Bush was at 77 percent in January, 72 percent in May, 65 in August, 61 percent now. You can see that trend. And what's worse, I think, is that the country is in an increasingly sour mood. At the start of the year, about 66 percent of Americans thought things were going well in America. We don't have that number up. There they are. Now take a look at what happened. But today we're down to 49 percent.
And when we ask are economic conditions good or poor, poor by 53 to 47 percent. And just yesterday, as you heard, the consumer confidence numbers showed a big drop and if consumers have been keeping the economy going with spending, not good news, Paula.
ZAHN: So does that mean Republicans are in for a terrible night?
GREENFIELD: You know, you might think that. But I don't think that's what those numbers mean. Not this year. First, we don't have any sign yet that voters are blaming Bush for the economy. 9/11 still overhangs a lot of views about that. And second, there's no sign that voters think the Democrats can fix what's wrong. It's not like they put out a five point contract with America with a plan of action. So that means that if there is no driving theme this fall, all of these races we're talking about are coming down to highly local factors, including the fact that most House seats are safe for whoever is in power because, guess why, that's how politicians designed the system, to protect themselves.
So you've only got a few seats in play in the House and Senate, and what we're talking about, god help us, on election night, is it's going to come down to a handful of incredibly close races in places like New Hampshire and South Dakota, where a thousand votes or so, roughly the population of a New York subway car at rush hour, might well decide who controls the Senate. And the only caveat here, Paula, is that if I'm right that voters are only now beginning to realize there's an election in six days, the bad economic news could conceivably wind up shifting all of this away from Republicans.
ZAHN: Are there any turnout predictions?
GREENFIELD: I can -- yes. Low.
ZAHN: Low?
GREENFIELD: Maybe this year they'll be low.
ZAHN: And they always are low for midterm elections?
GREENFIELD: Well, there's been a constant decline both in presidential and midterm elections. People thought after 9/11 there'd be this renewal of civic interest. The primaries don't show any sign of that.
ZAHN: Let's talk about what Walter Mondale might be up against later this afternoon. We're told he's meeting with key Democratic leaders and he probably will be launching a campaign. Now, I saw a poll this morning, I thought it was fascinating, saying that if he runs against the other candidate...
GREENFIELD: Norm Coleman.
ZAHN: Norm Coleman, that he is ahead going into this eight points.
GREENFIELD: Well, different polls have had him ahead by anywhere from two to eight points. And, look, just remember something, Walter Mondale last ran for the Senate in Minnesota, he last ran in 1972. As has been pointed out, you'd have to have been 53 years old or older right now to ever have video for Mondale for senator of Minnesota. You've got a whole generation of new people that have come into the state. And Minnesota, home of Hubert Humphrey, home of Eugene McCarthy, home of Walter Mondale, is a lot less Democratic, a lot less liberal than it was a generation ago.
I mean Gore barely carried the state in 2000. So it's, a lot of these people don't know who Walter Mondale is and it's, and Norman Coleman is an attractive figure. He almost, he came in second for governor to Jesse Ventura. He was former mayor of St. Paul. He is a formidable guy. So I don't think this is a walk over.
ZAHN: Very quickly, though, why would Walter Mondale want this? I mean everybody looks at the trajectory of his career, former vice president, ambassador. Why would he want to do this besides the obvious reason of trying to save the Senate for the Democrats?
GREENFIELD: You know, I think when you have been in the arena and people leave and they say I've never been happier in my life, I can read, I have time with my family. Frank Lautenberg, 78 years old, coming back into the arena. I've got a hunch of you could find some guy who last served in the Senate in 1958 and he was compass (ph) and there was a chance, they miss it. It's in the blood, like a firefighter answering the fire bell. I mean they want to be involved, for ego, for civics, for incitement, for all of that.
ZAHN: Yes. Well, we'll be covering all of the goings on in Minneapolis later today, live here on CNN.
Thanks, Jeff.
GREENFIELD: OK.
ZAHN: See you a lot on election day and election night.
GREENFIELD: Could be.
ZAHN: I think we're going to be working probably a 20 hour shift to get it...
GREENFIELD: And the days and weeks beyond, perhaps.
ZAHN: Well, that's what you're thinking, right? Lots of attorneys down the road. Let's see.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired October 30, 2002 - 08:14 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: With the midterm elections less than a week away, President Bush is going to be flying all over the country trying to help Republican candidates. He's already helped them by raising more money than any other president in history. But just how much does a president shape midterm elections?
Senior analyst Jeff Greenfield is here to cast a semi-skeptical eye on this idea -- but, Jeff, it's got to matter a little bit, doesn't it?
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, yes, surely there are clearly times when the president is at the center of a midterm election and, in fact, Bill Clinton was at the center of both of his with very different results. I mean go back to 1994, the president went into the midterm elections with about a 40 percent job approval rating, historically very low. That November Democrats lost 54 House seats, nine Senate seats. The Republicans swept the Congress.
But in 1998, even with the Lewinsky scandal swirling around him, Clinton took a 62 percent job approval rating into the elections. Democrats actually won five House seats, the first such gain for any White House party since 1934. Now, this year, according to CNN's latest numbers, President Bush is doing OK. He's got a 61 percent job approval rating. That's pretty good based on historical measures, but...
ZAHN: But what? There's a problem here?
GREENFIELD: Yes, there's a problem here because it is a steady drop from the start of the year. Bush was at 77 percent in January, 72 percent in May, 65 in August, 61 percent now. You can see that trend. And what's worse, I think, is that the country is in an increasingly sour mood. At the start of the year, about 66 percent of Americans thought things were going well in America. We don't have that number up. There they are. Now take a look at what happened. But today we're down to 49 percent.
And when we ask are economic conditions good or poor, poor by 53 to 47 percent. And just yesterday, as you heard, the consumer confidence numbers showed a big drop and if consumers have been keeping the economy going with spending, not good news, Paula.
ZAHN: So does that mean Republicans are in for a terrible night?
GREENFIELD: You know, you might think that. But I don't think that's what those numbers mean. Not this year. First, we don't have any sign yet that voters are blaming Bush for the economy. 9/11 still overhangs a lot of views about that. And second, there's no sign that voters think the Democrats can fix what's wrong. It's not like they put out a five point contract with America with a plan of action. So that means that if there is no driving theme this fall, all of these races we're talking about are coming down to highly local factors, including the fact that most House seats are safe for whoever is in power because, guess why, that's how politicians designed the system, to protect themselves.
So you've only got a few seats in play in the House and Senate, and what we're talking about, god help us, on election night, is it's going to come down to a handful of incredibly close races in places like New Hampshire and South Dakota, where a thousand votes or so, roughly the population of a New York subway car at rush hour, might well decide who controls the Senate. And the only caveat here, Paula, is that if I'm right that voters are only now beginning to realize there's an election in six days, the bad economic news could conceivably wind up shifting all of this away from Republicans.
ZAHN: Are there any turnout predictions?
GREENFIELD: I can -- yes. Low.
ZAHN: Low?
GREENFIELD: Maybe this year they'll be low.
ZAHN: And they always are low for midterm elections?
GREENFIELD: Well, there's been a constant decline both in presidential and midterm elections. People thought after 9/11 there'd be this renewal of civic interest. The primaries don't show any sign of that.
ZAHN: Let's talk about what Walter Mondale might be up against later this afternoon. We're told he's meeting with key Democratic leaders and he probably will be launching a campaign. Now, I saw a poll this morning, I thought it was fascinating, saying that if he runs against the other candidate...
GREENFIELD: Norm Coleman.
ZAHN: Norm Coleman, that he is ahead going into this eight points.
GREENFIELD: Well, different polls have had him ahead by anywhere from two to eight points. And, look, just remember something, Walter Mondale last ran for the Senate in Minnesota, he last ran in 1972. As has been pointed out, you'd have to have been 53 years old or older right now to ever have video for Mondale for senator of Minnesota. You've got a whole generation of new people that have come into the state. And Minnesota, home of Hubert Humphrey, home of Eugene McCarthy, home of Walter Mondale, is a lot less Democratic, a lot less liberal than it was a generation ago.
I mean Gore barely carried the state in 2000. So it's, a lot of these people don't know who Walter Mondale is and it's, and Norman Coleman is an attractive figure. He almost, he came in second for governor to Jesse Ventura. He was former mayor of St. Paul. He is a formidable guy. So I don't think this is a walk over.
ZAHN: Very quickly, though, why would Walter Mondale want this? I mean everybody looks at the trajectory of his career, former vice president, ambassador. Why would he want to do this besides the obvious reason of trying to save the Senate for the Democrats?
GREENFIELD: You know, I think when you have been in the arena and people leave and they say I've never been happier in my life, I can read, I have time with my family. Frank Lautenberg, 78 years old, coming back into the arena. I've got a hunch of you could find some guy who last served in the Senate in 1958 and he was compass (ph) and there was a chance, they miss it. It's in the blood, like a firefighter answering the fire bell. I mean they want to be involved, for ego, for civics, for incitement, for all of that.
ZAHN: Yes. Well, we'll be covering all of the goings on in Minneapolis later today, live here on CNN.
Thanks, Jeff.
GREENFIELD: OK.
ZAHN: See you a lot on election day and election night.
GREENFIELD: Could be.
ZAHN: I think we're going to be working probably a 20 hour shift to get it...
GREENFIELD: And the days and weeks beyond, perhaps.
ZAHN: Well, that's what you're thinking, right? Lots of attorneys down the road. Let's see.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
