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American Morning
Interview With Richard Butler
Aired November 19, 2002 - 07:05 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: With hundreds of prospective sites to search in Iraq, which is about the size of California, is disarming Iraq really mission impossible?
Joining us once again from Sydney, Australia is former chief U.N. weapons inspector, Richard Butler.
Welcome back, Richard. We're going to start this morning with a map of Iraq that we want you to analyze for us this morning.
RICHARD BUTLER, FMR. CHIEF WEAPONS INSPECTOR: Goodness me.
ZAHN: There are presidential compounds in the north in Mosul, in the south in Basra...
BUTLER: Right.
ZAHN: ... and various potential chemical, nuclear and biological sites scattered all over the country.
Now, when you look at the estimated start date, November 27, the inspectors then have 60 days before they're expected to update the Security Council. Can they do it in that amount of time?
BUTLER: Well, they can, Paula, but people should clearly understand -- in anticipation of our talk this morning, I went back to the resolution and looked at it. People should understand that what the resolution says is that 60 days after the first inspection that there should be, as you said, an update. Some people have the view that it would be all over in 60 days, and I think that's quite wrong.
The sites, as you said, are enormous. There are over 100 of them. The areas involved are very considerable.
Take the presidential sites, for example. When we last measured them four years ago, there were eight palaces, but those palaces had around them presidential areas totaling some 50 square miles, 1,100 buildings, some of them warehouse-size buildings in which weapons or related materials could be kept.
So, what are they going to do? They're going to start on the 27th of November. They will go to the key places, and they'll give a report after 60 days on -- an update on how they're doing. Will it be over then? No, unless, of course, Iraq blocks them.
ZAHN: Do you expect that to happen? BUTLER: Not directly. I think Iraq recognizes that this is their final chance, as the words of the Security Council resolution say. And I don't think they would be foolish enough to actually physically block an inspection, as they did with us in the past at gunpoint. I don't think they'll do that.
I think what they might do is send people down back alleys, slow things down. And of course, what we don't know is what other sites there are, other than those on the map, where they may -- you know, secret sites, where they may have hidden weapons. And that will be a tough call for the inspectors to find those places.
ZAHN: Well, there are plenty of former weapons inspectors that you are very familiar with that are pessimistic about this process. We're going to put up on the screen now something that David Kay had to say, where he said -- quote...
BUTLER: Right.
ZAHN: ... "I don't believe any conceivable inspections regime can successfully disarm an Iraq that wants to keep its weapons."
And another former weapons inspector, Tim Trevan, is similarly pessimistic. He says: "I believe this is mission impossible. I believe it is necessary so that the international community can give Iraq one last chance, but it is mission impossible nonetheless."
So, once again, where do you fall on the scale?
BUTLER: What do I say about that? I know both of those men. They're good guys. You have to pay attention to what they say. They are deeply experienced, and they're giving us a warning, which we should pay heed to, I think.
Look, the basic situation is this: Iraq has been told that it has a final chance. Now, we know that Saddam has weapons of mass destruction and is definitely, you know, concerned not to give them up. On the other side of the ledger, he's been told it is the final chance, and if he doesn't give them up, then he'll be history, to put it simply.
In addition, the inspectors now have new powers, new equipment, new ways of going about their business. This produces a situation, Paula, which will be absolutely fascinating to follow. Real hard choices for Saddam to make; real capabilities on the part of the inspectors.
What will happen? I believe Iraq does not want to give up its weapons of mass destruction. So, they will try to wiggle out of it, to deceive in certain ways.
On the other hand, the inspectors are much more capable than we were in the past, in terms of the powers and equipment that they have, and I think they've got a fair chance of running to ground the truth of the matter. Will they get all of it? Will Iraq succeed in wiggling out of it? We don't know. But, Paula, it's going to be a fascinating game to watch, the next point of which, of course, is Iraq's declaration by 8 December on what weapons it has. That's what we have to watch as the next big point.
ZAHN: Richard, we've just 20 seconds left. The "L.A. Times" wrote a very tough piece today on Hans Blix, suggesting that it's beginning -- quote -- "To look like Blix believes that his mission is not to discover Saddam Hussein's hidden arsenal, but to produce a diplomatic fig leaf that could render war impossible."
Are they right?
BUTLER: Not yet. I'm well aware of Hans Blix's past record, where there were some questions about his preference for diplomatic compromise as against the facts of a given matter. That happened in a couple of other places.
But I'm prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt right now, because right now, what he's saying is that he will do this job with a hard edge. I hope he does, because that's what's required, and I -- as I said, Paula, I think we should take him at his word for the time being and see where he goes with this thing.
ZAHN: As always, good to have you on the air -- Richard Butler, thanks for your insights this morning.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
Aired November 19, 2002 - 07:05 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: With hundreds of prospective sites to search in Iraq, which is about the size of California, is disarming Iraq really mission impossible?
Joining us once again from Sydney, Australia is former chief U.N. weapons inspector, Richard Butler.
Welcome back, Richard. We're going to start this morning with a map of Iraq that we want you to analyze for us this morning.
RICHARD BUTLER, FMR. CHIEF WEAPONS INSPECTOR: Goodness me.
ZAHN: There are presidential compounds in the north in Mosul, in the south in Basra...
BUTLER: Right.
ZAHN: ... and various potential chemical, nuclear and biological sites scattered all over the country.
Now, when you look at the estimated start date, November 27, the inspectors then have 60 days before they're expected to update the Security Council. Can they do it in that amount of time?
BUTLER: Well, they can, Paula, but people should clearly understand -- in anticipation of our talk this morning, I went back to the resolution and looked at it. People should understand that what the resolution says is that 60 days after the first inspection that there should be, as you said, an update. Some people have the view that it would be all over in 60 days, and I think that's quite wrong.
The sites, as you said, are enormous. There are over 100 of them. The areas involved are very considerable.
Take the presidential sites, for example. When we last measured them four years ago, there were eight palaces, but those palaces had around them presidential areas totaling some 50 square miles, 1,100 buildings, some of them warehouse-size buildings in which weapons or related materials could be kept.
So, what are they going to do? They're going to start on the 27th of November. They will go to the key places, and they'll give a report after 60 days on -- an update on how they're doing. Will it be over then? No, unless, of course, Iraq blocks them.
ZAHN: Do you expect that to happen? BUTLER: Not directly. I think Iraq recognizes that this is their final chance, as the words of the Security Council resolution say. And I don't think they would be foolish enough to actually physically block an inspection, as they did with us in the past at gunpoint. I don't think they'll do that.
I think what they might do is send people down back alleys, slow things down. And of course, what we don't know is what other sites there are, other than those on the map, where they may -- you know, secret sites, where they may have hidden weapons. And that will be a tough call for the inspectors to find those places.
ZAHN: Well, there are plenty of former weapons inspectors that you are very familiar with that are pessimistic about this process. We're going to put up on the screen now something that David Kay had to say, where he said -- quote...
BUTLER: Right.
ZAHN: ... "I don't believe any conceivable inspections regime can successfully disarm an Iraq that wants to keep its weapons."
And another former weapons inspector, Tim Trevan, is similarly pessimistic. He says: "I believe this is mission impossible. I believe it is necessary so that the international community can give Iraq one last chance, but it is mission impossible nonetheless."
So, once again, where do you fall on the scale?
BUTLER: What do I say about that? I know both of those men. They're good guys. You have to pay attention to what they say. They are deeply experienced, and they're giving us a warning, which we should pay heed to, I think.
Look, the basic situation is this: Iraq has been told that it has a final chance. Now, we know that Saddam has weapons of mass destruction and is definitely, you know, concerned not to give them up. On the other side of the ledger, he's been told it is the final chance, and if he doesn't give them up, then he'll be history, to put it simply.
In addition, the inspectors now have new powers, new equipment, new ways of going about their business. This produces a situation, Paula, which will be absolutely fascinating to follow. Real hard choices for Saddam to make; real capabilities on the part of the inspectors.
What will happen? I believe Iraq does not want to give up its weapons of mass destruction. So, they will try to wiggle out of it, to deceive in certain ways.
On the other hand, the inspectors are much more capable than we were in the past, in terms of the powers and equipment that they have, and I think they've got a fair chance of running to ground the truth of the matter. Will they get all of it? Will Iraq succeed in wiggling out of it? We don't know. But, Paula, it's going to be a fascinating game to watch, the next point of which, of course, is Iraq's declaration by 8 December on what weapons it has. That's what we have to watch as the next big point.
ZAHN: Richard, we've just 20 seconds left. The "L.A. Times" wrote a very tough piece today on Hans Blix, suggesting that it's beginning -- quote -- "To look like Blix believes that his mission is not to discover Saddam Hussein's hidden arsenal, but to produce a diplomatic fig leaf that could render war impossible."
Are they right?
BUTLER: Not yet. I'm well aware of Hans Blix's past record, where there were some questions about his preference for diplomatic compromise as against the facts of a given matter. That happened in a couple of other places.
But I'm prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt right now, because right now, what he's saying is that he will do this job with a hard edge. I hope he does, because that's what's required, and I -- as I said, Paula, I think we should take him at his word for the time being and see where he goes with this thing.
ZAHN: As always, good to have you on the air -- Richard Butler, thanks for your insights this morning.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
