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American Morning

Azores Analysis

Aired March 17, 2003 - 09:35   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: The coalition of the willing came out of this weekend's Azores summit with a message for the U.N.: today is the moment of truth, President Bush says, for diplomatic efforts to disarm Iraq, but opponents of war saying that won't change their minds. What comes now?
Ashton Carter is a former assistant secretary of defense. He joins us live from Watertown, Massachusetts. Good to have you with us, sir. Thanks so much for joining us.

What did you make of the Azores Summit?

ASHTON CARTER, FMR. ASST. SECY. OF STATE: Well, it was one last chance for the president to get together with those who are already convinced we need to go forward now, explain their reasoning and set up the United Nations today for its one last chance. Hard to believe, though, that anything will happen in New York that will change the course of events over the next week.

ZAHN: It's interesting, "The Wall Street Journal" characterized the Azores Summit as one last chance for Saddam Hussein to disarm, but also one last chance for Jacques Chirac to perhaps cut some sort of compromise. You don't think there's any chance that that's going to happen?

CARTER: He said that he wasn't going to change his mind. He's willing to go with some lengthy timetable, more inspections of the kind we've seen so much of, but nothing like what President Bush seems to have in mind or Tony Blair seems to have in mind, which is a last chance for Saddam Hussein which would mean his fleeing the country, or his giving the kind of information and the kind of cooperation that's been so lacking over the last months.

CARTER: So you could imagine some kind of surprise from Baghdad over the next few days. I don't consider that likely. But it's very hard to imagine any surprises from New York or Paris.

ZAHN: Saddam Hussein making some menacing prediction over weekend, if it comes to war, that he can cause some major damage almost any place in the world. Do you fear that?

CARTER: I actually believe that the campaign will go well in Iraq. If you saw last week the United States requested that Iraqi intelligence agents overseas be expelled from countries to which they are assigned. The Iraqi Intelligence service does not have a great reputation for great competence. So my guess is that there may be a few incidents here and there, but by and large, the action will be in Iraq. And if, as we expect, and certainly as we all hope, this war goes well, and goes quickly, and Saddam Hussein doesn't do anything grotesque in the course of it, things will look different a few weeks from now from the way they look now. It's clear we won't have vindication in the eyes of the world before the fact, but I believe it's very likely we will after the fact, that is when we are successful militarily, but also when we're able to hold up the weapons of mass destruction, the chemical and biological weapons in the aftermath of war, when we're able to display other gruesome aspects of Saddam Hussein's reign, things might look very different a few weeks from now, and the world will say, come to think of it, it had to be done, they did it, they were a little rough about it maybe, but we're glad they did it.

ZAHN: If we end up going to war and the military campaign is successful as we all hope it will be, do you think a month down the road it will very much look like the French made the wrong call?

CARTER: I think it will. I don't think it's at all plausible in anybody's mind, even now, that inspections of the kind the French have long advocate would really work. So I don't think many people believe that. The principle thing motivating people around the world is not real hope for the inspections, but hope that somehow war could be averted, because they fear war will be ugly and gruesome. I hope and I actually anticipate that the war will be quick. I certainly hope it will be accomplished with a minimum of bloodshed, and therefore, those who feared the war beforehand will afterwards ask themselves, what was the basis for my belief that we should keep on with inspections?

ZAHN: Ashton Carter, delighted to have you on the air, first time, I believe this is your first AMERICAN MORNING edition this morning.

CARTER: I think it is. Great pleasure to be here.

ZAHN: Love to have you back. Appreciate your input, a cabinet member during the Clinton administration.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired March 17, 2003 - 09:35   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: The coalition of the willing came out of this weekend's Azores summit with a message for the U.N.: today is the moment of truth, President Bush says, for diplomatic efforts to disarm Iraq, but opponents of war saying that won't change their minds. What comes now?
Ashton Carter is a former assistant secretary of defense. He joins us live from Watertown, Massachusetts. Good to have you with us, sir. Thanks so much for joining us.

What did you make of the Azores Summit?

ASHTON CARTER, FMR. ASST. SECY. OF STATE: Well, it was one last chance for the president to get together with those who are already convinced we need to go forward now, explain their reasoning and set up the United Nations today for its one last chance. Hard to believe, though, that anything will happen in New York that will change the course of events over the next week.

ZAHN: It's interesting, "The Wall Street Journal" characterized the Azores Summit as one last chance for Saddam Hussein to disarm, but also one last chance for Jacques Chirac to perhaps cut some sort of compromise. You don't think there's any chance that that's going to happen?

CARTER: He said that he wasn't going to change his mind. He's willing to go with some lengthy timetable, more inspections of the kind we've seen so much of, but nothing like what President Bush seems to have in mind or Tony Blair seems to have in mind, which is a last chance for Saddam Hussein which would mean his fleeing the country, or his giving the kind of information and the kind of cooperation that's been so lacking over the last months.

CARTER: So you could imagine some kind of surprise from Baghdad over the next few days. I don't consider that likely. But it's very hard to imagine any surprises from New York or Paris.

ZAHN: Saddam Hussein making some menacing prediction over weekend, if it comes to war, that he can cause some major damage almost any place in the world. Do you fear that?

CARTER: I actually believe that the campaign will go well in Iraq. If you saw last week the United States requested that Iraqi intelligence agents overseas be expelled from countries to which they are assigned. The Iraqi Intelligence service does not have a great reputation for great competence. So my guess is that there may be a few incidents here and there, but by and large, the action will be in Iraq. And if, as we expect, and certainly as we all hope, this war goes well, and goes quickly, and Saddam Hussein doesn't do anything grotesque in the course of it, things will look different a few weeks from now from the way they look now. It's clear we won't have vindication in the eyes of the world before the fact, but I believe it's very likely we will after the fact, that is when we are successful militarily, but also when we're able to hold up the weapons of mass destruction, the chemical and biological weapons in the aftermath of war, when we're able to display other gruesome aspects of Saddam Hussein's reign, things might look very different a few weeks from now, and the world will say, come to think of it, it had to be done, they did it, they were a little rough about it maybe, but we're glad they did it.

ZAHN: If we end up going to war and the military campaign is successful as we all hope it will be, do you think a month down the road it will very much look like the French made the wrong call?

CARTER: I think it will. I don't think it's at all plausible in anybody's mind, even now, that inspections of the kind the French have long advocate would really work. So I don't think many people believe that. The principle thing motivating people around the world is not real hope for the inspections, but hope that somehow war could be averted, because they fear war will be ugly and gruesome. I hope and I actually anticipate that the war will be quick. I certainly hope it will be accomplished with a minimum of bloodshed, and therefore, those who feared the war beforehand will afterwards ask themselves, what was the basis for my belief that we should keep on with inspections?

ZAHN: Ashton Carter, delighted to have you on the air, first time, I believe this is your first AMERICAN MORNING edition this morning.

CARTER: I think it is. Great pleasure to be here.

ZAHN: Love to have you back. Appreciate your input, a cabinet member during the Clinton administration.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com