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American Morning

Interview With Mansoor Ijaz

Aired December 30, 2002 - 07:08   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: We're going to turn now to the nuclear problem posed by North Korea. Secretary of State Colin Powell described the situation as "serious," but wouldn't use the words, "a crisis." Sunday on CNN's "LATE EDITION," Powell said the U.S. is determined to find a diplomatic solution.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

COLIN POWELL, SECRETARY OF STATE: What's rather interesting over the last several days is everybody is wondering, why isn't the United States reaching for a gun? And the answer is, we believe that there are still options available to us that focus on political and diplomatic tools that the international community can bring to bear in this problem.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ZAHN: Still, is there cause for alarm on North Korea's behavior? Mansoor Ijaz has been monitoring this situation. He's an analyst focusing on foreign policy and nuclear proliferation issues.

Nice to see you in person for a change -- welcome.

MANSOOR IJAZ, FOREIGN-POLICY ANALYST: Good morning. Thank you.

ZAHN: So, the secretary of state is not calling it a crisis. And yet, you had people like Senator Biden and then Senator Lugar yesterday making it abundantly clear they view this as a crisis. Is it?

IJAZ: I don't think it's the crisis that requires military intervention yet. The problem that we have in North Korea is not the restarting of the existing nuclear reactor at Yongbyon. What we're worried about there is that they can start it up, it will take them three or four months to be able to reprocess plutonium out of the uranium rods that they're putting in right now.

The real problem that we have in North Korea is an enrichment facility which we have called their bluff on, but we don't know exactly where it is. And that enrichment facility produces enriched uranium for long-term use, which could then be loaded onto these missiles, which they are very good at making, and that then poses a real threat to every city in the region, from Beijing to Shanghai to Osaka to Tokyo to Seoul, South Korea.

That is the real problem that we're facing right now, and that is why we need the help of our ally in the war on terror, Pakistan, because Pakistan allegedly assisted them in building that enrichment facility. China is providing the ring magnets to be able to keep that enrichment facility going. And that is why we now need to use diplomatic pressure on our allies -- China and Pakistan -- to try and bring pressure to bear to make them stop using these enrichment facilities that they have opened.

ZAHN: So, in addition to this diplomatic pressure you're talking about, the administration believes that sort of an isolationist policy ultimately will work with North Korea. Will it?

IJAZ: It will not work economically, because there's nothing left to destroy. The economy doesn't exist in that country. The problem is that until you can find a way to either call their bluff on where exactly they've got all of this stuff -- one of the reasons we can't use military action is because you can't destroy every missile silo along with the nuclear facilities. In other words, the game is that if you destroy their nuclear facilities, they'll launch missiles with conventional warheads on them immediately. And that is why military action is not really the solution.

However, it could be very clear, and we would succeed greatly, if we were able to stop them, for example, in bringing the chemicals in that would assist them in separating the plutonium out of the uranium -- things like that. Instead of economic isolation, what we should be doing is stopping people who have access to those chemicals and other things that they need to run their enrichment facilities, to run their nuclear reactors, to stop that from getting into the country -- uranium rods, things of that nature.

ZAHN: I wanted to throw out something "The Wall Street Journal" wrote about in an editorial today, suggesting that a strategy of isolation and containment makes more sense against impoverished North Korea than it does against oil-rich Iraq. Starved of outside money and fuel, the Kim regime might well crack.

IJAZ: That's correct.

ZAHN: Do you really believe it will crack? I mean, it's shown no signs yet of giving in at all.

IJAZ: It's a matter of calling his bluff. In other words, what he is doing is he's posturing and showing a face that says, I'm big enough and strong enough to take you guys on, because I've got my missiles under my control. What we have to do is find a way to take that missile capability away from him, and the way you do that is to ensure that he doesn't have the material that he can load on top of those warheads to really cause the threat in that part of the world.

The other thing, by the way, that can happen that would be very important here, if Japan were to let it be known in the local area -- with China, with North Korea and so forth -- that if you guys are going to threaten us this way, we're going to go nuclear as well, I can tell you China will sit down on North Korea the next day and say, enough is enough here. We do not need Japanese technology aimed at us.

ZAHN: We've got 10 seconds left. How long is it going to take to play out?

IJAZ: I think it takes no more than two months for this to play out with keeping them from getting the processing facility up and running.

ZAHN: Mansoor Ijaz, nice to have you drop by in person.

IJAZ: Thank you for having me.

ZAHN: Appreciate your perspective.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.







Aired December 30, 2002 - 07:08   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: We're going to turn now to the nuclear problem posed by North Korea. Secretary of State Colin Powell described the situation as "serious," but wouldn't use the words, "a crisis." Sunday on CNN's "LATE EDITION," Powell said the U.S. is determined to find a diplomatic solution.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

COLIN POWELL, SECRETARY OF STATE: What's rather interesting over the last several days is everybody is wondering, why isn't the United States reaching for a gun? And the answer is, we believe that there are still options available to us that focus on political and diplomatic tools that the international community can bring to bear in this problem.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ZAHN: Still, is there cause for alarm on North Korea's behavior? Mansoor Ijaz has been monitoring this situation. He's an analyst focusing on foreign policy and nuclear proliferation issues.

Nice to see you in person for a change -- welcome.

MANSOOR IJAZ, FOREIGN-POLICY ANALYST: Good morning. Thank you.

ZAHN: So, the secretary of state is not calling it a crisis. And yet, you had people like Senator Biden and then Senator Lugar yesterday making it abundantly clear they view this as a crisis. Is it?

IJAZ: I don't think it's the crisis that requires military intervention yet. The problem that we have in North Korea is not the restarting of the existing nuclear reactor at Yongbyon. What we're worried about there is that they can start it up, it will take them three or four months to be able to reprocess plutonium out of the uranium rods that they're putting in right now.

The real problem that we have in North Korea is an enrichment facility which we have called their bluff on, but we don't know exactly where it is. And that enrichment facility produces enriched uranium for long-term use, which could then be loaded onto these missiles, which they are very good at making, and that then poses a real threat to every city in the region, from Beijing to Shanghai to Osaka to Tokyo to Seoul, South Korea.

That is the real problem that we're facing right now, and that is why we need the help of our ally in the war on terror, Pakistan, because Pakistan allegedly assisted them in building that enrichment facility. China is providing the ring magnets to be able to keep that enrichment facility going. And that is why we now need to use diplomatic pressure on our allies -- China and Pakistan -- to try and bring pressure to bear to make them stop using these enrichment facilities that they have opened.

ZAHN: So, in addition to this diplomatic pressure you're talking about, the administration believes that sort of an isolationist policy ultimately will work with North Korea. Will it?

IJAZ: It will not work economically, because there's nothing left to destroy. The economy doesn't exist in that country. The problem is that until you can find a way to either call their bluff on where exactly they've got all of this stuff -- one of the reasons we can't use military action is because you can't destroy every missile silo along with the nuclear facilities. In other words, the game is that if you destroy their nuclear facilities, they'll launch missiles with conventional warheads on them immediately. And that is why military action is not really the solution.

However, it could be very clear, and we would succeed greatly, if we were able to stop them, for example, in bringing the chemicals in that would assist them in separating the plutonium out of the uranium -- things like that. Instead of economic isolation, what we should be doing is stopping people who have access to those chemicals and other things that they need to run their enrichment facilities, to run their nuclear reactors, to stop that from getting into the country -- uranium rods, things of that nature.

ZAHN: I wanted to throw out something "The Wall Street Journal" wrote about in an editorial today, suggesting that a strategy of isolation and containment makes more sense against impoverished North Korea than it does against oil-rich Iraq. Starved of outside money and fuel, the Kim regime might well crack.

IJAZ: That's correct.

ZAHN: Do you really believe it will crack? I mean, it's shown no signs yet of giving in at all.

IJAZ: It's a matter of calling his bluff. In other words, what he is doing is he's posturing and showing a face that says, I'm big enough and strong enough to take you guys on, because I've got my missiles under my control. What we have to do is find a way to take that missile capability away from him, and the way you do that is to ensure that he doesn't have the material that he can load on top of those warheads to really cause the threat in that part of the world.

The other thing, by the way, that can happen that would be very important here, if Japan were to let it be known in the local area -- with China, with North Korea and so forth -- that if you guys are going to threaten us this way, we're going to go nuclear as well, I can tell you China will sit down on North Korea the next day and say, enough is enough here. We do not need Japanese technology aimed at us.

ZAHN: We've got 10 seconds left. How long is it going to take to play out?

IJAZ: I think it takes no more than two months for this to play out with keeping them from getting the processing facility up and running.

ZAHN: Mansoor Ijaz, nice to have you drop by in person.

IJAZ: Thank you for having me.

ZAHN: Appreciate your perspective.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.