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American Morning
Interview With Michael O'Hanlon
Aired December 03, 2002 - 07:16 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Suspicions that al Qaeda was behind the attacks on Israeli targets in Kenya now appear to be confirmed. U.S. officials say that an Internet message in which the group seems to claim responsibility is, indeed, credible.
The message also says that Osama bin Laden's followers are capable of reaching any place in the world.
With more on this, we're going to talk now with Michael O'Hanlon, senior fellow at The Brookings Institution. He is joining us from Washington this morning.
Michael, good morning -- thanks for being with us.
MICHAEL O'HANLON, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: Nice to be with you, Daryn.
KAGAN: Any surprise from you that al Qaeda would claim responsibility for this attack in Kenya?
O'HANLON: Well, it's not a big surprise, but it's at least a small surprise in that al Qaeda, as you know, has not been targeting Israelis as its primary objective in recent months. And even though they are very anti-Israeli and anti-American as well, as we know, only better than we like, this has been a new tactic to go after Israeli targets and to go after Israeli targets in Kenya.
So, yes, it's a new development. Whether it's a big surprise or not can be debated.
KAGAN: Maybe not the claim of responsibility, but this shift in strategy, as you were talking about. I want to look at a quote from what was put up on the Internet and talk about that after we look at it here.
The statement that is attributed to al Qaeda: "At the same place where the Jewish Crusader Coalition was hit four years ago, here the fighters came back once again to strike heavily against that evil coalition."
This time, though, it was against the Jews, and obviously they are making reference to the attack on the U.S. Embassy in Kenya, some four years ago.
O'HANLON: Right. Well, we also know that bin Laden in his tape a month ago claimed credit for virtually everything that had been going on in the world by way of terrorism, even if al Qaeda didn't have the primary role -- for example, the hostage debacle in Moscow.
So, this maybe is, as you say, a new development in al Qaeda, and it may be, in a way, a sign of weakness that they have to take more credit than they would have bothered to in the past in order to rally their forces and remind their own followers that they have not lost complete cohesion due to the war in Afghanistan.
So, in that sense, you could look for a silver lining in this claim of responsibility. They're trying to trumpet and play up things they might not have bothered to before.
KAGAN: So, you're saying claim responsibility for something they might have had something to do with on the fringes?
O'HANLON: Yes, or maybe even if this was their entire doing, the fact they were so quick to claim responsibility was, in a way, a sign of weakness, because it meant they had to go out and talk up and brag about something that in previous months or years would have been a relatively minor accomplishment for them, and where they would not have needed that sort of rallying cry to their own minions, because they would have had this Afghanistan center and hub as the place where they sort of built up morale and built up enthusiasm.
This is sort of speculation, obviously, on my part, but I'm not sure it means anything other than al Qaeda has to boost its own morale a little bit, and this is the best thing they've been able to do in recent months, and perhaps that's what it all amounts to.
KAGAN: Well, let's take it to the next step then, and actually to the other side. What does this do to the U.S. war on terror, this information that al Qaeda or some group related to al Qaeda has been operating in Kenya? There's been information like this since the early to mid-'90s. So, does this change anything in the attack on war on terror?
O'HANLON: I would tend to say not very much, because we already know that there are these offshoots and networks and tentacles of al Qaeda throughout the world. Of course, we saw this in Indonesia in the most tragic attack of the fall in terms of death toll, with J. I. (ph), the group out there.
We've known that East Africa is a hub for activity for quite some time. Maybe this suggests a little greater cause for concern, and certainly the presence of the SA-7 missile in that part of the world suggests they have arms caches perhaps and other kinds of assets that we didn't previously recognize.
So, yes, there are some tactical changes we're going to have to make. At the margin, there is some new information here. But basically, we knew that East Africa was one of their three or four big geographic focal points in the entire world already.
KAGAN: Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution, thanks for your insight today. I appreciate it.
O'HANLON: My pleasure.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
Aired December 3, 2002 - 07:16 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Suspicions that al Qaeda was behind the attacks on Israeli targets in Kenya now appear to be confirmed. U.S. officials say that an Internet message in which the group seems to claim responsibility is, indeed, credible.
The message also says that Osama bin Laden's followers are capable of reaching any place in the world.
With more on this, we're going to talk now with Michael O'Hanlon, senior fellow at The Brookings Institution. He is joining us from Washington this morning.
Michael, good morning -- thanks for being with us.
MICHAEL O'HANLON, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: Nice to be with you, Daryn.
KAGAN: Any surprise from you that al Qaeda would claim responsibility for this attack in Kenya?
O'HANLON: Well, it's not a big surprise, but it's at least a small surprise in that al Qaeda, as you know, has not been targeting Israelis as its primary objective in recent months. And even though they are very anti-Israeli and anti-American as well, as we know, only better than we like, this has been a new tactic to go after Israeli targets and to go after Israeli targets in Kenya.
So, yes, it's a new development. Whether it's a big surprise or not can be debated.
KAGAN: Maybe not the claim of responsibility, but this shift in strategy, as you were talking about. I want to look at a quote from what was put up on the Internet and talk about that after we look at it here.
The statement that is attributed to al Qaeda: "At the same place where the Jewish Crusader Coalition was hit four years ago, here the fighters came back once again to strike heavily against that evil coalition."
This time, though, it was against the Jews, and obviously they are making reference to the attack on the U.S. Embassy in Kenya, some four years ago.
O'HANLON: Right. Well, we also know that bin Laden in his tape a month ago claimed credit for virtually everything that had been going on in the world by way of terrorism, even if al Qaeda didn't have the primary role -- for example, the hostage debacle in Moscow.
So, this maybe is, as you say, a new development in al Qaeda, and it may be, in a way, a sign of weakness that they have to take more credit than they would have bothered to in the past in order to rally their forces and remind their own followers that they have not lost complete cohesion due to the war in Afghanistan.
So, in that sense, you could look for a silver lining in this claim of responsibility. They're trying to trumpet and play up things they might not have bothered to before.
KAGAN: So, you're saying claim responsibility for something they might have had something to do with on the fringes?
O'HANLON: Yes, or maybe even if this was their entire doing, the fact they were so quick to claim responsibility was, in a way, a sign of weakness, because it meant they had to go out and talk up and brag about something that in previous months or years would have been a relatively minor accomplishment for them, and where they would not have needed that sort of rallying cry to their own minions, because they would have had this Afghanistan center and hub as the place where they sort of built up morale and built up enthusiasm.
This is sort of speculation, obviously, on my part, but I'm not sure it means anything other than al Qaeda has to boost its own morale a little bit, and this is the best thing they've been able to do in recent months, and perhaps that's what it all amounts to.
KAGAN: Well, let's take it to the next step then, and actually to the other side. What does this do to the U.S. war on terror, this information that al Qaeda or some group related to al Qaeda has been operating in Kenya? There's been information like this since the early to mid-'90s. So, does this change anything in the attack on war on terror?
O'HANLON: I would tend to say not very much, because we already know that there are these offshoots and networks and tentacles of al Qaeda throughout the world. Of course, we saw this in Indonesia in the most tragic attack of the fall in terms of death toll, with J. I. (ph), the group out there.
We've known that East Africa is a hub for activity for quite some time. Maybe this suggests a little greater cause for concern, and certainly the presence of the SA-7 missile in that part of the world suggests they have arms caches perhaps and other kinds of assets that we didn't previously recognize.
So, yes, there are some tactical changes we're going to have to make. At the margin, there is some new information here. But basically, we knew that East Africa was one of their three or four big geographic focal points in the entire world already.
KAGAN: Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution, thanks for your insight today. I appreciate it.
O'HANLON: My pleasure.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
