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American Morning
Discussion with James Rubin
Aired March 03, 2003 - 08:07 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Now on to the issue of Iraq. The showdown with Iraq poses increasingly complex diplomatic issues for the U.S. Iraq is starting to go along with the destruction of missiles that the U.N. demanded, while Turkey is saying no to the use of its bases by U.S. troops if there is an Iraq war.
Joining us to talk about the latest on Iraq as well as the still unsettled North Korean stand-off, former Assistant Secretary of State James Rubin.
Nice to see you in person for a change.
JAMES RUBIN, FORMER ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF STATE: Nice to see you, too.
ZAHN: We're used to communicating with you when you're in London on a TV monitor.
RUBIN: That's right.
ZAHN: First off, where do you think the debate is in the U.N. right now, particularly with the French coming out yesterday and not saying on the record whether they will, indeed, veto this second resolution?
RUBIN: Well, I think this is going to be a real cliff hanger and the French and the Russians are doing their very best not to threaten a veto, because they're very much hoping that they won't have to, that the administration won't be able to muster nine votes, a positive vote. That means they won't need to veto.
I think the Iraqi decision to destroy these missiles definitely makes it harder. You can say that this is the tip of the iceberg but you also have to acknowledge, and people will acknowledge, and Hans Blix, the weapons inspector will acknowledge, that this is the first real disarmament that's taken place since this whole crisis began.
So it makes it a lot, lot tougher, and I think the French and the Russians are secretly hoping they don't have to veto this thing but the administration realizes it doesn't have nine votes and never puts it to a vote.
ZAHN: I hear people out there today saying they do think the United States might be able to get to nine votes. What do you think? Is it possible?
RUBIN: Yes. If I had to bet, I would bet that they're going to put enough pressure on to get to the nine votes. Pakistan is an interesting question mark now today with this al Qaeda decision. We could get to that. But I think between Mexico, Chile, a couple of African countries, Pakistan, you get awfully close to nine. And then the French have to answer this, you know, $64,000 question will they really veto a resolution the United States has worked so hard for? And I don't even think Jacques Chirac knows the answer to that yet.
ZAHN: What would be the consequences of a veto if the United States gets nine?
RUBIN: I think to veto...
ZAHN: Is it more likely you go to war?
RUBIN: I don't think the veto changes the likelihood of war. If the administration gets nine votes, it will feel it has won a moral victory, if not a real victory, in terms of U.N. ease. The real test for the U.S.-French and the U.S.-German relationship, I don't think is going to be played out in the Security Council. I think it's going to be played out in how the Germans and the French talk about the war when and if it begins. Are they going to continue their questioning of it, their doubting of it, their saying it's the wrong thing to do when American soldiers are actually in battle?
And if they do that, I think the U.S.-French relationship is in for a, you know, a decade long freeze. If, on the other hand...
ZAHN: But given their business interests in Iraq, once a war starts, if it does, do you think that's the route they'll take?
RUBIN: Well, there will be German and French politicians who probably can't control themselves who will have been so much against this that they might even, you know, have this sick secret hope that somehow it will go badly. And I think that that will be something that we'll have to see. If they can maintain discipline in Paris and Berlin and private their junior politicians, junior ministers from speaking out, then we'll probably get through this.
But I bet there is one or two comments that are splashed across your screen a couple months from now, if and when we go to war.
ZAHN: A final thought on the link between al Qaeda and Iraq.
RUBIN: Well, I think what's interesting now is that the administration has proved to the critics that it can walk and chew gum at the same time, it can pursue vigorously a big catch on al Qaeda and meanwhile move forward on the war in Iraq. The war in Iraq is either the right thing to do or the wrong thing to do. It should be judged on its merits. I've never believed that we can't do both and I think this arrest over the weekend proves that.
ZAHN: Jamie Rubin, great to see you in person.
RUBIN: Thank you. Nice to see you.
ZAHN: Thanks for stopping by. TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired March 3, 2003 - 08:07 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Now on to the issue of Iraq. The showdown with Iraq poses increasingly complex diplomatic issues for the U.S. Iraq is starting to go along with the destruction of missiles that the U.N. demanded, while Turkey is saying no to the use of its bases by U.S. troops if there is an Iraq war.
Joining us to talk about the latest on Iraq as well as the still unsettled North Korean stand-off, former Assistant Secretary of State James Rubin.
Nice to see you in person for a change.
JAMES RUBIN, FORMER ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF STATE: Nice to see you, too.
ZAHN: We're used to communicating with you when you're in London on a TV monitor.
RUBIN: That's right.
ZAHN: First off, where do you think the debate is in the U.N. right now, particularly with the French coming out yesterday and not saying on the record whether they will, indeed, veto this second resolution?
RUBIN: Well, I think this is going to be a real cliff hanger and the French and the Russians are doing their very best not to threaten a veto, because they're very much hoping that they won't have to, that the administration won't be able to muster nine votes, a positive vote. That means they won't need to veto.
I think the Iraqi decision to destroy these missiles definitely makes it harder. You can say that this is the tip of the iceberg but you also have to acknowledge, and people will acknowledge, and Hans Blix, the weapons inspector will acknowledge, that this is the first real disarmament that's taken place since this whole crisis began.
So it makes it a lot, lot tougher, and I think the French and the Russians are secretly hoping they don't have to veto this thing but the administration realizes it doesn't have nine votes and never puts it to a vote.
ZAHN: I hear people out there today saying they do think the United States might be able to get to nine votes. What do you think? Is it possible?
RUBIN: Yes. If I had to bet, I would bet that they're going to put enough pressure on to get to the nine votes. Pakistan is an interesting question mark now today with this al Qaeda decision. We could get to that. But I think between Mexico, Chile, a couple of African countries, Pakistan, you get awfully close to nine. And then the French have to answer this, you know, $64,000 question will they really veto a resolution the United States has worked so hard for? And I don't even think Jacques Chirac knows the answer to that yet.
ZAHN: What would be the consequences of a veto if the United States gets nine?
RUBIN: I think to veto...
ZAHN: Is it more likely you go to war?
RUBIN: I don't think the veto changes the likelihood of war. If the administration gets nine votes, it will feel it has won a moral victory, if not a real victory, in terms of U.N. ease. The real test for the U.S.-French and the U.S.-German relationship, I don't think is going to be played out in the Security Council. I think it's going to be played out in how the Germans and the French talk about the war when and if it begins. Are they going to continue their questioning of it, their doubting of it, their saying it's the wrong thing to do when American soldiers are actually in battle?
And if they do that, I think the U.S.-French relationship is in for a, you know, a decade long freeze. If, on the other hand...
ZAHN: But given their business interests in Iraq, once a war starts, if it does, do you think that's the route they'll take?
RUBIN: Well, there will be German and French politicians who probably can't control themselves who will have been so much against this that they might even, you know, have this sick secret hope that somehow it will go badly. And I think that that will be something that we'll have to see. If they can maintain discipline in Paris and Berlin and private their junior politicians, junior ministers from speaking out, then we'll probably get through this.
But I bet there is one or two comments that are splashed across your screen a couple months from now, if and when we go to war.
ZAHN: A final thought on the link between al Qaeda and Iraq.
RUBIN: Well, I think what's interesting now is that the administration has proved to the critics that it can walk and chew gum at the same time, it can pursue vigorously a big catch on al Qaeda and meanwhile move forward on the war in Iraq. The war in Iraq is either the right thing to do or the wrong thing to do. It should be judged on its merits. I've never believed that we can't do both and I think this arrest over the weekend proves that.
ZAHN: Jamie Rubin, great to see you in person.
RUBIN: Thank you. Nice to see you.
ZAHN: Thanks for stopping by. TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
