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American Morning

Five Days and Counting Until America Votes

Aired October 31, 2002 - 06:23   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: Five days and counting until America votes. The balance of power in the Senate is up for grabs on Tuesday and right now some key races are too close to call.
CNN political analyst Ron Brownstein is back with us this morning. He's live from Washington -- Ron, welcome back.

RON BROWNSTEIN, "LOS ANGELES TIMES," CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning.

COSTELLO: Let's talk about some of the close races, like the one in Colorado.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes, let's start with the math, Carol. The Democrats had a one seat advantage in the Senate. So that for each seat the Republicans lose, they make the hill a little higher. If they lose one of their own seats, they have to win two Democratic seats. If they lose two of their own seats, they have to win three Democratic seats. And you could see how that math very quickly gets daunting.

Colorado is one of three races where Republicans hold the seat now, but they're right on the edge. You have a first term incumbent, Wayne Allard, who really hasn't made much of an impression on the state during his six years and now finds himself in a very tough rematch against Tom Strickland, an attorney, later a U.S. attorney, that he ran again and beat, ran against and beat in 1996.

This time it's much too close to call, but with Allard polling very low in the 40s, that's not a good sign for an incumbent this close to an election. The one hope Republicans have, it's a very good Republican state. Maybe turnout can push them over the line.

COSTELLO: Let's turn our attention quickly to New Hampshire, because that has been a particularly nasty race.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes, it's been a terrific race, actually. John Sununu, the congressman, son of the former chief of staff for the first George Bush, beat an incumbent Republican senator in the primary. He's facing the outgoing Democratic governor, Jeanne Shaheen. It really is a battle of heavyweights up there. Shaheen seems to have a small advantage, especially with independents, especially with female independents, and there are a lot of independent voters in New Hampshire.

COSTELLO: OK, Arkansas. BROWNSTEIN: A tough one for the Republicans. Maybe the one most likely for them to lose. Incumbent Senator Tim Hutchinson, a first term conservative, he's had questions about his personal life. He was divorced and remarried. The Democratic opponent is the son of former Senator David Pryor. He's the attorney general and he has run a very effective centrist populist campaign. And he is given the edge.

All of this lengthens the odds for the Republicans of retaking the Senate, if they can't hold at least two of these three seats.

COSTELLO: Oh, it's going to be a fascinating time, isn't it?

Thank you very much, Ron Brownstein, for filling us in.

BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.

COSTELLO: We're going to have much more on the election coming up in the next hour on CNN's AMERICAN MORNING with Paula Zahn. Our reporter roundtable includes Bob Franken in Minnesota, John King at the White House and Kate Snow on Capitol Hill.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired October 31, 2002 - 06:23   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: Five days and counting until America votes. The balance of power in the Senate is up for grabs on Tuesday and right now some key races are too close to call.
CNN political analyst Ron Brownstein is back with us this morning. He's live from Washington -- Ron, welcome back.

RON BROWNSTEIN, "LOS ANGELES TIMES," CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning.

COSTELLO: Let's talk about some of the close races, like the one in Colorado.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes, let's start with the math, Carol. The Democrats had a one seat advantage in the Senate. So that for each seat the Republicans lose, they make the hill a little higher. If they lose one of their own seats, they have to win two Democratic seats. If they lose two of their own seats, they have to win three Democratic seats. And you could see how that math very quickly gets daunting.

Colorado is one of three races where Republicans hold the seat now, but they're right on the edge. You have a first term incumbent, Wayne Allard, who really hasn't made much of an impression on the state during his six years and now finds himself in a very tough rematch against Tom Strickland, an attorney, later a U.S. attorney, that he ran again and beat, ran against and beat in 1996.

This time it's much too close to call, but with Allard polling very low in the 40s, that's not a good sign for an incumbent this close to an election. The one hope Republicans have, it's a very good Republican state. Maybe turnout can push them over the line.

COSTELLO: Let's turn our attention quickly to New Hampshire, because that has been a particularly nasty race.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes, it's been a terrific race, actually. John Sununu, the congressman, son of the former chief of staff for the first George Bush, beat an incumbent Republican senator in the primary. He's facing the outgoing Democratic governor, Jeanne Shaheen. It really is a battle of heavyweights up there. Shaheen seems to have a small advantage, especially with independents, especially with female independents, and there are a lot of independent voters in New Hampshire.

COSTELLO: OK, Arkansas. BROWNSTEIN: A tough one for the Republicans. Maybe the one most likely for them to lose. Incumbent Senator Tim Hutchinson, a first term conservative, he's had questions about his personal life. He was divorced and remarried. The Democratic opponent is the son of former Senator David Pryor. He's the attorney general and he has run a very effective centrist populist campaign. And he is given the edge.

All of this lengthens the odds for the Republicans of retaking the Senate, if they can't hold at least two of these three seats.

COSTELLO: Oh, it's going to be a fascinating time, isn't it?

Thank you very much, Ron Brownstein, for filling us in.

BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.

COSTELLO: We're going to have much more on the election coming up in the next hour on CNN's AMERICAN MORNING with Paula Zahn. Our reporter roundtable includes Bob Franken in Minnesota, John King at the White House and Kate Snow on Capitol Hill.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com