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American Morning
How Iraqis Are Reacting to Bush's Ultimatum
Aired March 18, 2003 - 08:01 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Time to check in with Bill Hemmer, who is standing by in Kuwait City. Actually, we're going to go to him in a couple minutes.
Before we get to him -- oh, hi, Bill. I'll say good morning to you anyway.
I'm going to go on...
BILL HEMMER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Paula.
ZAHN: ... Bill, to a couple of headlines then I'm going to come back to you.
A few other developments from around the world now, all regarding Iraq. British Prime Minister Tony Blair is facing a very tough sales job at home as he tries to get his own ruling party to back war against Iraq. Three ministers -- actually, it's one minister in his government has resigned and two aides in protest. There is a movement in the Turkish parliament to support the U.S. war effort. It remains to be seen if that will translate into permission for U.S. troops and military planes to travel through Turkey on its way to Iraq. And precautions are now being taken in Israel. Citizens there are being told to prepare sealed rooms in their homes to provide safety in the event of a chemical attack.
Now, we get to go back to Bill in Kuwait City -- good morning, Bill.
HEMMER: Paula, hello again.
Getting word, eyewitness accounts along Highway 80, which is the main highway that runs north into Iraq. Just several hours ago large convoys described as hundreds of military vehicles on the move, headed north along Highway 80. Getting the word a couple hours ago here in Kuwait City.
Meanwhile, Kuwait a much different city now and a much different country from 12 years ago, when the invasion of Iraq occurred in August of 1990. Paula, a much more fortified country. In fact, they've gone to great lengths right now to prepare their own people in the event of attack. They've put out a siren system -- I have a tape recording of all three sirens -- that essentially will alert Kuwaitis here. The first is an intermittent signal that signals that danger is on the way or danger is coming. The second one is a more sustained, long siren that would indicate that danger is present and at hand. Then the third in this series is essentially a sustained signal that lets you know the all clear and danger has been averted.
Military experts on the U.S. side right now are very concerned about the possibility within the next day or two of some sort of preemptive attack by the Iraqis, either here in Kuwait City or on the U.S. military who are working and now stationed out in the Kuwaiti desert. Experts and planners here in Kuwait City say there's a 90 percent chance right now that some sort of attack could come here in Kuwait City, but the chances for any direct hit are said to be very, very small.
Much more in a bit, Paula -- back to you now in New York.
OK, in the meantime, before we get back to New York, let's get you to Washington, D.C.
Suzanne Malveaux is stationed outside on the front lawn. Again, the heavy words last night from the president in the East Room.
Suzanne, good morning.
What are they saying so far today?
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Bill.
Well, in the words of the White House, the tyrant will soon be gone. It is no surprise to White House officials that Saddam Hussein would reject this ultimatum. President Bush today meeting with his top advisers. Already here at the White House, we saw National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice, the vice president, as well as the head of the CIA, George Tenet, and as well as Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge.
The message here today is that they are trying to sell this war. They believe that they have the backing of Congress. They want to try to keep that coalition of the willing together. The president's message very clear here, that it is such a threat from Saddam Hussein, from Iraq, that the U.S. must strike first.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The regime has a history of reckless aggression in the Middle East. It has a deep hatred of America and our friends. And it has aided, trained and harbored terrorists, including operatives of al Qaeda. The danger is clear. Using chemical, biological or one day nuclear weapons, obtained with the help of Iraq, the terrorists could fulfill their stated ambitions and kill thousands or hundreds of thousands of innocent people in our country or any other.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MALVEAUX: Now, Bill, the U.S. could strike as early as Wednesday, eight o'clock in the evening Eastern Standard Time. We are told the next time we are going to see the president in public, he will be in the Oval Office addressing the American people after he has authorized the use of force -- Bill. HEMMER: Suzanne, quickly, security at the White House, any note in changes there?
MALVEAUX: Well, absolutely. This morning already the White House press corps, we had to show our badges a block away before approaching the White House grounds. That is certainly a change. We have also seen barricades around White House, the perimeter, the buffer around the White House extended on Pennsylvania Avenue. Also, members of Secret Service with gas masks outside. Clearly, there has been a ratcheting up of the security measures here at the White House and in the surrounding grounds.
HEMMER: Suzanne Malveaux from the White House.
Many thanks to you, Suzanne.
You mentioned that deadline, 8:00 p.m. Wednesday night, 8:00 p.m. Eastern time. That puts you about four o'clock in the morning, 4:00 a.m. in Baghdad Thursday morning -- back to New York now and he's Paula.
ZAHN: Thanks, Bill.
For more now on the ultimatum and how Iraqis are reacting to that, let's go to Nic Robertson, who's standing by in Baghdad -- Nic, I understand now there is an official reaction from the Iraqi government.
What have you heard?
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Indeed, that reaction is coming from a meeting between President Saddam Hussein and the meeting of the top leaders of the Revolutionary Command Council and the ruling Baath Party here describing President Bush's ultimatum as "reckless" and denouncing it. Also saying that President Bush had a sick hope that he could take over Iraq without having to fight for it.
The ruling party said that only Iraq could determine Iraq's future. This is the first time we've heard an announcement from the government to President Bush's deadline.
Also, we have heard from President Saddam Hussein's eldest son, Uday Saddam Hussein, who said that it was President Bush and his family that should leave office and also saying that anyone who attacked Iraq would certainly regret ever doing so.
ZAHN: So, Nic, what other signs do you see that the Iraqi population is getting ready for the prospect of war?
ROBERTSON: We see a lot of signs here, Paula. We see, for example, there are many, there are far fewer cars on the streets here. We see cars going by that are packed full of people and possessions, apparently leaving the city. People here seem in a far more somber and serious mood. And when one walks around the streets, instead of the customary smiles that one normally gets here, people look a lot firmer, particularly, it seems to me, at least towards Western reporters or at least foreigners at this time.
Also, when you look around the shops in this city, most of them are already closed, most of them are locked up. The shutters are down and they, and people say that the store keepers have taken all their goods away -- Paula.
ZAHN: Nic, for those folks who can afford to get out of Baghdad, where are they heading where they think they're going to be safe?
ROBERTSON: Well, some people will go to the countryside. There are about five million people that live in Baghdad. Many of them have roots with family in the countryside. Many of them will leave and perhaps go back to tribal villages.
However, if people have a little more money, what they've been trying to do is to leave the country. Many, many of the rich here tried to send their families to Syria to sit out the war. But the vast majority, it has to be said, the vast majority of people are still in Baghdad. They are extremely worried about what's going to happen, not just about the bombing. They know that that's a very big threat. But they're worried about the possibility of chaos, the possibility of civil disorder. They really don't know what's going to happen and they are extremely, extremely concerned at this time.
ZAHN: Nic Robertson reporting from Baghdad for us this morning.
Thanks so much.
We'll get back to you a little bit later on this morning.
(NEWS ALERT AND WEATHER)
ZAHN: Earlier, there were reports from Cairo that the head of the Arab League was going to Baghdad today, possibly to look for a way out of the coming war. Now, apparently that trip has been postponed.
Joining us now is someone who can shed some light on all of this, Ambassador Yahya Mahmassani, the Arab League ambassador to the U.N.
It's an honor to have you with us.
Welcome, sir.
AMB. YAHYA MAHMASSANI, ARAB LEAGUE AMBASSADOR TO U.N.: Thank you.
ZAHN: Why was the trip postponed?
MAHMASSANI: Well, it was postponed actually because it's up to the Iraqis to receive the secretary general, Amr Moussa. But then on the whole you must understand that the secretary general has been trying to utilize every last second of every last minute to avoid war on Iraq. And his mission would have been, in fact, within the framework of the decisions of the Arab summit as well as the decisions of the Security Council.
ZAHN: What does that mean? What kind of message did he have for Saddam Hussein if he had ever gotten to Baghdad?
MAHMASSANI: Well, I don't think exactly there was a definite message, but it was an attempt, actually, to avoid the war. What Amr Moussa has said to the Iraqi officials is something I can't at this moment tell you, but -- because I'm not aware, actually, what the main message is, if there is a message. But I can only say that the trip would have, the visit would have been within the framework of the Arab summit decisions, as well as the Security Council decisions.
ZAHN: All right, you're forcing me to read between the lines here. Do you think he would have promoted the idea of exile at this eleventh hour juncture?
MAHMASSANI: Well, the Arab summit resolutions and the Security Council resolutions do not dwell on the regime change. This is something that we must underline. It is mainly to avoid war through inspections or doing something dramatic regarding the inspections. But definitely neither the decision of the Arab summit nor the Security Council resolution, in fact, deal with regime change.
ZAHN: Does that mean that the Arab League, then, reluctantly came to the same conclusion Hans Blix did in one of his first reports, where he basically said Saddam Hussein, you have not come clean on anthrax and V.X. nerve agent?
MAHMASSANI: You know, Paula, if you look at the last report by Hans Blix, it was very, very positive. He did say, mention, for the first time Iraq is proactive. Now, Iraq has been destroying the missiles, al-Samoud 2. Iraq has been destroying lethal weapons. And it has recently presented Hans Blix with a number of documents he had required.
But let me say here one thing...
ZAHN: But the first report was far more critical.
MAHMASSANI: Well, the first report was actually saying that there was not enough cooperation, but it was progressing. Now, let me say here one thing (UNINTELLIGIBLE). What was so urgent, what is so imminent danger to Iraq that you have to invade Iraq now and occupy it? Why didn't diplomacy succeed? Why did diplomacy fail? If the administration, the American administration, had acquiesced to the last minute effort to give just one more month to give the inspectors a chance -- this is what they wanted -- you would have saved a lot of lives, a lot of destruction.
ZAHN: The argument, of course, on the administration's point is this wouldn't have been the second resolution that had been voted on in the U.N., this would be the 18th resolution and they've been waiting for 12 years for...
MAHMASSANI: The second...
ZAHN: ... Saddam Hussein to comply.
MAHMASSANI: That's right, 12 years and nothing happened. He didn't attack anybody. He didn't invade anyone. He was contained. One more month and we would have avoided this disaster. You know, wars are not natural disasters. Wars are manmade disasters. One month, it would have made a big difference in history.
ZAHN: Ambassador Mahmassani, one final question for you this morning. I know you said that you're not at liberty to tell us what the Arab League secretary might have told Saddam Hussein if he had made it to Baghdad. Do you think that exile is an option that Saddam Hussein would ever seriously consider now when he knows that the first bombs may drop as soon as 36 hours?
MAHMASSANI: This is a decision up to the Iraqi leadership, up to Saddam Hussein. And I think...
ZAHN: But you can, you're familiar enough with this guy to know how he might react to it.
MAHMASSANI: I think...
ZAHN: So far he's rejected the ultimatum.
MAHMASSANI: Yes. As you said it, he has rejected it. But let me say again, this war could have been avoided if some genuine effort were made at the last minute.
ZAHN: Ambassador Mahmassani, always good to see you.
Thank you so much for dropping by and sharing your perspective with us.
MAHMASSANI: Thank you. Thank you.
COMMERCIAL
ZAHN: President Bush is giving Saddam Hussein 48 hours to leave Iraq or face war. We hear from the Iraqis that under no circumstances will they accept that ultimatum. But it appears that most Americans support the president's ultimatum. In a flash poll taken after last night's speech, two thirds said they support the decision to go to war if the Iraqi leader doesn't leave.
Joining us right now from Boston with more reaction to the president's speech, David Gergen, former White House adviser, now professor at Harvard Kennedy's School of Government.
David, good morning.
Thanks so much for joining us.
DAVID GERGEN, FORMER WHITE HOUSE ADVISER: Good morning, Paula. Thank you.
ZAHN: You have a number of concerns about what the president said in his speech. First off, I know that you feel very strongly about what you call the train wreck at the U.N.
What are the long-term consequences of that for the president?
GERGEN: Well, I do think that it's extremely disappointing to the administration and to all of us that we had a diplomatic failure at the U.N. that involved so many countries. And it puts the war itself into such a different context from what we, as Americans, have normally thought. This war is distinguished from past wars by two things.
One, it is a preemptive war on our part and so declared. We haven't been struck. We are going to strike before they strike us. The president made it plain last night that this is going to be the new face of warfare.
And, secondly, we have gone into past wars with a much bigger alliance behind us and typically with support from the nations that make up the United Nations. And this time, of course, we go in without having obtained that. And that, I think, has given pause to some people. The vast majority of the American people, as your polls showed, will rally around the president, will rally around our troops in particular. But I think there is going to be a substantial body of people who are also going to be, go into this with great misgivings. And I think that also leaves questions about the future of the United Nations, its utility as an institution, will it fall back and become a League of Nations, which ultimately failed and left the world vulnerable to the outbreak of the Second World War.
ZAHN: You just pointed to some of the misgivings some Americans might have right now about the overall mission in Iraq. And yet I think it's interesting to note when it comes to concerns about this preemptive doctrine that will be exercised that 68 percent say the U.S. has done basically all it can do diplomatically. That as compared to 54 percent in February.
Does that mean the president effectively convinced the American public that he did, indeed, exhaust all the possibilities?
GERGEN: Well, the fact that he did go to the U.N. originally, I think, was hailed by most Americans, because the majority of Americans do like to work with the U.N. approval, U.N. sanction. And I think the fact that it went on for four and a half months left many Americans and, in fact, your poll says that two thirds of Americans feel now that that was ample time. And that's why I think the president is going to go into this war with a strong hand at home, not as strong as his father had in 1991, but a strong hand.
He will also go into the war with a substantial amount of opposition from overseas. It wasn't just the French, after all. It was also the fact that there are large bodies and large majorities in other countries which oppose this war.
So this is different. It raises the stakes. It does not, you know, the president has made a strong case for the, why this is a just and necessary war and I think most Americans are going to salute that rationale. But I don't find that there's a lot of cheering about this. I think most Americans are going into this sort of a grim sense that this is necessary, let's do it, let's support the president, and we just hope it comes out well, that the Americans, you know, we have very, very few American casualties, that this is quick, successful and that we can come out of this with finding the weapons of mass destruction and minimizing Iraqi casualties.
Those are all lofty, those are lofty goals. They're going to be hard to get to. But I think most Americans would support those goals now.
ZAHN: David, when you talk about the substantial amount of opposition the president faces overseas, he seemed to confront that when he had this to say about the murky legal arena in which the administration is operating.
Let's listen to what the president said.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Before the day of horror can come, before it is too late to act, this danger will be removed. The United States of America has the sovereign authority to use force in assuring its own national security. That duty falls to me, as commander-in-chief, by the oath I have sworn, by the oath I will keep.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ZAHN: The president obviously is convinced he has the legal authority to go to war without the second resolution or what some say would have been the 18th resolution if it had gone to vote.
A final thought on that this morning.
GERGEN: Well, I think he does have legal authority to go to war. The question is whether it's prudent to go without the support of others. And I think, the president, you have to understand that this war is going to be seen through very different perspectives, very different lenses by different people. The majority of Americans will think this president is resolute and strong enough to do something that should have been done a long time ago and, indeed, will help to protect us from another 9/11, and that that is to be applauded and let's stand up and salute a man who has the guts to do it.
There are going to be some Americans, a minority, and a large number of people overseas, who will see it as an act of someone who is rigid, who refused to listen, who refused to wait the extra month or two or three it might have taken to get the votes in the United Nations and that this is an act of arrogance by the United States, an act of bullying, and it's going to worry them about A, where the United States is going, and B, about what precedents it sets for what we do next when the prime minister of India says we, and as a matter of self-defense, we think Pakistan may be getting ready to hit us, we don't know when and where and why, but we have to do it now, we have to take them out now and we're going to launch an attack on Pakistan.
That is what worries many people in the world and I think we should -- we need to be sensitive to that even as we now, as Americans, stand and say let's support our troops, let's get this done now.
ZAHN: All right, David Gergen, thank you very much for dropping by this morning.
GERGEN: Thank you.
ZAHN: Appreciate your time.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired March 18, 2003 - 08:01 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Time to check in with Bill Hemmer, who is standing by in Kuwait City. Actually, we're going to go to him in a couple minutes.
Before we get to him -- oh, hi, Bill. I'll say good morning to you anyway.
I'm going to go on...
BILL HEMMER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Paula.
ZAHN: ... Bill, to a couple of headlines then I'm going to come back to you.
A few other developments from around the world now, all regarding Iraq. British Prime Minister Tony Blair is facing a very tough sales job at home as he tries to get his own ruling party to back war against Iraq. Three ministers -- actually, it's one minister in his government has resigned and two aides in protest. There is a movement in the Turkish parliament to support the U.S. war effort. It remains to be seen if that will translate into permission for U.S. troops and military planes to travel through Turkey on its way to Iraq. And precautions are now being taken in Israel. Citizens there are being told to prepare sealed rooms in their homes to provide safety in the event of a chemical attack.
Now, we get to go back to Bill in Kuwait City -- good morning, Bill.
HEMMER: Paula, hello again.
Getting word, eyewitness accounts along Highway 80, which is the main highway that runs north into Iraq. Just several hours ago large convoys described as hundreds of military vehicles on the move, headed north along Highway 80. Getting the word a couple hours ago here in Kuwait City.
Meanwhile, Kuwait a much different city now and a much different country from 12 years ago, when the invasion of Iraq occurred in August of 1990. Paula, a much more fortified country. In fact, they've gone to great lengths right now to prepare their own people in the event of attack. They've put out a siren system -- I have a tape recording of all three sirens -- that essentially will alert Kuwaitis here. The first is an intermittent signal that signals that danger is on the way or danger is coming. The second one is a more sustained, long siren that would indicate that danger is present and at hand. Then the third in this series is essentially a sustained signal that lets you know the all clear and danger has been averted.
Military experts on the U.S. side right now are very concerned about the possibility within the next day or two of some sort of preemptive attack by the Iraqis, either here in Kuwait City or on the U.S. military who are working and now stationed out in the Kuwaiti desert. Experts and planners here in Kuwait City say there's a 90 percent chance right now that some sort of attack could come here in Kuwait City, but the chances for any direct hit are said to be very, very small.
Much more in a bit, Paula -- back to you now in New York.
OK, in the meantime, before we get back to New York, let's get you to Washington, D.C.
Suzanne Malveaux is stationed outside on the front lawn. Again, the heavy words last night from the president in the East Room.
Suzanne, good morning.
What are they saying so far today?
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Bill.
Well, in the words of the White House, the tyrant will soon be gone. It is no surprise to White House officials that Saddam Hussein would reject this ultimatum. President Bush today meeting with his top advisers. Already here at the White House, we saw National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice, the vice president, as well as the head of the CIA, George Tenet, and as well as Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge.
The message here today is that they are trying to sell this war. They believe that they have the backing of Congress. They want to try to keep that coalition of the willing together. The president's message very clear here, that it is such a threat from Saddam Hussein, from Iraq, that the U.S. must strike first.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The regime has a history of reckless aggression in the Middle East. It has a deep hatred of America and our friends. And it has aided, trained and harbored terrorists, including operatives of al Qaeda. The danger is clear. Using chemical, biological or one day nuclear weapons, obtained with the help of Iraq, the terrorists could fulfill their stated ambitions and kill thousands or hundreds of thousands of innocent people in our country or any other.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MALVEAUX: Now, Bill, the U.S. could strike as early as Wednesday, eight o'clock in the evening Eastern Standard Time. We are told the next time we are going to see the president in public, he will be in the Oval Office addressing the American people after he has authorized the use of force -- Bill. HEMMER: Suzanne, quickly, security at the White House, any note in changes there?
MALVEAUX: Well, absolutely. This morning already the White House press corps, we had to show our badges a block away before approaching the White House grounds. That is certainly a change. We have also seen barricades around White House, the perimeter, the buffer around the White House extended on Pennsylvania Avenue. Also, members of Secret Service with gas masks outside. Clearly, there has been a ratcheting up of the security measures here at the White House and in the surrounding grounds.
HEMMER: Suzanne Malveaux from the White House.
Many thanks to you, Suzanne.
You mentioned that deadline, 8:00 p.m. Wednesday night, 8:00 p.m. Eastern time. That puts you about four o'clock in the morning, 4:00 a.m. in Baghdad Thursday morning -- back to New York now and he's Paula.
ZAHN: Thanks, Bill.
For more now on the ultimatum and how Iraqis are reacting to that, let's go to Nic Robertson, who's standing by in Baghdad -- Nic, I understand now there is an official reaction from the Iraqi government.
What have you heard?
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Indeed, that reaction is coming from a meeting between President Saddam Hussein and the meeting of the top leaders of the Revolutionary Command Council and the ruling Baath Party here describing President Bush's ultimatum as "reckless" and denouncing it. Also saying that President Bush had a sick hope that he could take over Iraq without having to fight for it.
The ruling party said that only Iraq could determine Iraq's future. This is the first time we've heard an announcement from the government to President Bush's deadline.
Also, we have heard from President Saddam Hussein's eldest son, Uday Saddam Hussein, who said that it was President Bush and his family that should leave office and also saying that anyone who attacked Iraq would certainly regret ever doing so.
ZAHN: So, Nic, what other signs do you see that the Iraqi population is getting ready for the prospect of war?
ROBERTSON: We see a lot of signs here, Paula. We see, for example, there are many, there are far fewer cars on the streets here. We see cars going by that are packed full of people and possessions, apparently leaving the city. People here seem in a far more somber and serious mood. And when one walks around the streets, instead of the customary smiles that one normally gets here, people look a lot firmer, particularly, it seems to me, at least towards Western reporters or at least foreigners at this time.
Also, when you look around the shops in this city, most of them are already closed, most of them are locked up. The shutters are down and they, and people say that the store keepers have taken all their goods away -- Paula.
ZAHN: Nic, for those folks who can afford to get out of Baghdad, where are they heading where they think they're going to be safe?
ROBERTSON: Well, some people will go to the countryside. There are about five million people that live in Baghdad. Many of them have roots with family in the countryside. Many of them will leave and perhaps go back to tribal villages.
However, if people have a little more money, what they've been trying to do is to leave the country. Many, many of the rich here tried to send their families to Syria to sit out the war. But the vast majority, it has to be said, the vast majority of people are still in Baghdad. They are extremely worried about what's going to happen, not just about the bombing. They know that that's a very big threat. But they're worried about the possibility of chaos, the possibility of civil disorder. They really don't know what's going to happen and they are extremely, extremely concerned at this time.
ZAHN: Nic Robertson reporting from Baghdad for us this morning.
Thanks so much.
We'll get back to you a little bit later on this morning.
(NEWS ALERT AND WEATHER)
ZAHN: Earlier, there were reports from Cairo that the head of the Arab League was going to Baghdad today, possibly to look for a way out of the coming war. Now, apparently that trip has been postponed.
Joining us now is someone who can shed some light on all of this, Ambassador Yahya Mahmassani, the Arab League ambassador to the U.N.
It's an honor to have you with us.
Welcome, sir.
AMB. YAHYA MAHMASSANI, ARAB LEAGUE AMBASSADOR TO U.N.: Thank you.
ZAHN: Why was the trip postponed?
MAHMASSANI: Well, it was postponed actually because it's up to the Iraqis to receive the secretary general, Amr Moussa. But then on the whole you must understand that the secretary general has been trying to utilize every last second of every last minute to avoid war on Iraq. And his mission would have been, in fact, within the framework of the decisions of the Arab summit as well as the decisions of the Security Council.
ZAHN: What does that mean? What kind of message did he have for Saddam Hussein if he had ever gotten to Baghdad?
MAHMASSANI: Well, I don't think exactly there was a definite message, but it was an attempt, actually, to avoid the war. What Amr Moussa has said to the Iraqi officials is something I can't at this moment tell you, but -- because I'm not aware, actually, what the main message is, if there is a message. But I can only say that the trip would have, the visit would have been within the framework of the Arab summit decisions, as well as the Security Council decisions.
ZAHN: All right, you're forcing me to read between the lines here. Do you think he would have promoted the idea of exile at this eleventh hour juncture?
MAHMASSANI: Well, the Arab summit resolutions and the Security Council resolutions do not dwell on the regime change. This is something that we must underline. It is mainly to avoid war through inspections or doing something dramatic regarding the inspections. But definitely neither the decision of the Arab summit nor the Security Council resolution, in fact, deal with regime change.
ZAHN: Does that mean that the Arab League, then, reluctantly came to the same conclusion Hans Blix did in one of his first reports, where he basically said Saddam Hussein, you have not come clean on anthrax and V.X. nerve agent?
MAHMASSANI: You know, Paula, if you look at the last report by Hans Blix, it was very, very positive. He did say, mention, for the first time Iraq is proactive. Now, Iraq has been destroying the missiles, al-Samoud 2. Iraq has been destroying lethal weapons. And it has recently presented Hans Blix with a number of documents he had required.
But let me say here one thing...
ZAHN: But the first report was far more critical.
MAHMASSANI: Well, the first report was actually saying that there was not enough cooperation, but it was progressing. Now, let me say here one thing (UNINTELLIGIBLE). What was so urgent, what is so imminent danger to Iraq that you have to invade Iraq now and occupy it? Why didn't diplomacy succeed? Why did diplomacy fail? If the administration, the American administration, had acquiesced to the last minute effort to give just one more month to give the inspectors a chance -- this is what they wanted -- you would have saved a lot of lives, a lot of destruction.
ZAHN: The argument, of course, on the administration's point is this wouldn't have been the second resolution that had been voted on in the U.N., this would be the 18th resolution and they've been waiting for 12 years for...
MAHMASSANI: The second...
ZAHN: ... Saddam Hussein to comply.
MAHMASSANI: That's right, 12 years and nothing happened. He didn't attack anybody. He didn't invade anyone. He was contained. One more month and we would have avoided this disaster. You know, wars are not natural disasters. Wars are manmade disasters. One month, it would have made a big difference in history.
ZAHN: Ambassador Mahmassani, one final question for you this morning. I know you said that you're not at liberty to tell us what the Arab League secretary might have told Saddam Hussein if he had made it to Baghdad. Do you think that exile is an option that Saddam Hussein would ever seriously consider now when he knows that the first bombs may drop as soon as 36 hours?
MAHMASSANI: This is a decision up to the Iraqi leadership, up to Saddam Hussein. And I think...
ZAHN: But you can, you're familiar enough with this guy to know how he might react to it.
MAHMASSANI: I think...
ZAHN: So far he's rejected the ultimatum.
MAHMASSANI: Yes. As you said it, he has rejected it. But let me say again, this war could have been avoided if some genuine effort were made at the last minute.
ZAHN: Ambassador Mahmassani, always good to see you.
Thank you so much for dropping by and sharing your perspective with us.
MAHMASSANI: Thank you. Thank you.
COMMERCIAL
ZAHN: President Bush is giving Saddam Hussein 48 hours to leave Iraq or face war. We hear from the Iraqis that under no circumstances will they accept that ultimatum. But it appears that most Americans support the president's ultimatum. In a flash poll taken after last night's speech, two thirds said they support the decision to go to war if the Iraqi leader doesn't leave.
Joining us right now from Boston with more reaction to the president's speech, David Gergen, former White House adviser, now professor at Harvard Kennedy's School of Government.
David, good morning.
Thanks so much for joining us.
DAVID GERGEN, FORMER WHITE HOUSE ADVISER: Good morning, Paula. Thank you.
ZAHN: You have a number of concerns about what the president said in his speech. First off, I know that you feel very strongly about what you call the train wreck at the U.N.
What are the long-term consequences of that for the president?
GERGEN: Well, I do think that it's extremely disappointing to the administration and to all of us that we had a diplomatic failure at the U.N. that involved so many countries. And it puts the war itself into such a different context from what we, as Americans, have normally thought. This war is distinguished from past wars by two things.
One, it is a preemptive war on our part and so declared. We haven't been struck. We are going to strike before they strike us. The president made it plain last night that this is going to be the new face of warfare.
And, secondly, we have gone into past wars with a much bigger alliance behind us and typically with support from the nations that make up the United Nations. And this time, of course, we go in without having obtained that. And that, I think, has given pause to some people. The vast majority of the American people, as your polls showed, will rally around the president, will rally around our troops in particular. But I think there is going to be a substantial body of people who are also going to be, go into this with great misgivings. And I think that also leaves questions about the future of the United Nations, its utility as an institution, will it fall back and become a League of Nations, which ultimately failed and left the world vulnerable to the outbreak of the Second World War.
ZAHN: You just pointed to some of the misgivings some Americans might have right now about the overall mission in Iraq. And yet I think it's interesting to note when it comes to concerns about this preemptive doctrine that will be exercised that 68 percent say the U.S. has done basically all it can do diplomatically. That as compared to 54 percent in February.
Does that mean the president effectively convinced the American public that he did, indeed, exhaust all the possibilities?
GERGEN: Well, the fact that he did go to the U.N. originally, I think, was hailed by most Americans, because the majority of Americans do like to work with the U.N. approval, U.N. sanction. And I think the fact that it went on for four and a half months left many Americans and, in fact, your poll says that two thirds of Americans feel now that that was ample time. And that's why I think the president is going to go into this war with a strong hand at home, not as strong as his father had in 1991, but a strong hand.
He will also go into the war with a substantial amount of opposition from overseas. It wasn't just the French, after all. It was also the fact that there are large bodies and large majorities in other countries which oppose this war.
So this is different. It raises the stakes. It does not, you know, the president has made a strong case for the, why this is a just and necessary war and I think most Americans are going to salute that rationale. But I don't find that there's a lot of cheering about this. I think most Americans are going into this sort of a grim sense that this is necessary, let's do it, let's support the president, and we just hope it comes out well, that the Americans, you know, we have very, very few American casualties, that this is quick, successful and that we can come out of this with finding the weapons of mass destruction and minimizing Iraqi casualties.
Those are all lofty, those are lofty goals. They're going to be hard to get to. But I think most Americans would support those goals now.
ZAHN: David, when you talk about the substantial amount of opposition the president faces overseas, he seemed to confront that when he had this to say about the murky legal arena in which the administration is operating.
Let's listen to what the president said.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Before the day of horror can come, before it is too late to act, this danger will be removed. The United States of America has the sovereign authority to use force in assuring its own national security. That duty falls to me, as commander-in-chief, by the oath I have sworn, by the oath I will keep.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ZAHN: The president obviously is convinced he has the legal authority to go to war without the second resolution or what some say would have been the 18th resolution if it had gone to vote.
A final thought on that this morning.
GERGEN: Well, I think he does have legal authority to go to war. The question is whether it's prudent to go without the support of others. And I think, the president, you have to understand that this war is going to be seen through very different perspectives, very different lenses by different people. The majority of Americans will think this president is resolute and strong enough to do something that should have been done a long time ago and, indeed, will help to protect us from another 9/11, and that that is to be applauded and let's stand up and salute a man who has the guts to do it.
There are going to be some Americans, a minority, and a large number of people overseas, who will see it as an act of someone who is rigid, who refused to listen, who refused to wait the extra month or two or three it might have taken to get the votes in the United Nations and that this is an act of arrogance by the United States, an act of bullying, and it's going to worry them about A, where the United States is going, and B, about what precedents it sets for what we do next when the prime minister of India says we, and as a matter of self-defense, we think Pakistan may be getting ready to hit us, we don't know when and where and why, but we have to do it now, we have to take them out now and we're going to launch an attack on Pakistan.
That is what worries many people in the world and I think we should -- we need to be sensitive to that even as we now, as Americans, stand and say let's support our troops, let's get this done now.
ZAHN: All right, David Gergen, thank you very much for dropping by this morning.
GERGEN: Thank you.
ZAHN: Appreciate your time.
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