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American Morning

Minding Your Business: Are We in a Recession

Aired November 04, 2002 - 08:48   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


ANDY SERWER, "FORTUNE" MAGAZINE: Are we in a recession? Paula, this is the big question. Of course, it's a hot topic now with the election tomorrow as well. The problem here is there is no single hard and fast definition of a recession. There is at least three. There is the rule of thumb, two quarters in a row, the economy contracting. Then there's also the NBER -- the National Bureau of Economic Research. This is a nonpartisan, nonprofit research group here. It meets and decides whether or not there is a recession. It decided a year ago in November that a recession began in March of 2001. So far, they have not said that the recession is over.
So according to the NBER, these are some of the things they look at. industrial production, employment, etc. So if you look at those two definitions, the first one, the rule of thumb, which is a couple of quarters contracting, where the economy does not grow, that indicates we are not in a recession. Because the economy has grown since the fourth quarter of 2001.

However, the NBER definition says we are in a recession. That brings us to our third definition, and that is your gut. What do you think? I'll tell you something. I think that is very important. Because when you come to something like an election, people are going to vote and they are going to decide whether or not they don't think things are going so well. If you ask me, I think that we are in a mild recession right now.

ZAHN: We always trust you, Andy. Wish you were wrong.

SERWER: The economy is still growing, Paula. But if you look at the stock market and you look at profits, and especially job loss and the unemployment rate, I think you would really have to say that the economy is in a mild recession right now.

ZAHN: All right, Andy. See you in our next hour. Thank you so much. Hope you feel better.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired November 4, 2002 - 08:48   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
ANDY SERWER, "FORTUNE" MAGAZINE: Are we in a recession? Paula, this is the big question. Of course, it's a hot topic now with the election tomorrow as well. The problem here is there is no single hard and fast definition of a recession. There is at least three. There is the rule of thumb, two quarters in a row, the economy contracting. Then there's also the NBER -- the National Bureau of Economic Research. This is a nonpartisan, nonprofit research group here. It meets and decides whether or not there is a recession. It decided a year ago in November that a recession began in March of 2001. So far, they have not said that the recession is over.
So according to the NBER, these are some of the things they look at. industrial production, employment, etc. So if you look at those two definitions, the first one, the rule of thumb, which is a couple of quarters contracting, where the economy does not grow, that indicates we are not in a recession. Because the economy has grown since the fourth quarter of 2001.

However, the NBER definition says we are in a recession. That brings us to our third definition, and that is your gut. What do you think? I'll tell you something. I think that is very important. Because when you come to something like an election, people are going to vote and they are going to decide whether or not they don't think things are going so well. If you ask me, I think that we are in a mild recession right now.

ZAHN: We always trust you, Andy. Wish you were wrong.

SERWER: The economy is still growing, Paula. But if you look at the stock market and you look at profits, and especially job loss and the unemployment rate, I think you would really have to say that the economy is in a mild recession right now.

ZAHN: All right, Andy. See you in our next hour. Thank you so much. Hope you feel better.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com