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American Morning
NATO Members Throw United States Curveball
Aired February 10, 2003 - 09:04 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: NATO members throw the United States a curveball. France, Belgium and Germany have now blocked a request to give Turkey military protection in case of a war against Iraq, but NATO's secretary general says he thinks ultimately, the deadlock will be resolved.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE ROBERTSON, NATO SECRETARY GENERAL: This is undoubtedly a difficult situation. But allies have had differences before, and they will undoubtedly have more in the future. What matters is to arrive at a consensus, and I'm confident that we will.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ZAHN: For more reaction to that, we go to Suzanne Malveaux at the White House.
Was the White House caught off guard by all of this, or did they see this coming?
Good morning, Suzanne.
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Paula.
White House officials are furious at this development, and of course, it complicates matters. They're looking very closely at this. Perhaps it will be a good benchmark to see what happens in the U.N. Security Council later in the week.
You may recall it was in November, President Bush went before NATO at the summit and got a declaration of support, support for resolution 1441, requiring Saddam Hussein to disarm. He did not, however, get the endorsement of military action by the body, but instead individual members came forward and said, yes, they would be willing to endorser and support military action. That's what the administration was hoping for.
But they were also hoping that NATO as a body would at least defend a fellow NATO member, in this case being Turkey, that they would supply missiles and planes and that type of thing. The reason this is so important to the administration, they have been trying desperately to at least get permission for U.S. troops to be on Turkey's bases just in case military action is necessary. Of course, this has really thrown a monkey wrench into all of this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CONDOLEEZZA RICE, NATL. SECURITY ADVISER: France and Germany are good friends and good allies, but I think it is no secret that we believe that blocking, for instance, NATO's preparations to defend Turkey is not helpful.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MALVEAUX: Now, the hope this will be resolved in a matter of time, but as you can imagine, Paula, the reason this is so important is that NATO, Turkey being one of the only Muslim member of NATO, it also borders Iraq, and really, hopefully, if they can get those troops inside of Turkey, that they can squeeze out Saddam Hussein from the north. This really complicates matters if they can't do that -- Paula.
ZAHN: Suzanne Malveaux, thanks for your update. Suzanne reporting from the White House for us, as she usually does.
After two days of meetings this weekend in Baghdad, the U.N.'s chief weapons inspectors say they believe Iraq is starting to understand the seriousness of the world's disarmament demands.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MOHAMED ELBARADEI, IAEA: We need to see a change of heart on the part of Iraq. I would say that I'm seeing the beginning of a change of heart on the part of Iraq. There are, I think, eagerness we have seen for them to move on these issues.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ZAHN: Still Iraq's response is getting the cold shoulder from the White House.
Joining us now from Washington to talk more about the latest developments, Kenneth Pollack, CNN analyst and director of research at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution.
Welcome back, Ken.
KENNETH POLLACK, CNN ANALYST: Good morning, Paula, how are you?
ZAHN: I'm fine, thanks. So as you see it today, based on what we're hearing out of Mohammed ElBaradei and Hans Blix, in an interview with Richard Roth earlier today, are we one step closer to war?
POLLACK: I think we are. I think each passing day brings us one step closer to war, because I think the administration pretty much made up its mind a couple of weeks ago, and I think the only thing that might derail that move to war is the one thing that I think is very unlikely. That is a true change of heart on the part of Saddam Hussein. You heard Dr. ElBaradei saying he thinks he sees the beginning of a change of heart. I don't think that really there is any evidence of that. What we're hearing now is that the reports that the U.N. received from Iraq had no new information in it. The Iraqis are going back. They wouldn't even give a yes to the U-2 flights. My guess is that at some point, Saddam Hussein will come forward with that, because these are the cosmetic concessions that he can make, thinking this will string out the process.
But you still don't see that Saddam Hussein gets it. He still doesn't believe that the United States is really going to go to war, and he still thinks that he can continue to play games.
ZAHN: Help us decipher what chief weapons inspector Hans Blix is saying right now, because I know he has a couple of different audiences here. On one hand, he said he saw no evidence of Iraqi weapons during a visit to Baghdad, and at the same time, he's rejecting European calls for more inspectors on the ground.
POLLACK: Well, first on the one hand, in terms of what the inspectors are supposed to do, Hans Blix probably has enough inspectors. If he wanted to add another 100 or so inspectors, that would probably be fine, because at the end of the day, what any inspector will tell you is that the number of inspectors is really irrelevant. Whether they have 100 or 300, or 3,000 or 30,000 doesn't really matter. All that matters is whether or not the Iraqis are willing to comply, because what the inspectors will tell you is they can't forcibly disarm Saddam Hussein. All they can do it verify that Saddam Hussein is voluntarily disarming.
And so I think what Mr. Blix is saying, look, we've got personnel to do the job, if the Iraqis are going to be wig to let us. And still, there's no real sign that the Iraqis are going to do what's necessary to actually let them do their job.
ZAHN: Going to ask you to look through a crystal ball here, so it comes Friday, Valentine's Day when everybody's sitting at the U.N. and the Security Council meets, what do you expect to happen?
POLLACK: Boy, good question. My guess is that you will see Blix give a report that is similar to the one that he gave on January 27th, but my guess is he probably will try to accentuate the positive a little bit more, to quote the old song. I think that the last time around, he was very neutral and very objective, and that played very much into President Bush's hands.
What we've seen from Blix a little bit in interviews since then is he may feel like he was a little bit too objective, a little bit too honest in his read, and this time around, he might try to spin things a little bit more to point out that the Iraqis are trying to come around, to try to give a little bit to the French and the Germans and others, who would like to give the inspections a bit more time.
ZAHN: Good answer. Even though I was asking you to do something very tough, which is read the minds of everybody sitting on the Security Council.
Kenneth Pollack, as always, thanks for your perspective. TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired February 10, 2003 - 09:04 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: NATO members throw the United States a curveball. France, Belgium and Germany have now blocked a request to give Turkey military protection in case of a war against Iraq, but NATO's secretary general says he thinks ultimately, the deadlock will be resolved.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE ROBERTSON, NATO SECRETARY GENERAL: This is undoubtedly a difficult situation. But allies have had differences before, and they will undoubtedly have more in the future. What matters is to arrive at a consensus, and I'm confident that we will.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ZAHN: For more reaction to that, we go to Suzanne Malveaux at the White House.
Was the White House caught off guard by all of this, or did they see this coming?
Good morning, Suzanne.
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Paula.
White House officials are furious at this development, and of course, it complicates matters. They're looking very closely at this. Perhaps it will be a good benchmark to see what happens in the U.N. Security Council later in the week.
You may recall it was in November, President Bush went before NATO at the summit and got a declaration of support, support for resolution 1441, requiring Saddam Hussein to disarm. He did not, however, get the endorsement of military action by the body, but instead individual members came forward and said, yes, they would be willing to endorser and support military action. That's what the administration was hoping for.
But they were also hoping that NATO as a body would at least defend a fellow NATO member, in this case being Turkey, that they would supply missiles and planes and that type of thing. The reason this is so important to the administration, they have been trying desperately to at least get permission for U.S. troops to be on Turkey's bases just in case military action is necessary. Of course, this has really thrown a monkey wrench into all of this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CONDOLEEZZA RICE, NATL. SECURITY ADVISER: France and Germany are good friends and good allies, but I think it is no secret that we believe that blocking, for instance, NATO's preparations to defend Turkey is not helpful.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MALVEAUX: Now, the hope this will be resolved in a matter of time, but as you can imagine, Paula, the reason this is so important is that NATO, Turkey being one of the only Muslim member of NATO, it also borders Iraq, and really, hopefully, if they can get those troops inside of Turkey, that they can squeeze out Saddam Hussein from the north. This really complicates matters if they can't do that -- Paula.
ZAHN: Suzanne Malveaux, thanks for your update. Suzanne reporting from the White House for us, as she usually does.
After two days of meetings this weekend in Baghdad, the U.N.'s chief weapons inspectors say they believe Iraq is starting to understand the seriousness of the world's disarmament demands.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MOHAMED ELBARADEI, IAEA: We need to see a change of heart on the part of Iraq. I would say that I'm seeing the beginning of a change of heart on the part of Iraq. There are, I think, eagerness we have seen for them to move on these issues.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ZAHN: Still Iraq's response is getting the cold shoulder from the White House.
Joining us now from Washington to talk more about the latest developments, Kenneth Pollack, CNN analyst and director of research at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution.
Welcome back, Ken.
KENNETH POLLACK, CNN ANALYST: Good morning, Paula, how are you?
ZAHN: I'm fine, thanks. So as you see it today, based on what we're hearing out of Mohammed ElBaradei and Hans Blix, in an interview with Richard Roth earlier today, are we one step closer to war?
POLLACK: I think we are. I think each passing day brings us one step closer to war, because I think the administration pretty much made up its mind a couple of weeks ago, and I think the only thing that might derail that move to war is the one thing that I think is very unlikely. That is a true change of heart on the part of Saddam Hussein. You heard Dr. ElBaradei saying he thinks he sees the beginning of a change of heart. I don't think that really there is any evidence of that. What we're hearing now is that the reports that the U.N. received from Iraq had no new information in it. The Iraqis are going back. They wouldn't even give a yes to the U-2 flights. My guess is that at some point, Saddam Hussein will come forward with that, because these are the cosmetic concessions that he can make, thinking this will string out the process.
But you still don't see that Saddam Hussein gets it. He still doesn't believe that the United States is really going to go to war, and he still thinks that he can continue to play games.
ZAHN: Help us decipher what chief weapons inspector Hans Blix is saying right now, because I know he has a couple of different audiences here. On one hand, he said he saw no evidence of Iraqi weapons during a visit to Baghdad, and at the same time, he's rejecting European calls for more inspectors on the ground.
POLLACK: Well, first on the one hand, in terms of what the inspectors are supposed to do, Hans Blix probably has enough inspectors. If he wanted to add another 100 or so inspectors, that would probably be fine, because at the end of the day, what any inspector will tell you is that the number of inspectors is really irrelevant. Whether they have 100 or 300, or 3,000 or 30,000 doesn't really matter. All that matters is whether or not the Iraqis are willing to comply, because what the inspectors will tell you is they can't forcibly disarm Saddam Hussein. All they can do it verify that Saddam Hussein is voluntarily disarming.
And so I think what Mr. Blix is saying, look, we've got personnel to do the job, if the Iraqis are going to be wig to let us. And still, there's no real sign that the Iraqis are going to do what's necessary to actually let them do their job.
ZAHN: Going to ask you to look through a crystal ball here, so it comes Friday, Valentine's Day when everybody's sitting at the U.N. and the Security Council meets, what do you expect to happen?
POLLACK: Boy, good question. My guess is that you will see Blix give a report that is similar to the one that he gave on January 27th, but my guess is he probably will try to accentuate the positive a little bit more, to quote the old song. I think that the last time around, he was very neutral and very objective, and that played very much into President Bush's hands.
What we've seen from Blix a little bit in interviews since then is he may feel like he was a little bit too objective, a little bit too honest in his read, and this time around, he might try to spin things a little bit more to point out that the Iraqis are trying to come around, to try to give a little bit to the French and the Germans and others, who would like to give the inspections a bit more time.
ZAHN: Good answer. Even though I was asking you to do something very tough, which is read the minds of everybody sitting on the Security Council.
Kenneth Pollack, as always, thanks for your perspective. TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
