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American Morning
Discussion with Daniel Pinkston
Aired December 11, 2002 - 08:15 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: This morning, the U.S. is trying to solve that mystery surrounding the shipment of SCUD missiles seized off the coast of Yemen. A senior White House official saying the U.S. is 99 percent sure -- that's a quote -- 99 percent sure the ship left North Korea headed for Yemen.
What impact could this incident have on U.S. policy toward North Korea?
Daniel Pinkston is a Korean specialist at the Monterey Institute of International Studies. He's live this morning in Mountainview, California.
Daniel, good morning to you.
DANIEL PINKSTON, MONTEREY INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES: Good morning.
HEMMER: Help us out with the legalities or illegalities involved here. What's legal, what's illegal regarding this shipment?
PINKSTON: Well, I did a little review last night and one important point is, I understand it, is that the ship was not flagged. It was not carrying a flag. And all ships on the high seas have to carry a flag or be, represent a flag of some nation. And as I understand it, this ship was not flying under any flag. And so then it's open game and any nation can legally board or seize this ship. And that's as I understand the principles of this.
HEMMER: Tell us, Daniel, why would the U.S. be so concerned about this shipment of 15 or so SCUD missiles? What's the concern for you?
PINKSTON: Well, the U.S. has been concerned about North Korean missile exports for some time. Even though North Korea is not in violation of any treaty or arms control agreement or any international law, missiles are very destabilizing. North Korea has a number of clients or customers in the region and this is destabilizing for the region and other parts of the world.
HEMMER: What about destabilizing the relationship between Washington and Pyongyang even further than it is today? What do you see as long-term implications or even short-term implications? General Wesley Clark suggested that it's just a blip on the screen right now and nothing too significant, meaning, indicating there could be much more serious violations. Your thoughts on that or what? PINKSTON: Well, I am concerned, but we're going to go have to wait and see the response from Pyongyang. There are great divisions right now politically inside Pyongyang and we see conflicting signals. I think this might embolden or empower the hardliners who may feel it's impossible to reach any kind of negotiated settlement with the U.S. And we have to think about the linkages to the nuclear issue.
North Korea is in violation of their non-proliferation commitments in the nuclear area and they could completely withdraw and restart their nuclear program. And this would be a great concern.
HEMMER: Do you see a domino effect here? Do you see a smaller issue leading to a much greater issue down the road and perhaps this could be the impetus for that? Or is it much too early to say?
PINKSTON: It's too early to say. We'll have to see the response. North Korea may just write this off as a loss in doing business. Or we could see a response of them responding saying it's an act of war. So we will just have to wait and see what the response is. And this can also have a response in South Korea, as well. There's a presidential election next week and the two candidates differ greatly in their approach towards North Korea. And this could have an effect on the electorate there, as well.
HEMMER: There are some Korean experts and U.S. military experts who believe that country, North Korea, is tone deaf to the rest of the world. Do you hear it the same way?
PINKSTON: It depends on, I don't think North Korea is this monolithic entity. There are different voices, different interest groups. There are military leaders that have a vested interest in this missile program and maintaining exports. They have a lot of resources allocated to this program. And on the other hand you have reformers and officials that are interested in economic reforms and opening the economy.
So I think there are great cleavages there and who ultimately wins out in this internal debate, we'll have to wait and see.
HEMMER: Daniel, here's an issue for you. Reuters News Agency reporting right now, and I'll read it off the computer, they're saying that Yemen is saying that the missiles were bound for its country, bound for the Yemen Army and once those missiles return, again, from Reuters just a few moments ago, let me get more here, Yemen summons the U.S. envoy over the seizure of North Korean SCUD ship. Apparently wants to talk to them in that country. Again, attributed to Reuters News Agency.
What do you make of that, Daniel? Anything?
PINKSTON: We'll have to see what the ultimate outcome of these missiles in the cargo. I'm really not sure on the legalities of that.
HEMMER: So you can't say whether or not Yemen has a fair and right claim to these missiles at this point? PINKSTON: I don't know. I'm not an expert on the international law of the sea and on that cargo, what will happen with that cargo. But I do know they have not violated any international law or arms control agreements. So legally I think they can make a strong claim that they have a right to purchase those missiles.
HEMMER: Not a pop quiz here. I didn't mean to put you on the spot so much there. But, again, the news just crossing on the urgent wires here.
Daniel Pinkston again in California.
Thanks for your time, Daniel. Appreciate it.
PINKSTON: My pleasure.
HEMMER: All right, again, Reuters News Agency reporting again the Yemenese government now saying that those SCUD missiles bound for its army and we'll continue to follow that as we get more developments, again, just crossed in a few moments ago.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired December 11, 2002 - 08:15 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: This morning, the U.S. is trying to solve that mystery surrounding the shipment of SCUD missiles seized off the coast of Yemen. A senior White House official saying the U.S. is 99 percent sure -- that's a quote -- 99 percent sure the ship left North Korea headed for Yemen.
What impact could this incident have on U.S. policy toward North Korea?
Daniel Pinkston is a Korean specialist at the Monterey Institute of International Studies. He's live this morning in Mountainview, California.
Daniel, good morning to you.
DANIEL PINKSTON, MONTEREY INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES: Good morning.
HEMMER: Help us out with the legalities or illegalities involved here. What's legal, what's illegal regarding this shipment?
PINKSTON: Well, I did a little review last night and one important point is, I understand it, is that the ship was not flagged. It was not carrying a flag. And all ships on the high seas have to carry a flag or be, represent a flag of some nation. And as I understand it, this ship was not flying under any flag. And so then it's open game and any nation can legally board or seize this ship. And that's as I understand the principles of this.
HEMMER: Tell us, Daniel, why would the U.S. be so concerned about this shipment of 15 or so SCUD missiles? What's the concern for you?
PINKSTON: Well, the U.S. has been concerned about North Korean missile exports for some time. Even though North Korea is not in violation of any treaty or arms control agreement or any international law, missiles are very destabilizing. North Korea has a number of clients or customers in the region and this is destabilizing for the region and other parts of the world.
HEMMER: What about destabilizing the relationship between Washington and Pyongyang even further than it is today? What do you see as long-term implications or even short-term implications? General Wesley Clark suggested that it's just a blip on the screen right now and nothing too significant, meaning, indicating there could be much more serious violations. Your thoughts on that or what? PINKSTON: Well, I am concerned, but we're going to go have to wait and see the response from Pyongyang. There are great divisions right now politically inside Pyongyang and we see conflicting signals. I think this might embolden or empower the hardliners who may feel it's impossible to reach any kind of negotiated settlement with the U.S. And we have to think about the linkages to the nuclear issue.
North Korea is in violation of their non-proliferation commitments in the nuclear area and they could completely withdraw and restart their nuclear program. And this would be a great concern.
HEMMER: Do you see a domino effect here? Do you see a smaller issue leading to a much greater issue down the road and perhaps this could be the impetus for that? Or is it much too early to say?
PINKSTON: It's too early to say. We'll have to see the response. North Korea may just write this off as a loss in doing business. Or we could see a response of them responding saying it's an act of war. So we will just have to wait and see what the response is. And this can also have a response in South Korea, as well. There's a presidential election next week and the two candidates differ greatly in their approach towards North Korea. And this could have an effect on the electorate there, as well.
HEMMER: There are some Korean experts and U.S. military experts who believe that country, North Korea, is tone deaf to the rest of the world. Do you hear it the same way?
PINKSTON: It depends on, I don't think North Korea is this monolithic entity. There are different voices, different interest groups. There are military leaders that have a vested interest in this missile program and maintaining exports. They have a lot of resources allocated to this program. And on the other hand you have reformers and officials that are interested in economic reforms and opening the economy.
So I think there are great cleavages there and who ultimately wins out in this internal debate, we'll have to wait and see.
HEMMER: Daniel, here's an issue for you. Reuters News Agency reporting right now, and I'll read it off the computer, they're saying that Yemen is saying that the missiles were bound for its country, bound for the Yemen Army and once those missiles return, again, from Reuters just a few moments ago, let me get more here, Yemen summons the U.S. envoy over the seizure of North Korean SCUD ship. Apparently wants to talk to them in that country. Again, attributed to Reuters News Agency.
What do you make of that, Daniel? Anything?
PINKSTON: We'll have to see what the ultimate outcome of these missiles in the cargo. I'm really not sure on the legalities of that.
HEMMER: So you can't say whether or not Yemen has a fair and right claim to these missiles at this point? PINKSTON: I don't know. I'm not an expert on the international law of the sea and on that cargo, what will happen with that cargo. But I do know they have not violated any international law or arms control agreements. So legally I think they can make a strong claim that they have a right to purchase those missiles.
HEMMER: Not a pop quiz here. I didn't mean to put you on the spot so much there. But, again, the news just crossing on the urgent wires here.
Daniel Pinkston again in California.
Thanks for your time, Daniel. Appreciate it.
PINKSTON: My pleasure.
HEMMER: All right, again, Reuters News Agency reporting again the Yemenese government now saying that those SCUD missiles bound for its army and we'll continue to follow that as we get more developments, again, just crossed in a few moments ago.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
