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American Morning
America Votes 2002: Look at Tight Races Around Country
Aired November 04, 2002 - 08:31 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: President Bush doing everything he can now to see that the midterm election bucks the historical trend. In the first of several stops today, the president heads for Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and right now, Kelly Wallace is there right now tracking the president's movement and the speech a bit later.
Kelly, good morning.
KELLY WALLACE, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Bill. Well, the stakes are high for the president. He knows with a Republican Senate and a Republican House, he would have a better chance of getting his domestic agenda passed, and he would also have a very strong foundation for his re-election in 2004. That is driving an intense campaign schedule over three days. From Saturday through Election Day, the president will have traveled to 11 cities and 10 states, starting in Tennessee, stops including Tampa, Florida, to give his brother Jeb a boost. On Sunday, it was off to Illinois, Minnesota and South Dakota, and today, again, we start the day in Iowa, and off to Missouri, Arkansas and Texas, three states with very tight Senate races.
Last night, the president made his second stop in South Dakota in four days, trying to put Republican Congressmen John Thune over the top over Democratic Senator Timothy Johnson. According to the last CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll, Thune has a lead of three points. A victory here would be an especially welcome victory in White House. Since South Dakota happens to be the home state of Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle.
Now earlier in the day, the president today plunges into really the most politically sensitive race in the country, traveling to St. Paul, Minnesota, to stump for Minnesota Senate candidate Norm Coleman. There, the president walking a delicate balance between campaigning for Coleman and remembering the late Senator Wellstone who died in a plane crash now just 10 days ago.
But through it all now, White House officials are trying to lowball expectations a bit before Election Day. They seem confident that Republicans will maintain control of the House. They are less confident, unsure about what will happen in the Senate, but, Bill, as you said at the top, they say this president will buck the historical trend. They say traditionally, the president's party loses ground in the midterm elections. They say that won't happen this time around.
Bill, back to you.
HEMMER: We shall all see tomorrow. Thank you, Kelly. Kelly Wallace watching things in Iowa -- Paula.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Back to that tight race in Minnesota. Depending on which paper you read in that state, Walter Mondale is either ahead by five points or behind by six. Both Mondale and his opponent, Norm Coleman, hit the campaign trail hard this weekend, and they're set to debate this morning at 11:00 Eastern in a one-time make-or-break (ph) confrontation.
And joining us now to discuss how this race got so close is our senior political analyst Jeff Greenfield, the guy who probably never went to bed last night. We were up here late last night.
Good morning.
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SR. ANALYST: Hi.
ZAHN: Now, this was a race that people thought might be a cakewalk, once Walter Mondale announced he was going to run. That hasn't happened. Why is it so tight right now?
GREENFIELD: The first thing is, that this race was close when Paul Wellstone was alive. He had maybe a five or six point lead. More important, Minnesota that we think about as a very hard-core Democratic state hasn't been that for a while. Al Gore almost lost it in 2000. Walter Mondale almost lost it in the presidential race in 1984.
You had the memorial service that would have put a very kind of somber sheen, if you will, over the Mondale's entrance and turned into a partisan political rally. It got out of hand. Some Republicans were booed.
And that past and future theme, last of all, which almost cost Mondale the presidential nomination in 1984 to a young man named Gary Hart, works. Norm Coleman was campaigning with his father yesterday. And I'm sure it was just a nice family thing. But I wondered if part of that message was, this is Mondale's age, this is a man 21 years younger.
ZAHN: I can guess that was part of the message.
GREENFIELD: Maybe not, but it hit me.
ZAHN: Let's talk about the debate, the importance of that today.
GREENFIELD: You know, first of all, as far as I know, it's unprecedented to have had a debate less than 24 hours before the polls open. It's the circumstance, in part. I think this will be really critical. If the race is this close, it isn't that all of Minnesotans will stay home from school and watch it, but it will dominate the local evening newscast. It will be the last piece of information voters have before they go to the polls, and I think it's going to be probably the single most important factor left in the race. ZAHN: When do you think we will know who controls the Senate on election night? Is it true I mixed up my sports analogies you had made?
GREENFIELD: I'm afraid so. I was suggesting that the race would be over before the NFL playoffs begin, which is December, but you know, you may the right, it could be June.
ZAHN: I had the wrong sport. I said the NBA finals.
GREENFIELD: But you know what, the way things are going, it could be next June. Look in Hennepin County, Minnesota, which is a quarter of the population, they're not going to release votes until midnight Central Time. That's 1:00 Eastern Time. That's just one race. If you look at all these other races, it could be days, and as we've all been saying, if it's even except for Louisiana, we'll know December 7th, when the Louisiana runoff takes place. And all I can say is that, you know, Bill Hemmer who spent a month in Florida, maybe he gets go to New Orleans in December, put on 50 pounds.
HEMMER: That's not a bad option actually. It beats Tallahassee.
GREENFIELD: There you go.
ZAHN: Come back to North Carolina very quickly in closing. How is Elizabeth Dole expected to do there?
GREENFIELD: Well, she's ahead. It's tightening. It's really interesting. First of all, if she wins, both spouses of the 1996 presidential candidates will be in the Senate. That's never happened. And it's another one of those cases where family -- all of these races around the country, it's a family affair. She is the wife of the onetime nominee. Erskine Bowles daddy ran for governor of North Carolina in 1972, and we could go down from one end of the country of the other showing you wives, husbands, daughters, sons. In Ohio, Governor Bob Taft will probably win. His great grandfather was president. His daddy was Senate Republican leader -- I mean, his grandaddy. His father was Senator. And he's a governor. All I can think of in that state, if the kid wants to go into the music business, they will say, sorry, you have to be senator or governor.
ZAHN: Right, it's predestined.
But it's interesting, in a time when you've heard politicians that retire, say that it really cost them time with their family, compromised their personal lives and, yet, the legacy of so many of these politicians is just this, the family goes on.
GREENFIELD: Kid after kid. John Sununu's daddy was governor of New Hampshire and White House chief of staff. Kathleen Sebelius (ph), who is leading in Kansas -- I didn't even know this -- her daddy was Jack Gilligan (ph), governor of Ohio. Stephane Hersup (ph), the 31- year-old in South Dakota, both her grandfather and her father were prominent South Dakota officials. So for all that we hear about terrible toll on the family, the kids can't seem to -- can't wait to get into the business. ZAHN: You made a fascinating observation as we were in the lead- in to this peace, talking about the president crisscrossing the country, sort of on this barnstorming tour, and how in the end, how effective that might be, particularly as "USA Today" is reporting in a Gallup poll, it appears as though the Republicans are gaining ground in House races, and they may, you know, add a little more to their thin majority.
GREENFIELD: Well, in the House, and then we'll see about the Senate, but it occurs to me, here is a president with, even though they've declined, their historically high popularity ratings. So when he goes out, every piece that we and there other network does about a close Senate race has the president in front of cheering crowds, because that's part of the story, and it kind of makes that message a dominant national theme. We've talked forever about what the national theme is; it's the only constant in any race, is the appearance of a popular president, and if we're talking about firing up the base, that poll number that says Republicans are more enthusiastic now than Democrats, the presence of the president in 16 states may be a reason. Eight years ago, when Bill Clinton went out to campaign with a 40 percent approval rating, it hurt the party. This is very different circumstances.
ZAHN: Thank you, Jeff. See you soon.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired November 4, 2002 - 08:31 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: President Bush doing everything he can now to see that the midterm election bucks the historical trend. In the first of several stops today, the president heads for Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and right now, Kelly Wallace is there right now tracking the president's movement and the speech a bit later.
Kelly, good morning.
KELLY WALLACE, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Bill. Well, the stakes are high for the president. He knows with a Republican Senate and a Republican House, he would have a better chance of getting his domestic agenda passed, and he would also have a very strong foundation for his re-election in 2004. That is driving an intense campaign schedule over three days. From Saturday through Election Day, the president will have traveled to 11 cities and 10 states, starting in Tennessee, stops including Tampa, Florida, to give his brother Jeb a boost. On Sunday, it was off to Illinois, Minnesota and South Dakota, and today, again, we start the day in Iowa, and off to Missouri, Arkansas and Texas, three states with very tight Senate races.
Last night, the president made his second stop in South Dakota in four days, trying to put Republican Congressmen John Thune over the top over Democratic Senator Timothy Johnson. According to the last CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll, Thune has a lead of three points. A victory here would be an especially welcome victory in White House. Since South Dakota happens to be the home state of Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle.
Now earlier in the day, the president today plunges into really the most politically sensitive race in the country, traveling to St. Paul, Minnesota, to stump for Minnesota Senate candidate Norm Coleman. There, the president walking a delicate balance between campaigning for Coleman and remembering the late Senator Wellstone who died in a plane crash now just 10 days ago.
But through it all now, White House officials are trying to lowball expectations a bit before Election Day. They seem confident that Republicans will maintain control of the House. They are less confident, unsure about what will happen in the Senate, but, Bill, as you said at the top, they say this president will buck the historical trend. They say traditionally, the president's party loses ground in the midterm elections. They say that won't happen this time around.
Bill, back to you.
HEMMER: We shall all see tomorrow. Thank you, Kelly. Kelly Wallace watching things in Iowa -- Paula.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Back to that tight race in Minnesota. Depending on which paper you read in that state, Walter Mondale is either ahead by five points or behind by six. Both Mondale and his opponent, Norm Coleman, hit the campaign trail hard this weekend, and they're set to debate this morning at 11:00 Eastern in a one-time make-or-break (ph) confrontation.
And joining us now to discuss how this race got so close is our senior political analyst Jeff Greenfield, the guy who probably never went to bed last night. We were up here late last night.
Good morning.
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SR. ANALYST: Hi.
ZAHN: Now, this was a race that people thought might be a cakewalk, once Walter Mondale announced he was going to run. That hasn't happened. Why is it so tight right now?
GREENFIELD: The first thing is, that this race was close when Paul Wellstone was alive. He had maybe a five or six point lead. More important, Minnesota that we think about as a very hard-core Democratic state hasn't been that for a while. Al Gore almost lost it in 2000. Walter Mondale almost lost it in the presidential race in 1984.
You had the memorial service that would have put a very kind of somber sheen, if you will, over the Mondale's entrance and turned into a partisan political rally. It got out of hand. Some Republicans were booed.
And that past and future theme, last of all, which almost cost Mondale the presidential nomination in 1984 to a young man named Gary Hart, works. Norm Coleman was campaigning with his father yesterday. And I'm sure it was just a nice family thing. But I wondered if part of that message was, this is Mondale's age, this is a man 21 years younger.
ZAHN: I can guess that was part of the message.
GREENFIELD: Maybe not, but it hit me.
ZAHN: Let's talk about the debate, the importance of that today.
GREENFIELD: You know, first of all, as far as I know, it's unprecedented to have had a debate less than 24 hours before the polls open. It's the circumstance, in part. I think this will be really critical. If the race is this close, it isn't that all of Minnesotans will stay home from school and watch it, but it will dominate the local evening newscast. It will be the last piece of information voters have before they go to the polls, and I think it's going to be probably the single most important factor left in the race. ZAHN: When do you think we will know who controls the Senate on election night? Is it true I mixed up my sports analogies you had made?
GREENFIELD: I'm afraid so. I was suggesting that the race would be over before the NFL playoffs begin, which is December, but you know, you may the right, it could be June.
ZAHN: I had the wrong sport. I said the NBA finals.
GREENFIELD: But you know what, the way things are going, it could be next June. Look in Hennepin County, Minnesota, which is a quarter of the population, they're not going to release votes until midnight Central Time. That's 1:00 Eastern Time. That's just one race. If you look at all these other races, it could be days, and as we've all been saying, if it's even except for Louisiana, we'll know December 7th, when the Louisiana runoff takes place. And all I can say is that, you know, Bill Hemmer who spent a month in Florida, maybe he gets go to New Orleans in December, put on 50 pounds.
HEMMER: That's not a bad option actually. It beats Tallahassee.
GREENFIELD: There you go.
ZAHN: Come back to North Carolina very quickly in closing. How is Elizabeth Dole expected to do there?
GREENFIELD: Well, she's ahead. It's tightening. It's really interesting. First of all, if she wins, both spouses of the 1996 presidential candidates will be in the Senate. That's never happened. And it's another one of those cases where family -- all of these races around the country, it's a family affair. She is the wife of the onetime nominee. Erskine Bowles daddy ran for governor of North Carolina in 1972, and we could go down from one end of the country of the other showing you wives, husbands, daughters, sons. In Ohio, Governor Bob Taft will probably win. His great grandfather was president. His daddy was Senate Republican leader -- I mean, his grandaddy. His father was Senator. And he's a governor. All I can think of in that state, if the kid wants to go into the music business, they will say, sorry, you have to be senator or governor.
ZAHN: Right, it's predestined.
But it's interesting, in a time when you've heard politicians that retire, say that it really cost them time with their family, compromised their personal lives and, yet, the legacy of so many of these politicians is just this, the family goes on.
GREENFIELD: Kid after kid. John Sununu's daddy was governor of New Hampshire and White House chief of staff. Kathleen Sebelius (ph), who is leading in Kansas -- I didn't even know this -- her daddy was Jack Gilligan (ph), governor of Ohio. Stephane Hersup (ph), the 31- year-old in South Dakota, both her grandfather and her father were prominent South Dakota officials. So for all that we hear about terrible toll on the family, the kids can't seem to -- can't wait to get into the business. ZAHN: You made a fascinating observation as we were in the lead- in to this peace, talking about the president crisscrossing the country, sort of on this barnstorming tour, and how in the end, how effective that might be, particularly as "USA Today" is reporting in a Gallup poll, it appears as though the Republicans are gaining ground in House races, and they may, you know, add a little more to their thin majority.
GREENFIELD: Well, in the House, and then we'll see about the Senate, but it occurs to me, here is a president with, even though they've declined, their historically high popularity ratings. So when he goes out, every piece that we and there other network does about a close Senate race has the president in front of cheering crowds, because that's part of the story, and it kind of makes that message a dominant national theme. We've talked forever about what the national theme is; it's the only constant in any race, is the appearance of a popular president, and if we're talking about firing up the base, that poll number that says Republicans are more enthusiastic now than Democrats, the presence of the president in 16 states may be a reason. Eight years ago, when Bill Clinton went out to campaign with a 40 percent approval rating, it hurt the party. This is very different circumstances.
ZAHN: Thank you, Jeff. See you soon.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
