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American Morning
U.S. War Planning
Aired March 17, 2003 - 07:47 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: A massive U.S.-led military force is positioned in the Gulf, ready to strike. Secretary of State Colin Powell has some advice for those currently inside Iraq.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
COLIN POWELL, SECRETARY OF STATE: I think it's a dangerous time in Baghdad, and each person in Baghdad, whether a news person, an inspector or in some other capacity, has to take a look at whether or not it is now time to leave.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ZAHN: Joining us now from Chicago to talk about U.S. military strategy and the potential challenges ahead, retired Army Brigadier General David Grange, our own military analyst.
Good morning -- General.
BRIG. GEN. DAVID GRANGE (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Good morning to you.
ZAHN: How many days do you think we're away from war here?
GRANGE: Well, it appears that it's getting closer. I would say maybe next week, the end of next week.
ZAHN: And let's talk a little bit about what Saddam Hussein may have in store for U.S. forces. "The New York Times" reporting this morning that Iraq has actually ringed its capital of Baghdad with more formidable air defenses than anyone ever saw in '91, and that is according to senior American military officials. How concerned should the U.S. and its allies be about that?
GRANGE: Well, I think that coalition forces obviously are concerned about any kind of enemy capabilities, but the reason Saddam pulled everything back in around Baghdad is that he has to conduct a static defense. He cannot maneuver, because once he maneuvers out of, let's say, an urban area or underground facilities, he'll be destroyed by the coalition air or ground forces. So, he can't maneuver. He has to have a static defense.
And anything that's in the no-fly zones, both north and south, would be destroyed, so he has to pull it back in around Baghdad.
ZAHN: So, how formidable will he be in and around Baghdad? GRANGE: Well, I think it will be formidable, but it depends on how much of those forces fold from the pressure, from the initial sorties of both air strikes and, let's say, raids that go in to take out command-and-control facilities and those type of targets. As his units get isolated, they may capitulate, because there is a feeling that there is no hope or they're not getting word from a very centralized type command, and they won't really know what to do.
So, there are going to be some hard pockets of resistance, but I don't think it will be that formidable.
ZAHN: There's also a report in "The New York Times" suggesting that unlike '91 that Saddam Hussein will actually put some of his service representatives in place in the regular army to discourage defections. But you're saying after heavy bombardment, they still may cave?
GRANGE: Well, some of those people that he puts in those locations that are going to try to force soldiers to fight, when it comes to combat, it's pretty hard to force people to fight. They have to want to fight, they have to want to win, or they're going to be ineffective. That type of military does not survive on a battlefield.
ZAHN: How long do you think this war could last...
GRANGE: Well...
ZAHN: ... if it happens?
GRANGE: Yes. If the war happens, I would say two to three weeks for the combat phase. Again, there's so much factors that -- so many factors that are considered in this. But let's say two to three weeks.
But then you have the really difficult part of the post-combat phase of disarming thousands of people, establishing some type of hasty rule of law to fill the vacuum of the Saddam regime capitulating, and then, you know, trying to keep the different factions from fighting each other, other outside countries coming in and trying to influence the outcome.
So, that's really the tough phase, and I think that's where you'll see a surge of more forces, at least temporarily, to make sure that those other things don't happen.
ZAHN: General David Grange, always good to have you on AMERICAN MORNING. Thanks for your time this morning.
GRANGE: My pleasure.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
Aired March 17, 2003 - 07:47 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: A massive U.S.-led military force is positioned in the Gulf, ready to strike. Secretary of State Colin Powell has some advice for those currently inside Iraq.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
COLIN POWELL, SECRETARY OF STATE: I think it's a dangerous time in Baghdad, and each person in Baghdad, whether a news person, an inspector or in some other capacity, has to take a look at whether or not it is now time to leave.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ZAHN: Joining us now from Chicago to talk about U.S. military strategy and the potential challenges ahead, retired Army Brigadier General David Grange, our own military analyst.
Good morning -- General.
BRIG. GEN. DAVID GRANGE (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Good morning to you.
ZAHN: How many days do you think we're away from war here?
GRANGE: Well, it appears that it's getting closer. I would say maybe next week, the end of next week.
ZAHN: And let's talk a little bit about what Saddam Hussein may have in store for U.S. forces. "The New York Times" reporting this morning that Iraq has actually ringed its capital of Baghdad with more formidable air defenses than anyone ever saw in '91, and that is according to senior American military officials. How concerned should the U.S. and its allies be about that?
GRANGE: Well, I think that coalition forces obviously are concerned about any kind of enemy capabilities, but the reason Saddam pulled everything back in around Baghdad is that he has to conduct a static defense. He cannot maneuver, because once he maneuvers out of, let's say, an urban area or underground facilities, he'll be destroyed by the coalition air or ground forces. So, he can't maneuver. He has to have a static defense.
And anything that's in the no-fly zones, both north and south, would be destroyed, so he has to pull it back in around Baghdad.
ZAHN: So, how formidable will he be in and around Baghdad? GRANGE: Well, I think it will be formidable, but it depends on how much of those forces fold from the pressure, from the initial sorties of both air strikes and, let's say, raids that go in to take out command-and-control facilities and those type of targets. As his units get isolated, they may capitulate, because there is a feeling that there is no hope or they're not getting word from a very centralized type command, and they won't really know what to do.
So, there are going to be some hard pockets of resistance, but I don't think it will be that formidable.
ZAHN: There's also a report in "The New York Times" suggesting that unlike '91 that Saddam Hussein will actually put some of his service representatives in place in the regular army to discourage defections. But you're saying after heavy bombardment, they still may cave?
GRANGE: Well, some of those people that he puts in those locations that are going to try to force soldiers to fight, when it comes to combat, it's pretty hard to force people to fight. They have to want to fight, they have to want to win, or they're going to be ineffective. That type of military does not survive on a battlefield.
ZAHN: How long do you think this war could last...
GRANGE: Well...
ZAHN: ... if it happens?
GRANGE: Yes. If the war happens, I would say two to three weeks for the combat phase. Again, there's so much factors that -- so many factors that are considered in this. But let's say two to three weeks.
But then you have the really difficult part of the post-combat phase of disarming thousands of people, establishing some type of hasty rule of law to fill the vacuum of the Saddam regime capitulating, and then, you know, trying to keep the different factions from fighting each other, other outside countries coming in and trying to influence the outcome.
So, that's really the tough phase, and I think that's where you'll see a surge of more forces, at least temporarily, to make sure that those other things don't happen.
ZAHN: General David Grange, always good to have you on AMERICAN MORNING. Thanks for your time this morning.
GRANGE: My pleasure.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
