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American Morning
Could This Morning's Report be Turning Point?
Aired February 14, 2003 - 07:39 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Could this morning's report from the U.N.'s chief weapons inspector be the turning point toward a war against Iraq?
Joining us now from London with his take, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Jamie Rubin.
Welcome back, Jamie.
Always good to see you.
JAMES RUBIN, FORMER ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF STATE: Nice to be with you.
ZAHN: I don't know how much of our reporting you could hear this morning, but Richard Roth saying from the U.N. that it appears that it will be a pretty mixed bag that we're going to hear today of some non- cooperation by Iraqis and then pointing to some other areas where they have been more cooperative.
At the end of the day, where do you think the debate will be?
RUBIN: Well, I think that Blix will say there has been some movement on the margins, some modest steps, but there's no sign of real compliance. The U.S. will then, in behind-the-scenes discussions, be facing the real moment of truth, not just the other countries, but the U.S. as well. If France and Russia and China and some of the other members make it clear that they are not ready to vote for a resolution in favor of the use of military force, the president's going to have to make a big decision, do we go to war without that resolution?
Everything I can surmise now is that the only way to bring the French and the Russians and others on board is for a substantial delay, a delay of months, many months, perhaps as many as three or four months will be the time frame that France and Russia will need in order to say that they'll vote for a resolution, and that time frame does not work for what the Americans have been talking about.
So I think we're at a moment of truth for everybody. The inspection report is not going to answer any more questions for people. Inspections are no longer the issue. The issue is what penalty should Iraq pay for non-compliance. And the French position is they're not ready to support war. They want to give it more time. And the Americans, as you know, are saying that time has run out.
ZAHN: Well, let's talk about that for a moment, because the president seemed to imply in his remarks yesterday the real moment of the truth today will come whether, you know, the U.N. Security Council will stand by its resolution that it agreed to.
Let's listen to exactly what the president had to say yesterday.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The decision is this for the United Nations, when you say something, does it mean anything?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ZAHN: So, do you think that ambiguousness will be cleared up at all?
RUBIN: I don't think that that message will solve the problem for France and Russia. I think their problem is that they really believe that the risks of war outweigh the benefits and they believe that we need to give it more time.
Now, other people have been saying quite convincingly that the French position is illogical. The need for more inspections, more inspectors, even, Hans Blix has said, is not going to do the job.
What we saw that's really important this week was in NATO the French and the Germans vetoed, effectively, a resolution. And what they were doing through that is sending the United States a message that they will veto a resolution in the Security Council if necessary. Meanwhile, the U.S. was sending the message we're going to push a resolution through and isolate you, as they were in NATO, 16 to 3.
So we're in a diplomatic showdown of the highest possible stakes and I see no reason to think that this report will answer the question one way or another. The only thing that might is after the report is delivered, the foreign ministers will have a chance to really talk to each other behind-the-scenes and the Americans need to find out what is France's bottom line. They've never answered the question of how long is long enough.
And meanwhile, the Americans are going to have to make a big judgment. If it's too long that the French are insisting on, do we go forward without their support. And this is the highest possible stakes, diplomatic showdown. Today, standing here today, I think the chances of the France coming on board the U.S. position in a matter of a week or two is far, far less than it was the last time Hans Blix reported at the end of January.
ZAHN: Well, we're going to have to leave it there, Jamie.
We look forward to your insights throughout the morning as we go into our special coverage mode.
Thank you very much for joining us.
Now, we will have live coverage of the critical report to the U.N. this morning. Wolf Blitzer and Christiane Amanpour will also be joining me for our team coverage. That gets under way at about 10:00 Eastern, 7:00 Pacific.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired February 14, 2003 - 07:39 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Could this morning's report from the U.N.'s chief weapons inspector be the turning point toward a war against Iraq?
Joining us now from London with his take, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Jamie Rubin.
Welcome back, Jamie.
Always good to see you.
JAMES RUBIN, FORMER ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF STATE: Nice to be with you.
ZAHN: I don't know how much of our reporting you could hear this morning, but Richard Roth saying from the U.N. that it appears that it will be a pretty mixed bag that we're going to hear today of some non- cooperation by Iraqis and then pointing to some other areas where they have been more cooperative.
At the end of the day, where do you think the debate will be?
RUBIN: Well, I think that Blix will say there has been some movement on the margins, some modest steps, but there's no sign of real compliance. The U.S. will then, in behind-the-scenes discussions, be facing the real moment of truth, not just the other countries, but the U.S. as well. If France and Russia and China and some of the other members make it clear that they are not ready to vote for a resolution in favor of the use of military force, the president's going to have to make a big decision, do we go to war without that resolution?
Everything I can surmise now is that the only way to bring the French and the Russians and others on board is for a substantial delay, a delay of months, many months, perhaps as many as three or four months will be the time frame that France and Russia will need in order to say that they'll vote for a resolution, and that time frame does not work for what the Americans have been talking about.
So I think we're at a moment of truth for everybody. The inspection report is not going to answer any more questions for people. Inspections are no longer the issue. The issue is what penalty should Iraq pay for non-compliance. And the French position is they're not ready to support war. They want to give it more time. And the Americans, as you know, are saying that time has run out.
ZAHN: Well, let's talk about that for a moment, because the president seemed to imply in his remarks yesterday the real moment of the truth today will come whether, you know, the U.N. Security Council will stand by its resolution that it agreed to.
Let's listen to exactly what the president had to say yesterday.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The decision is this for the United Nations, when you say something, does it mean anything?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ZAHN: So, do you think that ambiguousness will be cleared up at all?
RUBIN: I don't think that that message will solve the problem for France and Russia. I think their problem is that they really believe that the risks of war outweigh the benefits and they believe that we need to give it more time.
Now, other people have been saying quite convincingly that the French position is illogical. The need for more inspections, more inspectors, even, Hans Blix has said, is not going to do the job.
What we saw that's really important this week was in NATO the French and the Germans vetoed, effectively, a resolution. And what they were doing through that is sending the United States a message that they will veto a resolution in the Security Council if necessary. Meanwhile, the U.S. was sending the message we're going to push a resolution through and isolate you, as they were in NATO, 16 to 3.
So we're in a diplomatic showdown of the highest possible stakes and I see no reason to think that this report will answer the question one way or another. The only thing that might is after the report is delivered, the foreign ministers will have a chance to really talk to each other behind-the-scenes and the Americans need to find out what is France's bottom line. They've never answered the question of how long is long enough.
And meanwhile, the Americans are going to have to make a big judgment. If it's too long that the French are insisting on, do we go forward without their support. And this is the highest possible stakes, diplomatic showdown. Today, standing here today, I think the chances of the France coming on board the U.S. position in a matter of a week or two is far, far less than it was the last time Hans Blix reported at the end of January.
ZAHN: Well, we're going to have to leave it there, Jamie.
We look forward to your insights throughout the morning as we go into our special coverage mode.
Thank you very much for joining us.
Now, we will have live coverage of the critical report to the U.N. this morning. Wolf Blitzer and Christiane Amanpour will also be joining me for our team coverage. That gets under way at about 10:00 Eastern, 7:00 Pacific.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
