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American Morning
Talk with Rick Gallagher from the National Retail Federation
Aired November 29, 2002 - 07:23 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: Oh, another holiday tradition has begun. Shoppers were out early in New York, waiting for the doors and gates to open, and they did. Many stores across the country are opening early for the traditional day after Thanksgiving shopping. We affectionately call it Black Friday.
The question for retailers, though, will shoppers dig deep into their wallets during this holiday season or will they play it safe because of worries about the economy and terrorism and the prospect of war?
The National Retail Federation actually is predicting that holiday sales will be up slightly this year. I think the key word there is slightly.
Rick Gallagher is with the National Retail Federation and he joins us live now from Washington.
Welcome.
RICK GALLAGHER, NATIONAL RETAIL FEDERATION: Good morning, Carol.
COSTELLO: So you think sales are going to be up?
GALLAGHER: Actually, we're predicting that sales are going to be up about four percent this year, and that is a little bit on the low side. That compares to about five percent last year. But clearly we're looking for a decent holiday season.
COSTELLO: It's so hard for me to believe that sales are going to be up with the economy like it is, people's 401Ks taking big hits.
GALLAGHER: Well, one of the things that we've seen are some good news for retailers, is that consumer confidence is up in the last week. We saw strong sales in October. And I think the most important part here is that people are at least secure in their jobs and they think that perhaps the worst of the recession is behind them. Because that...
COSTELLO: You think people are secure in their jobs?
GALLAGHER: Well, if you look at people in the most recent study, where they say what they feel about their personal present and future financial situation, is that those numbers have begun to turn around for the first time in about six months.
COSTELLO: Got you. I hope you're right. So how much do you think the average consumer will spend?
GALLAGHER: We're going to see the average family spending, at least this is what they say they're going to spend, is about $650 this year, although the one thing that we've found out over the years is that most consumers are notoriously bad at predicting what they're going to buy. They always buy more than they say they're going to.
COSTELLO: That's because they're oh so generous.
Hey, I have heard that people are really buying more accessories this year rather than big ticket items as gifts.
GALLAGHER: Well, one of the trends that we've seen over the years is that we have seen a lot of different kinds of gift giving. One of the things you need to remember, though, is that the number one gift in one way or another has always been apparel. It's the one thing that people like to give the most.
We also see this as an extremely strong gift giving season for jewelry. But the other big one that surprises a lot of people are flowers. Christmas is the biggest flower selling day of the years.
COSTELLO: Really, as in Poinsettias or all kinds of flowers?
GALLAGHER: All kinds, but especially Poinsettias.
COSTELLO: What's the hot toy this year? Is it Chicken Elmo?
GALLAGHER: Chicken Elmo, Chicken Dance Elmo is certainly one of them. But don't count out, you know, traditional Game Boys for boys and, you know, that Rapunzel Barbie for girls is still at the number one. Look for them.
COSTELLO: The Rapunzel Barbie. I'm going to have to remember that.
Let's talk about online sales for just a minute, because it's just getting bigger and bigger for online sales.
GALLAGHER: Indeed, they are, and online merchants are doing just about everything they can to help people like me, who are last minute shoppers. We had had in previous years some problems with delivery. Most of the people have taken care of those problems. And most of the players who are in this online marketplace now are pretty seasoned professionals and have a lot of the same names as traditional stores. So they know what they're doing and online shopping is a very different experience than it was two or three years ago.
COSTELLO: Yes, it's a lot easier and safer.
GALLAGHER: So we expect it to do well.
COSTELLO: Rick Gallagher, thanks very much, and I can see people already out in New York City, probably shopping.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Federation>
Aired November 29, 2002 - 07:23 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: Oh, another holiday tradition has begun. Shoppers were out early in New York, waiting for the doors and gates to open, and they did. Many stores across the country are opening early for the traditional day after Thanksgiving shopping. We affectionately call it Black Friday.
The question for retailers, though, will shoppers dig deep into their wallets during this holiday season or will they play it safe because of worries about the economy and terrorism and the prospect of war?
The National Retail Federation actually is predicting that holiday sales will be up slightly this year. I think the key word there is slightly.
Rick Gallagher is with the National Retail Federation and he joins us live now from Washington.
Welcome.
RICK GALLAGHER, NATIONAL RETAIL FEDERATION: Good morning, Carol.
COSTELLO: So you think sales are going to be up?
GALLAGHER: Actually, we're predicting that sales are going to be up about four percent this year, and that is a little bit on the low side. That compares to about five percent last year. But clearly we're looking for a decent holiday season.
COSTELLO: It's so hard for me to believe that sales are going to be up with the economy like it is, people's 401Ks taking big hits.
GALLAGHER: Well, one of the things that we've seen are some good news for retailers, is that consumer confidence is up in the last week. We saw strong sales in October. And I think the most important part here is that people are at least secure in their jobs and they think that perhaps the worst of the recession is behind them. Because that...
COSTELLO: You think people are secure in their jobs?
GALLAGHER: Well, if you look at people in the most recent study, where they say what they feel about their personal present and future financial situation, is that those numbers have begun to turn around for the first time in about six months.
COSTELLO: Got you. I hope you're right. So how much do you think the average consumer will spend?
GALLAGHER: We're going to see the average family spending, at least this is what they say they're going to spend, is about $650 this year, although the one thing that we've found out over the years is that most consumers are notoriously bad at predicting what they're going to buy. They always buy more than they say they're going to.
COSTELLO: That's because they're oh so generous.
Hey, I have heard that people are really buying more accessories this year rather than big ticket items as gifts.
GALLAGHER: Well, one of the trends that we've seen over the years is that we have seen a lot of different kinds of gift giving. One of the things you need to remember, though, is that the number one gift in one way or another has always been apparel. It's the one thing that people like to give the most.
We also see this as an extremely strong gift giving season for jewelry. But the other big one that surprises a lot of people are flowers. Christmas is the biggest flower selling day of the years.
COSTELLO: Really, as in Poinsettias or all kinds of flowers?
GALLAGHER: All kinds, but especially Poinsettias.
COSTELLO: What's the hot toy this year? Is it Chicken Elmo?
GALLAGHER: Chicken Elmo, Chicken Dance Elmo is certainly one of them. But don't count out, you know, traditional Game Boys for boys and, you know, that Rapunzel Barbie for girls is still at the number one. Look for them.
COSTELLO: The Rapunzel Barbie. I'm going to have to remember that.
Let's talk about online sales for just a minute, because it's just getting bigger and bigger for online sales.
GALLAGHER: Indeed, they are, and online merchants are doing just about everything they can to help people like me, who are last minute shoppers. We had had in previous years some problems with delivery. Most of the people have taken care of those problems. And most of the players who are in this online marketplace now are pretty seasoned professionals and have a lot of the same names as traditional stores. So they know what they're doing and online shopping is a very different experience than it was two or three years ago.
COSTELLO: Yes, it's a lot easier and safer.
GALLAGHER: So we expect it to do well.
COSTELLO: Rick Gallagher, thanks very much, and I can see people already out in New York City, probably shopping.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Federation>
