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American Morning

In Florida, Polls Say Governor Jeb Bush Leading

Aired November 05, 2002 - 07:33   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Back here in Florida now, the polls say Governor Jeb Bush is leading Democrat Bill McBride by about eight percentage points, depending on which poll you pay attention to. Others are saying it's too close to call. Jimmy Buffet brought a taste of Margaritaville to a crowd yesterday at McBride rally under way near Tampa.
Will the challenger be singing a happy tune this time tomorrow? We shall see. By Tampa this morning, our election analyst David Cardwell is back with us, 24 months after Tallahassee.

Great to see you again, David.

Good morning to you.

DAVID CARDWELL, ELECTION ANALYST: It seems like old times, Bill.

HEMMER: Oh, yes. Too old.

Listen, the governor's race, quickly, do you see it the same way, six to eight favoring Bush?

CARDWELL: The polls have been all over the place, ranging Republican McBride ahead to Bush ahead by a large margin. I think it shows that we've got a tight race. It could shift and go either direction. Turnout is going to be the key today.

HEMMER: Yes, turnout, indeed.

What about this election reform? $32 million pumped into the state. What are voters going to find today? What's your take on that, David?

CARDWELL: I think they're going to find that those that didn't vote in September in the primary, a brand new technology, a lot of touch screen machines. The old punch card machines are gone. We won't have any chads this time. But we may have a problem with heavy turnout. These new touch screen machines just take longer to vote and we've got a very long ballot in some of our big counties.

HEMMER: Yes, listen to this, David. They're saying up to 20 minutes for the average voter here in Miami-Dade. A similar story in Broward, we're hearing. Also, on the ballot in Broward, that extends about 11 pages at the minimum, there's a death penalty question that's 549 words long. It sounds like an essay as opposed to a poll question. How does this now factor into what may happen today? CARDWELL: Well, there's a concern that it is going to take a long time for people to vote. And particularly with the touch screens, because you have to go through every page or every screen before you can get to the end. We had early voting for the first time in this state this year and we found that it was taking about 15 minutes per voter once they got to the machine. So the 20 minutes you're hearing from the "Herald" is in line with what we found during early voting, and that means it's going to take a long time to get all these voters through the polling places.

HEMMER: Yes, I also heard you say that bus loads of senior citizens have been taken out away from retirement homes, taken to the polls early. Do you have a take right now on what and how that may influence the outcome today?

CARDWELL: Well, that did happen, particularly in south Florida, where we did early voting, where it was more a voting by convenience. You could just go to the supervisor's office and vote early. And a lot of the senior citizen homes and other type facilities took advantage of that and took their voters in early.

For example, in Broward County, they have over 70,000 voters who voted early or by absentee.

HEMMER: Wow.

CARDWELL: It's a significant number.

HEMMER: Indeed, it is.

On a legal front, David, the Democrats have boasted essentially that they have 10,000 political attorneys fanned out across the country right now, ready essentially to look and decipher and discern as to whether or not the vote across the country is legitimate.

You're a lawyer. What's your take right now, knowing that the legalities of politics that we saw in Florida two years ago, right now looks like it is ready to blossom yet again.

CARDWELL: Well, I think one of the legacies of the 36 days is that elections are going -- will get a lot more attention from the legal standpoint as well as from the political. I hope we don't have to go through what we did in 2000 in Florida. I think the technology is going to be much better. I'm concerned about the turnout putting too much of a burden on the system. But we'll have lawyers from both sides looking at what goes on to make sure the election laws, particularly in Florida, the new election laws are followed.

HEMMER: Yes, and I've got to think, too, though, if there are many legal challenges, be it Republican or Democrat, there could be backlash from America, too. I think a lot of Americans, frankly, are still ticked off about the drag out and the delay in Florida two years ago.

Do you feel the same or not?

CARDWELL: Well, you know the old saying, everyone loves their own lawyer but not the other side's lawyer.

HEMMER: Yes, that's true.

CARDWELL: And I think that's probably what will happen here.

HEMMER: Good deal.

Hey, David, thanks. Great to chat with you, as always, OK? Good luck today.

CARDWELL: Good seeing you again, Bill.

HEMMER: You, too, David.

CARDWELL: OK.

HEMMER: David Cardwell in Tampa this morning.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired November 5, 2002 - 07:33   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Back here in Florida now, the polls say Governor Jeb Bush is leading Democrat Bill McBride by about eight percentage points, depending on which poll you pay attention to. Others are saying it's too close to call. Jimmy Buffet brought a taste of Margaritaville to a crowd yesterday at McBride rally under way near Tampa.
Will the challenger be singing a happy tune this time tomorrow? We shall see. By Tampa this morning, our election analyst David Cardwell is back with us, 24 months after Tallahassee.

Great to see you again, David.

Good morning to you.

DAVID CARDWELL, ELECTION ANALYST: It seems like old times, Bill.

HEMMER: Oh, yes. Too old.

Listen, the governor's race, quickly, do you see it the same way, six to eight favoring Bush?

CARDWELL: The polls have been all over the place, ranging Republican McBride ahead to Bush ahead by a large margin. I think it shows that we've got a tight race. It could shift and go either direction. Turnout is going to be the key today.

HEMMER: Yes, turnout, indeed.

What about this election reform? $32 million pumped into the state. What are voters going to find today? What's your take on that, David?

CARDWELL: I think they're going to find that those that didn't vote in September in the primary, a brand new technology, a lot of touch screen machines. The old punch card machines are gone. We won't have any chads this time. But we may have a problem with heavy turnout. These new touch screen machines just take longer to vote and we've got a very long ballot in some of our big counties.

HEMMER: Yes, listen to this, David. They're saying up to 20 minutes for the average voter here in Miami-Dade. A similar story in Broward, we're hearing. Also, on the ballot in Broward, that extends about 11 pages at the minimum, there's a death penalty question that's 549 words long. It sounds like an essay as opposed to a poll question. How does this now factor into what may happen today? CARDWELL: Well, there's a concern that it is going to take a long time for people to vote. And particularly with the touch screens, because you have to go through every page or every screen before you can get to the end. We had early voting for the first time in this state this year and we found that it was taking about 15 minutes per voter once they got to the machine. So the 20 minutes you're hearing from the "Herald" is in line with what we found during early voting, and that means it's going to take a long time to get all these voters through the polling places.

HEMMER: Yes, I also heard you say that bus loads of senior citizens have been taken out away from retirement homes, taken to the polls early. Do you have a take right now on what and how that may influence the outcome today?

CARDWELL: Well, that did happen, particularly in south Florida, where we did early voting, where it was more a voting by convenience. You could just go to the supervisor's office and vote early. And a lot of the senior citizen homes and other type facilities took advantage of that and took their voters in early.

For example, in Broward County, they have over 70,000 voters who voted early or by absentee.

HEMMER: Wow.

CARDWELL: It's a significant number.

HEMMER: Indeed, it is.

On a legal front, David, the Democrats have boasted essentially that they have 10,000 political attorneys fanned out across the country right now, ready essentially to look and decipher and discern as to whether or not the vote across the country is legitimate.

You're a lawyer. What's your take right now, knowing that the legalities of politics that we saw in Florida two years ago, right now looks like it is ready to blossom yet again.

CARDWELL: Well, I think one of the legacies of the 36 days is that elections are going -- will get a lot more attention from the legal standpoint as well as from the political. I hope we don't have to go through what we did in 2000 in Florida. I think the technology is going to be much better. I'm concerned about the turnout putting too much of a burden on the system. But we'll have lawyers from both sides looking at what goes on to make sure the election laws, particularly in Florida, the new election laws are followed.

HEMMER: Yes, and I've got to think, too, though, if there are many legal challenges, be it Republican or Democrat, there could be backlash from America, too. I think a lot of Americans, frankly, are still ticked off about the drag out and the delay in Florida two years ago.

Do you feel the same or not?

CARDWELL: Well, you know the old saying, everyone loves their own lawyer but not the other side's lawyer.

HEMMER: Yes, that's true.

CARDWELL: And I think that's probably what will happen here.

HEMMER: Good deal.

Hey, David, thanks. Great to chat with you, as always, OK? Good luck today.

CARDWELL: Good seeing you again, Bill.

HEMMER: You, too, David.

CARDWELL: OK.

HEMMER: David Cardwell in Tampa this morning.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com