Return to Transcripts main page

American Morning

What is Story Behind President's Latest Poll Numbers?

Aired January 15, 2003 - 07:33   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: What is the story behind the president's latest poll numbers? Well, according to the "USA Today"/CNN/Gallup poll, 58 percent approve of his overall performance. That is a five percent drop since last week and it is the lowest approval rating for Mr. Bush since 9/11 of 2001.
Joining us to crunch the numbers, Democratic consultant Victor Kamber, who joins us from Miami this morning, and Republican pollster Matthew Dowd joins us from Grand Rapids, Michigan.

Good morning to both of you.

Welcome.

VICTOR KAMBER, DEMOCRATIC CONSULTANT: Good morning, Paula.

ZAHN: Let's start off by looking at some of the numbers, gentlemen.

Mr. Bush has a 63 percent approval rating on national defense. That drops to 49 percent on taxes, 48 percent on the economy. Now, on the question of how much attention the president is paying to the economy, 41 percent said the right amount, but 55 percent said not enough.

Matthew, you no doubt know where the Democrats are going to be coming at the president from. What can the president do to raise these numbers, or at least convince the American public that his new stimulus plan will help them out?

MATTHEW DOWD, RNC POLLSTER: Well, I think it's important to put the numbers in perspective. Fifty-eight percent is a presidential number that any president heading into the possible reelection would love to have. I mean it's not 90, but it's not 30 or 35 that some presidents have been at at this point. So I think it's important to sort of understand that.

Ronald Reagan had a 58 percent job approval when he won a landslide. So I think...

ZAHN: But come back to the number, though, as it relates to the economy and any vulnerability you see there.

DOWD: Well, obviously the president wants to stimulate the economy and create jobs and do things to move the economy on. Obviously he wants to do that. But I think he, the president has never had a negative rating on the economy overall. It's not as high as we'd like it to be, but it's never been negative and there have been other presidents, his father for one, that carried a negative rating on the economy in spite of all the popularity he had on Desert Storm.

So, yes, we want to do more and there's things that he wants to do to stimulate the economy. But you have to put it in perspective. It's not as bad as I think a lot of Democrats would want to make it seem.

ZAHN: Victor, do you want to grant him that one? I mean after all, President Bush's ratings right now are higher than President Clinton's approval ratings were two years into his presidency. You have to acknowledge that.

KAMBER: Yes, but the big difference, Paula, it's not about Democrats, Republicans. It's the trend that's there and it's the American public sending him a message. He's gone down over 30 points in 17 months. I don't care what spin you put on it, the trend is the wrong way if I was a Republican and if I was the president.

The American public likes him as a human being, that's pretty obvious. They think he's a nice man, a decent man, not a terribly curious man, obviously, but a decent man. But they're saying in terms of the economy, in terms of the direction of the country and I think, even if you look at the numbers, in terms of this potential war, they're not terribly comfortable. So I think that's the message they're sending. It's not disaster. I don't disagree. If this was the election month and he was 58 percent, they should feel very good.

But we're two years away from an election and again, I'll say, in 17 months he's dropped 32 percent in the polls.

ZAHN: Matthew, why?

DOWD: Well, it, it's hard to go up when you're at 90 percent. So I don't know if there's a trend other than the fact that you drop down. And it's something that we expected. And it's something that everybody that's looked at these numbers expected.

The unbelievable part of this is the fact that it took 17 months to get to 58 and he's still not back at the point he was to before, the previous president...

KAMBER: Which was 51.

DOWD: Which was 51. So he's seven points higher than he was when he started 17 months ago. I think the thing that's amazing about this is the fact that it lasted for 17 months, that he even got to 58, which is still a high point. I mean talk about trends...

KAMBER: I agree with you.

DOWD: OK.

ZAHN: All right... KAMBER: I totally agree, Matthew, that it's amazing he lasted this long given the way he's run the country, and I think the trend is going to show that he continues to drop. And I hope Republicans stay euphoric about 58 percent when it's 55 and 52 and then 45 percent.

ZAHN: Oh, Vic, but you don't know the numbers are going there.

Victor, analyze this number for us. The numbers are pretty high when it comes to the president's performance on defense, the war on terrorism. As you can see, these are much higher numbers. Fifty-nine percent say the president is devoting the right amount of attention to the war on terrorism. Only 25 percent think he's devoting too much attention.

How do you think a potential war with Iraq might affect these numbers, Victor?

KAMBER: Well, I think unless he, frankly, is able to show that -- I mean we all, let me start with, that Saddam Hussein is an evil force, an evil man, a bad man. We have a lot of bad men in the world, the North Korean president, the president in Cuba, etc. There's a whole bunch of 'em. But unless he can show that there's weapons of mass destruction out there, unless he can prove to our allies and to the American public, I think he's going to have some problems there.

Today we support the president. That's our normal feeling. And I don't care Republican or Democrat, partisanship aside, if you're going to go to war, if you're going to be in a problem, you want to be behind the president. But at some point when American lives are at stake and people are losing their lives, there'd better be a real reason for it.

ZAHN: Matthew Dowd, you get the final word this morning. You've got about 10 seconds to wrap it up.

DOWD: I just think fundamentally, whether it's the war or whether it's the economy, overall the public trust this president. They think he's honest and trustworthy and think he's a strong leader and think he has a vision. And that's why his numbers have stayed as high as they have stayed for so long.

So I think they fundamentally trust this president.

ZAHN: Victor Kamber, Matthew Dowd, thank you both for joining us this morning.

KAMBER: Thank you.

DOWD: Thanks, Paula.

ZAHN: Always glad to have the two of you on the air with us.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired January 15, 2003 - 07:33   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: What is the story behind the president's latest poll numbers? Well, according to the "USA Today"/CNN/Gallup poll, 58 percent approve of his overall performance. That is a five percent drop since last week and it is the lowest approval rating for Mr. Bush since 9/11 of 2001.
Joining us to crunch the numbers, Democratic consultant Victor Kamber, who joins us from Miami this morning, and Republican pollster Matthew Dowd joins us from Grand Rapids, Michigan.

Good morning to both of you.

Welcome.

VICTOR KAMBER, DEMOCRATIC CONSULTANT: Good morning, Paula.

ZAHN: Let's start off by looking at some of the numbers, gentlemen.

Mr. Bush has a 63 percent approval rating on national defense. That drops to 49 percent on taxes, 48 percent on the economy. Now, on the question of how much attention the president is paying to the economy, 41 percent said the right amount, but 55 percent said not enough.

Matthew, you no doubt know where the Democrats are going to be coming at the president from. What can the president do to raise these numbers, or at least convince the American public that his new stimulus plan will help them out?

MATTHEW DOWD, RNC POLLSTER: Well, I think it's important to put the numbers in perspective. Fifty-eight percent is a presidential number that any president heading into the possible reelection would love to have. I mean it's not 90, but it's not 30 or 35 that some presidents have been at at this point. So I think it's important to sort of understand that.

Ronald Reagan had a 58 percent job approval when he won a landslide. So I think...

ZAHN: But come back to the number, though, as it relates to the economy and any vulnerability you see there.

DOWD: Well, obviously the president wants to stimulate the economy and create jobs and do things to move the economy on. Obviously he wants to do that. But I think he, the president has never had a negative rating on the economy overall. It's not as high as we'd like it to be, but it's never been negative and there have been other presidents, his father for one, that carried a negative rating on the economy in spite of all the popularity he had on Desert Storm.

So, yes, we want to do more and there's things that he wants to do to stimulate the economy. But you have to put it in perspective. It's not as bad as I think a lot of Democrats would want to make it seem.

ZAHN: Victor, do you want to grant him that one? I mean after all, President Bush's ratings right now are higher than President Clinton's approval ratings were two years into his presidency. You have to acknowledge that.

KAMBER: Yes, but the big difference, Paula, it's not about Democrats, Republicans. It's the trend that's there and it's the American public sending him a message. He's gone down over 30 points in 17 months. I don't care what spin you put on it, the trend is the wrong way if I was a Republican and if I was the president.

The American public likes him as a human being, that's pretty obvious. They think he's a nice man, a decent man, not a terribly curious man, obviously, but a decent man. But they're saying in terms of the economy, in terms of the direction of the country and I think, even if you look at the numbers, in terms of this potential war, they're not terribly comfortable. So I think that's the message they're sending. It's not disaster. I don't disagree. If this was the election month and he was 58 percent, they should feel very good.

But we're two years away from an election and again, I'll say, in 17 months he's dropped 32 percent in the polls.

ZAHN: Matthew, why?

DOWD: Well, it, it's hard to go up when you're at 90 percent. So I don't know if there's a trend other than the fact that you drop down. And it's something that we expected. And it's something that everybody that's looked at these numbers expected.

The unbelievable part of this is the fact that it took 17 months to get to 58 and he's still not back at the point he was to before, the previous president...

KAMBER: Which was 51.

DOWD: Which was 51. So he's seven points higher than he was when he started 17 months ago. I think the thing that's amazing about this is the fact that it lasted for 17 months, that he even got to 58, which is still a high point. I mean talk about trends...

KAMBER: I agree with you.

DOWD: OK.

ZAHN: All right... KAMBER: I totally agree, Matthew, that it's amazing he lasted this long given the way he's run the country, and I think the trend is going to show that he continues to drop. And I hope Republicans stay euphoric about 58 percent when it's 55 and 52 and then 45 percent.

ZAHN: Oh, Vic, but you don't know the numbers are going there.

Victor, analyze this number for us. The numbers are pretty high when it comes to the president's performance on defense, the war on terrorism. As you can see, these are much higher numbers. Fifty-nine percent say the president is devoting the right amount of attention to the war on terrorism. Only 25 percent think he's devoting too much attention.

How do you think a potential war with Iraq might affect these numbers, Victor?

KAMBER: Well, I think unless he, frankly, is able to show that -- I mean we all, let me start with, that Saddam Hussein is an evil force, an evil man, a bad man. We have a lot of bad men in the world, the North Korean president, the president in Cuba, etc. There's a whole bunch of 'em. But unless he can show that there's weapons of mass destruction out there, unless he can prove to our allies and to the American public, I think he's going to have some problems there.

Today we support the president. That's our normal feeling. And I don't care Republican or Democrat, partisanship aside, if you're going to go to war, if you're going to be in a problem, you want to be behind the president. But at some point when American lives are at stake and people are losing their lives, there'd better be a real reason for it.

ZAHN: Matthew Dowd, you get the final word this morning. You've got about 10 seconds to wrap it up.

DOWD: I just think fundamentally, whether it's the war or whether it's the economy, overall the public trust this president. They think he's honest and trustworthy and think he's a strong leader and think he has a vision. And that's why his numbers have stayed as high as they have stayed for so long.

So I think they fundamentally trust this president.

ZAHN: Victor Kamber, Matthew Dowd, thank you both for joining us this morning.

KAMBER: Thank you.

DOWD: Thanks, Paula.

ZAHN: Always glad to have the two of you on the air with us.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com