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American Morning

If Diplomacy Fails, How Dangerous Will North Korea Be?

Aired January 13, 2003 - 08:18   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Washington says a solution to the North Korea stand-off could be found through diplomacy. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly is in South Korea to try to defuse the stalemate. But if diplomacy fails, how dangerous will North Korea be?
Joining me now to discuss all that is military analyst, Retired Air Force Major General Donald Shepperd, who joins us from Tucson, Arizona.

It's early there.

Good morning, General.

MAJ. GEN. DON SHEPPERD (RET.), U.S. AIR FORCE, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Good morning, Paula.

ZAHN: Let's start off with what Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly is saying. Basically we are told that he has told the North Koreans if they back down from their nuclear weapons program development there could be an energy deal in the works. Does that make sense to you?

SHEPPERD: Yes, it makes a lot of sense, Paula. We're trying to seek a diplomatic solution from this, something that could develop into a very ugly military situation if we don't deescalate the rhetoric and get an agreement.

Now, what comes out of this agreement is going to be interesting, because what we don't know is what it is that North Korea really wants. Do they really want energy? Do they want the assurance that their regime is going to be maintained? Or do they just want to have nuclear weapons to exercise power? And we're at the early stages. I don't think we know the answers to those important questions yet, Paula.

ZAHN: If the U.S. decided to cut some sort of energy deal, is that succumbing to nuclear blackmail?

SHEPPERD: Well, some would say it is. Some would say it isn't. But clearly it's a better solution than going to war. What we've got to do through diplomacy is assure that this does not become a repeating cycle of North Korea walking away from agreements it has made down the line and demanding something else, more and more brinkmanship that brings us closer and closer to a military confrontation, as they develop, have time to develop more nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them, Paula. ZAHN: We're going to put on the screen now, General, a list of North Korea's current missile capabilities. And then we're going to after that give our audience an idea of what North Korea could be capable of down the road, and we will show what they are developing. And as we look at these numbers, I want you to comment on the statistic by the year 2015 that North Korea could be capable of launching a nuclear weapon with enough range to hit any location in the United States.

SHEPPERD: Yes, that's very scary with a nation that has the track record of doing what North Korea is doing right now, which is very unpredictable and very bizarre. What they have the capability to do right now with their SCUDs and their nodong (ph) missile is basically hit mainly South Korea and parts of Japan. By 2015, they'll have the capability to hit with three different missiles all of the United States, earlier than that, even, Alaska and Hawaii. And, more importantly, will have the ability and time to sell both the weapons and the means of delivery to other nations that we wouldn't want to have these.

It's a dangerous situation and hopefully we can negotiate our way out of this.

ZAHN: But if you can't negotiate your way out of it, what kind of military action would be considered?

SHEPPERD: Ugly military action. And the reason it's so ugly is Korea, North Korea has a very large army, a million men stationed very close to the DMZ. Another three million reserves. The Korean capital, Seoul, 30 to 50 miles south of the DMZ. So whatever happens, Seoul would be greatly affected. They're within artillery range right now of the North Korean Army.

So if you go to combat in North Korea, it's the ugliest of ugly with a lot of bad things happening to the capital, the people of South Korea, U.S. troops there and, of course, the outcome is not in doubt, but it would be ugly getting there.

ZAHN: Sir, we've just 15 seconds left. I want you to talk about the latest troop deployment. I guess it now brings the number up to 120,000 at the same time the IAEA is saying hey, we need a year to conduct these inspections.

SHEPPERD: Yes, it's hard to follow these troop numbers. But clearly by the middle of February, we're going to have close to 150,000 troops there. Whether they're ready to kick off or not, I don't know. But the 27th is when Hans Blix issues his report. They are already asking for more time and it's going to be very difficult to decide between diplomacy and keeping troops there for the better part of a year till the following year or whether to kick off action. And we're going to have to create legitimacy for the American people and the world community.

This is tough diplomacy, again, Paula.

ZAHN: Major General Donald Shepperd, always good to have you on the air. Always appreciate your insights.

Have a good day.

SHEPPERD: Thank you.

ZAHN: Maybe you can go back and catch a little cat nap.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired January 13, 2003 - 08:18   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Washington says a solution to the North Korea stand-off could be found through diplomacy. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly is in South Korea to try to defuse the stalemate. But if diplomacy fails, how dangerous will North Korea be?
Joining me now to discuss all that is military analyst, Retired Air Force Major General Donald Shepperd, who joins us from Tucson, Arizona.

It's early there.

Good morning, General.

MAJ. GEN. DON SHEPPERD (RET.), U.S. AIR FORCE, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Good morning, Paula.

ZAHN: Let's start off with what Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly is saying. Basically we are told that he has told the North Koreans if they back down from their nuclear weapons program development there could be an energy deal in the works. Does that make sense to you?

SHEPPERD: Yes, it makes a lot of sense, Paula. We're trying to seek a diplomatic solution from this, something that could develop into a very ugly military situation if we don't deescalate the rhetoric and get an agreement.

Now, what comes out of this agreement is going to be interesting, because what we don't know is what it is that North Korea really wants. Do they really want energy? Do they want the assurance that their regime is going to be maintained? Or do they just want to have nuclear weapons to exercise power? And we're at the early stages. I don't think we know the answers to those important questions yet, Paula.

ZAHN: If the U.S. decided to cut some sort of energy deal, is that succumbing to nuclear blackmail?

SHEPPERD: Well, some would say it is. Some would say it isn't. But clearly it's a better solution than going to war. What we've got to do through diplomacy is assure that this does not become a repeating cycle of North Korea walking away from agreements it has made down the line and demanding something else, more and more brinkmanship that brings us closer and closer to a military confrontation, as they develop, have time to develop more nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them, Paula. ZAHN: We're going to put on the screen now, General, a list of North Korea's current missile capabilities. And then we're going to after that give our audience an idea of what North Korea could be capable of down the road, and we will show what they are developing. And as we look at these numbers, I want you to comment on the statistic by the year 2015 that North Korea could be capable of launching a nuclear weapon with enough range to hit any location in the United States.

SHEPPERD: Yes, that's very scary with a nation that has the track record of doing what North Korea is doing right now, which is very unpredictable and very bizarre. What they have the capability to do right now with their SCUDs and their nodong (ph) missile is basically hit mainly South Korea and parts of Japan. By 2015, they'll have the capability to hit with three different missiles all of the United States, earlier than that, even, Alaska and Hawaii. And, more importantly, will have the ability and time to sell both the weapons and the means of delivery to other nations that we wouldn't want to have these.

It's a dangerous situation and hopefully we can negotiate our way out of this.

ZAHN: But if you can't negotiate your way out of it, what kind of military action would be considered?

SHEPPERD: Ugly military action. And the reason it's so ugly is Korea, North Korea has a very large army, a million men stationed very close to the DMZ. Another three million reserves. The Korean capital, Seoul, 30 to 50 miles south of the DMZ. So whatever happens, Seoul would be greatly affected. They're within artillery range right now of the North Korean Army.

So if you go to combat in North Korea, it's the ugliest of ugly with a lot of bad things happening to the capital, the people of South Korea, U.S. troops there and, of course, the outcome is not in doubt, but it would be ugly getting there.

ZAHN: Sir, we've just 15 seconds left. I want you to talk about the latest troop deployment. I guess it now brings the number up to 120,000 at the same time the IAEA is saying hey, we need a year to conduct these inspections.

SHEPPERD: Yes, it's hard to follow these troop numbers. But clearly by the middle of February, we're going to have close to 150,000 troops there. Whether they're ready to kick off or not, I don't know. But the 27th is when Hans Blix issues his report. They are already asking for more time and it's going to be very difficult to decide between diplomacy and keeping troops there for the better part of a year till the following year or whether to kick off action. And we're going to have to create legitimacy for the American people and the world community.

This is tough diplomacy, again, Paula.

ZAHN: Major General Donald Shepperd, always good to have you on the air. Always appreciate your insights.

Have a good day.

SHEPPERD: Thank you.

ZAHN: Maybe you can go back and catch a little cat nap.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com