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American Morning
Interview with Michael Elliot
Aired March 17, 2003 - 07:18 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: The U.N. will consider whether to pull weapons inspectors from Iraq on the advice of the United States government overnight. And President Bush and the leaders of Britain and Spain have left no doubt that the time for diplomacy is running out. They are giving the U.N. Security Council until the end of today to decide on authorizing force against Iraq.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TONY BLAIR, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: So now we have reached the point of decision, and we make a final appeal for there to be that strong, unified message on behalf of the international community that lays down a clear ultimatum to Saddam that authorizes force if he continues to defy the will of the whole of the international community set out in 1441.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ZAHN: Joining us now to talk about today's final day of diplomacy and just how close we might be to war, Michael Elliot, "TIME" magazine editor-at-large.
Good morning. Thanks so much for being with us.
MICHAEL ELLIOT, "TIME" MAGAZINE EDITOR-AT-LARGE: Good morning, Paula.
ZAHN: Is there anything that you think can come out of the U.N. today that would stop war?
ELLIOT: I doubt it. I don't think anything will come out of the meetings in New York today. But I think there are still a couple of shoes that could unexpectedly drop this week.
ZAHN: For example. Saddam Hussein...
ELLIOT: For example, Saddam Hussein could decide to leave. He could...
ZAHN: Now what's the likelihood of that happening?
ELLIOT: I think the likelihood of that is small, minimal perhaps. I think if he decides to go into exile, it's actually more likely to come after a very intensive bombing campaign, where he just throws up his hands and says, I'm out of here. I think that's only of a minimal chance, too, but I think it could happen.
The other thing that could happen is he could say, here's all of my weapons. I think that's unlikely, too. There could be a peace initiative. There could be the president of France deciding to do something, the president of Russia deciding to do something.
If you think back to 1991, the number of unexpected things that happened in the last few days was extraordinary, and I think we're likely to see something like that this week, but I don't know what it will be.
ZAHN: Given the track the Security Council seems to be on at this hour, what would give you any confidence that you could see a peace initiative grow out of the group, or grow out of any of these players in the Security Council?
ELLIOT: I don't think you can see a peace initiative grow out of a collective decision in the Security Council, because the Security Council is broken. There is a really deep divide now, despite President Chirac's nice and kind and friendly words on CNN yesterday to Christiane. I mean, there is a real divide between the U.S. and France.
And if you look at the American comments yesterday and today, one of the things that they're doing, of course, is now pointing not just to Iraq; they're pointing to Paris.
(CROSSTALK)
ZAHN: That seemed to be...
ELLIOT: Absolutely, they're saying, they let us down...
ZAHN: ... the very clear message in every single appearance by the administration.
ELLIOT: ... they deliberately misled us, they signed on to Resolution 1441, they didn't really mean it, they never meant it, they want to string this out forever and ever. So, there is a real, real deep divide in the Security Council.
But thinking back to 1991, I don't think that means that it's impossible that someone, perhaps the Russians, perhaps the French on their own, could make one last-minute appeal to try and get Saddam Hussein out of there.
ZAHN: But short of an ultimatum, though...
ELLIOT: Now, I have no information on this...
ZAHN: Short of an ultimatum...
ELLIOT: Right.
ZAHN: ... what is it the rest of the Security Council would buy? ELLIOT: You have to -- you have to assume that somewhere in Saddam Hussein's skull is a deep realization that this is it, that he's not going to win, that he's not going to be able to stand up against the might of military power, and that he has literally hours, you know, maybe three days, maybe four days, to save his skin...
ZAHN: You don't think he's got that message yet?
ELLIOT: Well, he's a guy who seems to take a long time to get the message, and maybe it will only be at the very, very last minute, you know, when the bombs start falling or the planes start flying off the aircraft carriers that he really gets the message that President Bush is serious.
You know, one of the things that people have often said about Saddam Hussein is that he doesnt make the rational calculations that most politicians do. You know, he's not really kind of connected with world affairs. He kind of sits in Baghdad, he's got toadies and flunkies who are the only people to talk to him, and you know, he may simply have miscalculated about how serious George Bush is. Well, he's going to find out he's made a mistake, I think.
ZAHN: But up until this point, the strategy has kind of worked for him, has it not?
ELLIOT: The strategy has worked very well. The strategy has worked very well. And of course, what is really horrible is that he may think that the strategy can continue working even after a war starts. In other words, to put it bluntly, if he kills enough young American and British boys and girls, that there will be a backlash against the whole idea of war here in Britain, and he'll save his skin again. I think that's, you know, unlikely. The chance of that happening (UNINTELLIGIBLE), but that may be his calculation and that, of course, is really scary.
ZAHN: Michael Elliot, it is, but there are a lot of scary scenarios to ponder at this hour.
ELLIOT: We've got a tough week.
ZAHN: Appreciate your dropping by.
ELLIOT: You bet.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
Aired March 17, 2003 - 07:18 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: The U.N. will consider whether to pull weapons inspectors from Iraq on the advice of the United States government overnight. And President Bush and the leaders of Britain and Spain have left no doubt that the time for diplomacy is running out. They are giving the U.N. Security Council until the end of today to decide on authorizing force against Iraq.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TONY BLAIR, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: So now we have reached the point of decision, and we make a final appeal for there to be that strong, unified message on behalf of the international community that lays down a clear ultimatum to Saddam that authorizes force if he continues to defy the will of the whole of the international community set out in 1441.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ZAHN: Joining us now to talk about today's final day of diplomacy and just how close we might be to war, Michael Elliot, "TIME" magazine editor-at-large.
Good morning. Thanks so much for being with us.
MICHAEL ELLIOT, "TIME" MAGAZINE EDITOR-AT-LARGE: Good morning, Paula.
ZAHN: Is there anything that you think can come out of the U.N. today that would stop war?
ELLIOT: I doubt it. I don't think anything will come out of the meetings in New York today. But I think there are still a couple of shoes that could unexpectedly drop this week.
ZAHN: For example. Saddam Hussein...
ELLIOT: For example, Saddam Hussein could decide to leave. He could...
ZAHN: Now what's the likelihood of that happening?
ELLIOT: I think the likelihood of that is small, minimal perhaps. I think if he decides to go into exile, it's actually more likely to come after a very intensive bombing campaign, where he just throws up his hands and says, I'm out of here. I think that's only of a minimal chance, too, but I think it could happen.
The other thing that could happen is he could say, here's all of my weapons. I think that's unlikely, too. There could be a peace initiative. There could be the president of France deciding to do something, the president of Russia deciding to do something.
If you think back to 1991, the number of unexpected things that happened in the last few days was extraordinary, and I think we're likely to see something like that this week, but I don't know what it will be.
ZAHN: Given the track the Security Council seems to be on at this hour, what would give you any confidence that you could see a peace initiative grow out of the group, or grow out of any of these players in the Security Council?
ELLIOT: I don't think you can see a peace initiative grow out of a collective decision in the Security Council, because the Security Council is broken. There is a really deep divide now, despite President Chirac's nice and kind and friendly words on CNN yesterday to Christiane. I mean, there is a real divide between the U.S. and France.
And if you look at the American comments yesterday and today, one of the things that they're doing, of course, is now pointing not just to Iraq; they're pointing to Paris.
(CROSSTALK)
ZAHN: That seemed to be...
ELLIOT: Absolutely, they're saying, they let us down...
ZAHN: ... the very clear message in every single appearance by the administration.
ELLIOT: ... they deliberately misled us, they signed on to Resolution 1441, they didn't really mean it, they never meant it, they want to string this out forever and ever. So, there is a real, real deep divide in the Security Council.
But thinking back to 1991, I don't think that means that it's impossible that someone, perhaps the Russians, perhaps the French on their own, could make one last-minute appeal to try and get Saddam Hussein out of there.
ZAHN: But short of an ultimatum, though...
ELLIOT: Now, I have no information on this...
ZAHN: Short of an ultimatum...
ELLIOT: Right.
ZAHN: ... what is it the rest of the Security Council would buy? ELLIOT: You have to -- you have to assume that somewhere in Saddam Hussein's skull is a deep realization that this is it, that he's not going to win, that he's not going to be able to stand up against the might of military power, and that he has literally hours, you know, maybe three days, maybe four days, to save his skin...
ZAHN: You don't think he's got that message yet?
ELLIOT: Well, he's a guy who seems to take a long time to get the message, and maybe it will only be at the very, very last minute, you know, when the bombs start falling or the planes start flying off the aircraft carriers that he really gets the message that President Bush is serious.
You know, one of the things that people have often said about Saddam Hussein is that he doesnt make the rational calculations that most politicians do. You know, he's not really kind of connected with world affairs. He kind of sits in Baghdad, he's got toadies and flunkies who are the only people to talk to him, and you know, he may simply have miscalculated about how serious George Bush is. Well, he's going to find out he's made a mistake, I think.
ZAHN: But up until this point, the strategy has kind of worked for him, has it not?
ELLIOT: The strategy has worked very well. The strategy has worked very well. And of course, what is really horrible is that he may think that the strategy can continue working even after a war starts. In other words, to put it bluntly, if he kills enough young American and British boys and girls, that there will be a backlash against the whole idea of war here in Britain, and he'll save his skin again. I think that's, you know, unlikely. The chance of that happening (UNINTELLIGIBLE), but that may be his calculation and that, of course, is really scary.
ZAHN: Michael Elliot, it is, but there are a lot of scary scenarios to ponder at this hour.
ELLIOT: We've got a tough week.
ZAHN: Appreciate your dropping by.
ELLIOT: You bet.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
