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American Morning

Interview With James Rubin, Former Assistant Secretary of State

Aired February 24, 2003 - 07:17   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: As the U.S. gets ready to introduce a new U.N. resolution that may pave the way for war against Iraq, Baghdad says it would consider destroying a large number of missiles as the U.N. is demanding. President Bush, though, not convinced that Saddam Hussein will ever disarm, and says the Al Samoud missiles are just the tip of the iceberg.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Saddam Hussein wants time. And after all, he thinks he'll get time, because he has done so far -- he has deceived the world for 12 years. He'll play like he's going to disarm. He has no intention of disarming.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HEMMER: President Bush from this weekend.

Could Iraq's handling, though, of the missile issue make the difference between peace and war? A lot of opinions on this today.

One man who is of the opinion that this is truly placing the Iraqi issue in terms of black and white is James Rubin, a former employee of the U.S. State Department. We have talked to him many times. He's live with us in London, and we're going to pick up our satellite image and clean it up for you in a little bit and bring in Jamie on this topic.

But suffice to say at this point, this is a major issue for the U.N. Hans Blix has essentially told the Iraqis to take care of these missiles beginning on or around the 1st of March, which puts it sometime this coming weekend.

Iraq today for its matter, earlier today, the science minister said they are studying the issue and will make a decision soon.

Let's get the gremlins out of the satellite and say good morning and good afternoon to Jamie Rubin.

Jamie, you say this is a black and white issue. Tell us why.

JAMES RUBIN, FMR. ASST. SECY. OF STATE: Well, I think up until now, all of the issues before the Security Council have been procedural issues. Will the Iraqis allow inspectors to go into this building? Will they go into palaces? Will they allow U-2 flights to fly? But none of them have constituted disarmament. They've been procedural issues.

This is real disarmament if it takes place. If Saddam Hussein blinks and destroys what would be something like 100 Al Samoud missiles, hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of equipment associated with those missiles, something like 350 engines for those types of missiles, this would be a real act of disarmament that I think would put a real difficult spike into the ability of the administration to get a second resolution.

If, on the other hand, he fails to destroy these missiles and the associated equipment as Hans Blix has demanded, then I think the Americans are in a very good position to get support from the Security Council for this second resolution. France has backed up Blix's demand to destroy these missiles.

And by being a concrete disarmament issue, where concrete equipment is involved, it involves hundreds of millions of dollars of equipment the Iraqis would need in a war, it's an excruciating choice. It's a black and white issue that Saddam Hussein cannot escape from, and will impact on whether the administration is able to get a second resolution.

HEMMER: Why then, Jamie, is it that we're just finding out about this issue now? And does that suggest, as the president says, it's only the tip of the iceberg for what may lie underneath?

RUBIN: Well, surely it is the tip of the iceberg. There are chemical and biological weapons capabilities in Iraq that they have not accounted for that are probably still there. But what's different about this issue is that when the inspectors left in 1998, they told Iraq not to build this particular missile. The Iraqis did it anyway.

When Blix arrived, he received information about these missiles. He studied them. He brought it to an expert group that includes officials from France, from Russia, from all over the world. They declared this missile a prohibited missile. He sent a very stiff letter to the Iraqis. No gray, a black and white demand that all of these missiles be destroyed beginning on March the 1st.

So, in my opinion, starting on March the 1st or before, we will know whether Saddam Hussein is going to blink. And if he blinks and destroys this equipment, I just think it will be a lot harder for the administration to convince this wavering group of countries that Richard Roth talked about earlier in your program to support a second U.N. resolution.

If he doesn't destroy the weapons, however, I think France and Russia and the other countries will join us in a second resolution, and the war will commence under a U.N. authority rather than an American-led action.

HEMMER: Thank you, Jamie -- Jamie Rubin, good to talk to you. The man does have a face; we know that. We can show you what it looks like right now, but the satellite image from London is not great. So, our due respect to you, Jamie, thanks for hanging in there. Good to hear your voice anyway. TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.





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Aired February 24, 2003 - 07:17   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: As the U.S. gets ready to introduce a new U.N. resolution that may pave the way for war against Iraq, Baghdad says it would consider destroying a large number of missiles as the U.N. is demanding. President Bush, though, not convinced that Saddam Hussein will ever disarm, and says the Al Samoud missiles are just the tip of the iceberg.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Saddam Hussein wants time. And after all, he thinks he'll get time, because he has done so far -- he has deceived the world for 12 years. He'll play like he's going to disarm. He has no intention of disarming.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HEMMER: President Bush from this weekend.

Could Iraq's handling, though, of the missile issue make the difference between peace and war? A lot of opinions on this today.

One man who is of the opinion that this is truly placing the Iraqi issue in terms of black and white is James Rubin, a former employee of the U.S. State Department. We have talked to him many times. He's live with us in London, and we're going to pick up our satellite image and clean it up for you in a little bit and bring in Jamie on this topic.

But suffice to say at this point, this is a major issue for the U.N. Hans Blix has essentially told the Iraqis to take care of these missiles beginning on or around the 1st of March, which puts it sometime this coming weekend.

Iraq today for its matter, earlier today, the science minister said they are studying the issue and will make a decision soon.

Let's get the gremlins out of the satellite and say good morning and good afternoon to Jamie Rubin.

Jamie, you say this is a black and white issue. Tell us why.

JAMES RUBIN, FMR. ASST. SECY. OF STATE: Well, I think up until now, all of the issues before the Security Council have been procedural issues. Will the Iraqis allow inspectors to go into this building? Will they go into palaces? Will they allow U-2 flights to fly? But none of them have constituted disarmament. They've been procedural issues.

This is real disarmament if it takes place. If Saddam Hussein blinks and destroys what would be something like 100 Al Samoud missiles, hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of equipment associated with those missiles, something like 350 engines for those types of missiles, this would be a real act of disarmament that I think would put a real difficult spike into the ability of the administration to get a second resolution.

If, on the other hand, he fails to destroy these missiles and the associated equipment as Hans Blix has demanded, then I think the Americans are in a very good position to get support from the Security Council for this second resolution. France has backed up Blix's demand to destroy these missiles.

And by being a concrete disarmament issue, where concrete equipment is involved, it involves hundreds of millions of dollars of equipment the Iraqis would need in a war, it's an excruciating choice. It's a black and white issue that Saddam Hussein cannot escape from, and will impact on whether the administration is able to get a second resolution.

HEMMER: Why then, Jamie, is it that we're just finding out about this issue now? And does that suggest, as the president says, it's only the tip of the iceberg for what may lie underneath?

RUBIN: Well, surely it is the tip of the iceberg. There are chemical and biological weapons capabilities in Iraq that they have not accounted for that are probably still there. But what's different about this issue is that when the inspectors left in 1998, they told Iraq not to build this particular missile. The Iraqis did it anyway.

When Blix arrived, he received information about these missiles. He studied them. He brought it to an expert group that includes officials from France, from Russia, from all over the world. They declared this missile a prohibited missile. He sent a very stiff letter to the Iraqis. No gray, a black and white demand that all of these missiles be destroyed beginning on March the 1st.

So, in my opinion, starting on March the 1st or before, we will know whether Saddam Hussein is going to blink. And if he blinks and destroys this equipment, I just think it will be a lot harder for the administration to convince this wavering group of countries that Richard Roth talked about earlier in your program to support a second U.N. resolution.

If he doesn't destroy the weapons, however, I think France and Russia and the other countries will join us in a second resolution, and the war will commence under a U.N. authority rather than an American-led action.

HEMMER: Thank you, Jamie -- Jamie Rubin, good to talk to you. The man does have a face; we know that. We can show you what it looks like right now, but the satellite image from London is not great. So, our due respect to you, Jamie, thanks for hanging in there. Good to hear your voice anyway. TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.





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