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American Morning

Look at Holiday Spending, Politics

Aired December 02, 2002 - 09:32   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Want to get now to the holiday scene right now, shopping in full frenzy. We've talked about that for the past week. The air right now is filled with the sounds of jingling cash registers and honking horns at the malls and a lot less parking, too.
The usual complaints of commercialization all season, but if you wish it would all just go away, our senior analyst, Jeff Greenfield, is here to tell you one thing, "Be careful what you wish for."

Is that so? Good morning.

JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SENIOR ANALYST: Well yes, I mean, 40 years ago the songwriter/satirist Tom Leer (ph) summed the feeling up, "Hark the "Herald Tribune" sings, advertising wondrous things, angels we have heard on high, tell us to go out and buy."

And, you know, anyone who's battles crowds and budgets and frostbite in the search for holiday stuff is likely to think, "Why can't we rediscover the true meaning of the season?" It is the theme of dozens of Christmas specials, sponsored of course by people who then want you to go out and buy stuff.

But just think for a minute. What would happen if we all discovered the spirit of the season and stopped buying? I'll tell what you would happen. Economic disaster. This year, Americans will likely spend about $200 billion on stuff, almost all of it within a little more than a month. Now, you take that money out of system, you have a recipe for economic train wreck. It would, for instance, just about wipe out toy business. We spend about $70 billion on toys, most of it right about now.

And how about the $100 billion a year we spend on computers and video games? What about those bottles of Christmas cheer, the California wine industry alone is a $6.5 billion business. And maybe your tastes are more refined, no wine pun intended, and your gift ideas run, say, to books. OK, without the holiday season, then the nearly $17.5 billion book business would just about collapse. And remember, no holiday sales, no sales tax receipts. Right now, the states face a total deficit of $40 billion. You take the money out from Christmas and you have a lot less money for schools and hospitals and roads and police, and there's one more item, us.

The commercial frenzy of the season means hundreds of millions of dollars to the nation's TV and radio stations, newspapers, magazines, so like it or not, and a lot of us don't, our economy is locked into the holiday giving and getting hysteria. So if the day ever comes when we all miraculously decide to celebrate only the spiritual side of the season and shun the commercialism, we might be a poorer but happier society. Of course, Bill, that might be a trade-off worth trying some day.

HEMMING: Two-hundred billion? Is that the figure?

GREENFIELD: That's the figure.

HEMMING: In this 26-day period?

GREENFIELD: Well, I mean, most of it. Some people are actually smart enough to buy in advance. But it's a concentrated shot and you add everything up. You're talking about holiday travel, hotels, airline tickets, everything, and it's about -- that's the estimate.

HEMMING: Let me flip your argument a second here because a lot of people think the spirit of giving is just that. Even though you spend money, even though it may be seen as commercialization, just fact you are going out and buying a gift says a lot about the person to whom you're giving it.

GREENFIELD: Well, there is something to it, but I'll tell you what, Bill. We're not that far from the big stores of New York, I suggest you go into any one of the stores about 4:00 in the afternoon, between now and Christmas, and see whether what you find is true holiday spirit or near-homicidal rage.

HEMMING: Listen, I hate to shop, OK? So that's the least of my priorities during the holiday season.

Quickly here, John Kerry over the weekend made a little bit of news -- going to talk politics for a moment here. Looks like he might be the first to throw his name in the hopper on the Democratic side.

GREENFIELD: Yes, he's announced an exploratory committee. One thing it tells you of course is the change in the calendar. I remember a time when people didn't even think of announcing for president until the calendar year of the presidency. Because of the front-loaded system and the way we raise money now, almost all the Democratic candidates in the race will have told us this by the end of this year, which is a year and 11 months before election day.

I think John Kerry, who is clearly a first-tier candidate, United States senator, he's going to take Bush on on international matters. I think he's come to the conclusion that you can't run against Bush simply by ignoring the world talking about domestic policy. I think one of his big questions comes down to a kind of personal question.

HEMMING: How so?

GREENFIELD: Well, people give Kerry big marks for intelligence and thoughtfulness, but they sometimes see him as a little bit opportunistic, a little more of a politician who sort of gives you packaged sound bytes. The question is whether, I think, John Kerry can make a more personal connection to voters in the next year. I thank his own people will tell you that is one of his big challenges.

HEMMING: Very interesting. We'll know by Christmas what Al Gore is going to do and a lot of the dominoes will fall into place after that. Lieberman and everyone else. Thank you, Jeff. It's almost that season.

GREENFIELD: Enjoy the true spirit of Christmas.

HEMMING: Will do. Thank you. Here's Daryn now.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired December 2, 2002 - 09:32   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Want to get now to the holiday scene right now, shopping in full frenzy. We've talked about that for the past week. The air right now is filled with the sounds of jingling cash registers and honking horns at the malls and a lot less parking, too.
The usual complaints of commercialization all season, but if you wish it would all just go away, our senior analyst, Jeff Greenfield, is here to tell you one thing, "Be careful what you wish for."

Is that so? Good morning.

JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SENIOR ANALYST: Well yes, I mean, 40 years ago the songwriter/satirist Tom Leer (ph) summed the feeling up, "Hark the "Herald Tribune" sings, advertising wondrous things, angels we have heard on high, tell us to go out and buy."

And, you know, anyone who's battles crowds and budgets and frostbite in the search for holiday stuff is likely to think, "Why can't we rediscover the true meaning of the season?" It is the theme of dozens of Christmas specials, sponsored of course by people who then want you to go out and buy stuff.

But just think for a minute. What would happen if we all discovered the spirit of the season and stopped buying? I'll tell what you would happen. Economic disaster. This year, Americans will likely spend about $200 billion on stuff, almost all of it within a little more than a month. Now, you take that money out of system, you have a recipe for economic train wreck. It would, for instance, just about wipe out toy business. We spend about $70 billion on toys, most of it right about now.

And how about the $100 billion a year we spend on computers and video games? What about those bottles of Christmas cheer, the California wine industry alone is a $6.5 billion business. And maybe your tastes are more refined, no wine pun intended, and your gift ideas run, say, to books. OK, without the holiday season, then the nearly $17.5 billion book business would just about collapse. And remember, no holiday sales, no sales tax receipts. Right now, the states face a total deficit of $40 billion. You take the money out from Christmas and you have a lot less money for schools and hospitals and roads and police, and there's one more item, us.

The commercial frenzy of the season means hundreds of millions of dollars to the nation's TV and radio stations, newspapers, magazines, so like it or not, and a lot of us don't, our economy is locked into the holiday giving and getting hysteria. So if the day ever comes when we all miraculously decide to celebrate only the spiritual side of the season and shun the commercialism, we might be a poorer but happier society. Of course, Bill, that might be a trade-off worth trying some day.

HEMMING: Two-hundred billion? Is that the figure?

GREENFIELD: That's the figure.

HEMMING: In this 26-day period?

GREENFIELD: Well, I mean, most of it. Some people are actually smart enough to buy in advance. But it's a concentrated shot and you add everything up. You're talking about holiday travel, hotels, airline tickets, everything, and it's about -- that's the estimate.

HEMMING: Let me flip your argument a second here because a lot of people think the spirit of giving is just that. Even though you spend money, even though it may be seen as commercialization, just fact you are going out and buying a gift says a lot about the person to whom you're giving it.

GREENFIELD: Well, there is something to it, but I'll tell you what, Bill. We're not that far from the big stores of New York, I suggest you go into any one of the stores about 4:00 in the afternoon, between now and Christmas, and see whether what you find is true holiday spirit or near-homicidal rage.

HEMMING: Listen, I hate to shop, OK? So that's the least of my priorities during the holiday season.

Quickly here, John Kerry over the weekend made a little bit of news -- going to talk politics for a moment here. Looks like he might be the first to throw his name in the hopper on the Democratic side.

GREENFIELD: Yes, he's announced an exploratory committee. One thing it tells you of course is the change in the calendar. I remember a time when people didn't even think of announcing for president until the calendar year of the presidency. Because of the front-loaded system and the way we raise money now, almost all the Democratic candidates in the race will have told us this by the end of this year, which is a year and 11 months before election day.

I think John Kerry, who is clearly a first-tier candidate, United States senator, he's going to take Bush on on international matters. I think he's come to the conclusion that you can't run against Bush simply by ignoring the world talking about domestic policy. I think one of his big questions comes down to a kind of personal question.

HEMMING: How so?

GREENFIELD: Well, people give Kerry big marks for intelligence and thoughtfulness, but they sometimes see him as a little bit opportunistic, a little more of a politician who sort of gives you packaged sound bytes. The question is whether, I think, John Kerry can make a more personal connection to voters in the next year. I thank his own people will tell you that is one of his big challenges.

HEMMING: Very interesting. We'll know by Christmas what Al Gore is going to do and a lot of the dominoes will fall into place after that. Lieberman and everyone else. Thank you, Jeff. It's almost that season.

GREENFIELD: Enjoy the true spirit of Christmas.

HEMMING: Will do. Thank you. Here's Daryn now.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com