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American Morning

Joseph Cirincione on Nuclear Stakes

Aired December 13, 2002 - 07:11   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: More now on Iraq; also Iran and North Korea, two of the president's axis of evil nations. They are raising the nuclear stakes. It appears the U.S. has some problems that could be even bigger beyond Iraq.
Joseph Cirincione is author of "Deadly Arsenals." He is also director of the Nonproliferation Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Joe, good morning -- thanks for joining us.

JOSEPH CIRINCIONE, AUTHOR, "DEADLY ARSENALS": Good morning -- my pleasure.

KAGAN: First, I want to start with Iraq and this report, 12,000 pages, lots of quantity, doesn't sound like a lot of quality. We're hearing there is so much missing. One official from the Bush administration is saying you could drive a truck through the holes in this report.

CIRINCIONE: It does look like a lot of the documents that have been submitted are rehashes of previous documents, in some cases word for word what Iraq had submitted during the 1990s. We still have another week or so to analyze these documents before we'll have a complete report, but it doesn't appear to be the full and complete declaration that Iraq was supposed to provide.

KAGAN: If that wasn't scary enough, meanwhile you have North Korea coming out and saying it's going to start -- restart its nuclear reactor that in a previous agreement said that it wouldn't. But pointing fingers at the U.S., saying it's your fault that we have to do this.

CIRINCIONE: Yes, we may literally have to go to a split screen here on your countdown logo. This Korean crisis could get very serious very quickly.

What's basically going on is that North Korea is starting to de- freeze its previously-frozen nuclear program. The Clinton administration had struck a deal with North Korea in 1994, and they froze their reactors, were not operating them. They're now taking the first element of that nuclear weapons production capability and unfreezing it, saying they will start the reactors. They could actually start operating as soon as two months from now.

KAGAN: And in terms of finger pointing, saying to the U.S., it's your fault, because you're not giving us oil. We have to do it just to heat our own people. Is that a legitimate argument, or is this just a big threat to try to get the U.S. at a bargaining table?

CIRINCIONE: Well, what is legitimate is that the overall process for discussing all of these issues with North Korea has broken down. The Clinton administration had one framework. The Bush administration didn't want to talk to North Korea. North Korea is trying to get the U.S. to negotiate. In their own perverse way of doing things, they think by raising this threat, by escalating the crisis, this will bring the United States to the bargaining table. The U.S. doesn't want to come. So, that's why this crisis is going to get worse before it gets better.

KAGAN: But are you suggesting that the Bush administration should give in to blackmail like this?

CIRINCIONE: I think the administration should cut a deal with North Korea. They had a deal on the table. We were very close to resolving the North Korean problem, both in missiles and in nuclear weapons. If the administration had talked to North Korea two years ago, it's very likely that there would not be a nuclear program to restart at this point.

We can literally buy the North Korean nuclear and missile program. We've just got to negotiate a price.

KAGAN: I could talk to you an hour just about that, but I need to complete this axis of evil list.

CIRINCIONE: Sure, yes.

KAGAN: Iran, coming to find out, CNN has learned, constructing nuclear sites of its own, building this facility that can create heavy water.

CIRINCIONE: Yes, these were...

KAGAN: What's the concern there?

CIRINCIONE: ... previously unknown sites, at least to most analysts, and CNN's report is really breaking new ground here. The proper thing to do at this point is to get the IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency, board of governors to demand an inspection of these sites, put inspectors on the ground, take a look at these to find out what's going on. That's why we have these mechanisms set up, so we don't have to rely on guesswork or allegations. We can actually bring inspectors to the spot and determine what's going on.

KAGAN: Joseph Cirincione, so many places to keep a watch on. Thanks for...

(CROSSTALK)

CIRINCIONE: We're hitting the WMD trifecta today, I think.

KAGAN: Yes, absolutely. Thank you.

CIRINCIONE: Thank you. TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.







Aired December 13, 2002 - 07:11   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: More now on Iraq; also Iran and North Korea, two of the president's axis of evil nations. They are raising the nuclear stakes. It appears the U.S. has some problems that could be even bigger beyond Iraq.
Joseph Cirincione is author of "Deadly Arsenals." He is also director of the Nonproliferation Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Joe, good morning -- thanks for joining us.

JOSEPH CIRINCIONE, AUTHOR, "DEADLY ARSENALS": Good morning -- my pleasure.

KAGAN: First, I want to start with Iraq and this report, 12,000 pages, lots of quantity, doesn't sound like a lot of quality. We're hearing there is so much missing. One official from the Bush administration is saying you could drive a truck through the holes in this report.

CIRINCIONE: It does look like a lot of the documents that have been submitted are rehashes of previous documents, in some cases word for word what Iraq had submitted during the 1990s. We still have another week or so to analyze these documents before we'll have a complete report, but it doesn't appear to be the full and complete declaration that Iraq was supposed to provide.

KAGAN: If that wasn't scary enough, meanwhile you have North Korea coming out and saying it's going to start -- restart its nuclear reactor that in a previous agreement said that it wouldn't. But pointing fingers at the U.S., saying it's your fault that we have to do this.

CIRINCIONE: Yes, we may literally have to go to a split screen here on your countdown logo. This Korean crisis could get very serious very quickly.

What's basically going on is that North Korea is starting to de- freeze its previously-frozen nuclear program. The Clinton administration had struck a deal with North Korea in 1994, and they froze their reactors, were not operating them. They're now taking the first element of that nuclear weapons production capability and unfreezing it, saying they will start the reactors. They could actually start operating as soon as two months from now.

KAGAN: And in terms of finger pointing, saying to the U.S., it's your fault, because you're not giving us oil. We have to do it just to heat our own people. Is that a legitimate argument, or is this just a big threat to try to get the U.S. at a bargaining table?

CIRINCIONE: Well, what is legitimate is that the overall process for discussing all of these issues with North Korea has broken down. The Clinton administration had one framework. The Bush administration didn't want to talk to North Korea. North Korea is trying to get the U.S. to negotiate. In their own perverse way of doing things, they think by raising this threat, by escalating the crisis, this will bring the United States to the bargaining table. The U.S. doesn't want to come. So, that's why this crisis is going to get worse before it gets better.

KAGAN: But are you suggesting that the Bush administration should give in to blackmail like this?

CIRINCIONE: I think the administration should cut a deal with North Korea. They had a deal on the table. We were very close to resolving the North Korean problem, both in missiles and in nuclear weapons. If the administration had talked to North Korea two years ago, it's very likely that there would not be a nuclear program to restart at this point.

We can literally buy the North Korean nuclear and missile program. We've just got to negotiate a price.

KAGAN: I could talk to you an hour just about that, but I need to complete this axis of evil list.

CIRINCIONE: Sure, yes.

KAGAN: Iran, coming to find out, CNN has learned, constructing nuclear sites of its own, building this facility that can create heavy water.

CIRINCIONE: Yes, these were...

KAGAN: What's the concern there?

CIRINCIONE: ... previously unknown sites, at least to most analysts, and CNN's report is really breaking new ground here. The proper thing to do at this point is to get the IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency, board of governors to demand an inspection of these sites, put inspectors on the ground, take a look at these to find out what's going on. That's why we have these mechanisms set up, so we don't have to rely on guesswork or allegations. We can actually bring inspectors to the spot and determine what's going on.

KAGAN: Joseph Cirincione, so many places to keep a watch on. Thanks for...

(CROSSTALK)

CIRINCIONE: We're hitting the WMD trifecta today, I think.

KAGAN: Yes, absolutely. Thank you.

CIRINCIONE: Thank you. TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.