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American Morning
Analysis With Mideast Expert Fawaz Gerges
Aired April 14, 2003 - 09:37 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Even as stability does eventually return to Iraq, there is concern that ripple effects from the war could destabilize other parts of the Middle East.
Joining us now to discuss the future of the region is Fawaz Gerges of Sarah Lawrence College, an expert on the Middle East.
Welcome back. Good to see you.
What message do you think Syria is getting?
FAWAZ GERGES, MIDEAST EXPERT: Well, I think the Bush administration is exerting considerable pressure on Syria for two reasons.
I think, first, he does not want Syria to provide refuse for fleeing Iraqi leaders; and also, to surrender any leaders who are in the country now.
And secondly, I think the administration is exerting pressure on Syria to dissuade it from undermining the new emerging order in Iraq. And I think what the administration trying to use is what I call a "preemptive diplomatic strategy" that fuses the implied threat of force in order to really change Syria's conduct.
But I think at the end of the day, Paula, there is a qualitative difference between the Syrian situation and the Iraqi situation and American officials at no time have drawn parallels between that of Syria and Iraq. So in this particular sense, we should keep the situation in perspective.
ZAHN: So do you believe this is the right strategy then?
GERGES: Well, I think...
ZAHN: Do you -- sort of de-escalating things without -- I mean, implied military action, in other words.
GERGES: Absolutely because there is a qualitative difference between, I mean, Syria and Iraq. And I think Syrian officials in last few days have made it very clear that they would like to maintain friendly relations with Washington and they have no intention of antagonizing the United States.
In fact, I would argue that unlike the Iraqi counterparts, Syrian leaders know the limits and are willing to apply the brakes. In fact, in moments of crisis, Paula, Syrian leaders have stepped back from the brink. So it's not in Syria's interest to escalate the situation. Syrian leaders are already trying to de-escalate their war of words with United States.
ZAHN: You say that, but do you believe the Syrians aren't holding any former leaders of the Iraqi government?
GERGES: Paula, I would not be surprised if the Syrian leadership does not provide refuge to fleeing Iraqi leaders. After all, if they -- they would not turn away any fleeing Iraqi leaders because that would really go against everything that the current Syrian leadership stands for, particularly -- particularly its pan-Arab nationalist posture. So I would not be surprised if the Syrian leadership does not really provide refuge to fleeing Iraqi leaders.
ZAHN: So how do you imagine Iranians in the government are reacting to these signals, very strong signals, being fired at Syria?
GERGES: Yes, absolutely. Yes, absolutely. I mean, it seems to me, not just the Iranians, but the entire Arab world, because, as I said, I mean -- there is a qualitative, dramatic difference between Syria and Iraq and how the situation is perceived in the Arab world and also in Iran. I think I would most Arab leaders, including -- of course, Iran is not an Arab country -- would basically make it very clear that Syria is a red line.
But I don't think that the situation will escalate to this particular point because I think the Syrian leadership is getting the message. The Syrian leadership is de-escalating its war of words with United States and I believe that I don't think we're going to witness any major, you might say, conflict or confrontation between the United States and Syria. I think at the end of the day the Syria leadership will step back from the brink. And obviously, the United States is using a preemptive diplomatic strategy with the implied threat of force. But I don't think they have made it at all clear they will use force against Syria.
ZAHN: Professor Fawaz Gerges thank you very much for stopping by today. Thanks for your patience.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired April 14, 2003 - 09:37 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Even as stability does eventually return to Iraq, there is concern that ripple effects from the war could destabilize other parts of the Middle East.
Joining us now to discuss the future of the region is Fawaz Gerges of Sarah Lawrence College, an expert on the Middle East.
Welcome back. Good to see you.
What message do you think Syria is getting?
FAWAZ GERGES, MIDEAST EXPERT: Well, I think the Bush administration is exerting considerable pressure on Syria for two reasons.
I think, first, he does not want Syria to provide refuse for fleeing Iraqi leaders; and also, to surrender any leaders who are in the country now.
And secondly, I think the administration is exerting pressure on Syria to dissuade it from undermining the new emerging order in Iraq. And I think what the administration trying to use is what I call a "preemptive diplomatic strategy" that fuses the implied threat of force in order to really change Syria's conduct.
But I think at the end of the day, Paula, there is a qualitative difference between the Syrian situation and the Iraqi situation and American officials at no time have drawn parallels between that of Syria and Iraq. So in this particular sense, we should keep the situation in perspective.
ZAHN: So do you believe this is the right strategy then?
GERGES: Well, I think...
ZAHN: Do you -- sort of de-escalating things without -- I mean, implied military action, in other words.
GERGES: Absolutely because there is a qualitative difference between, I mean, Syria and Iraq. And I think Syrian officials in last few days have made it very clear that they would like to maintain friendly relations with Washington and they have no intention of antagonizing the United States.
In fact, I would argue that unlike the Iraqi counterparts, Syrian leaders know the limits and are willing to apply the brakes. In fact, in moments of crisis, Paula, Syrian leaders have stepped back from the brink. So it's not in Syria's interest to escalate the situation. Syrian leaders are already trying to de-escalate their war of words with United States.
ZAHN: You say that, but do you believe the Syrians aren't holding any former leaders of the Iraqi government?
GERGES: Paula, I would not be surprised if the Syrian leadership does not provide refuge to fleeing Iraqi leaders. After all, if they -- they would not turn away any fleeing Iraqi leaders because that would really go against everything that the current Syrian leadership stands for, particularly -- particularly its pan-Arab nationalist posture. So I would not be surprised if the Syrian leadership does not really provide refuge to fleeing Iraqi leaders.
ZAHN: So how do you imagine Iranians in the government are reacting to these signals, very strong signals, being fired at Syria?
GERGES: Yes, absolutely. Yes, absolutely. I mean, it seems to me, not just the Iranians, but the entire Arab world, because, as I said, I mean -- there is a qualitative, dramatic difference between Syria and Iraq and how the situation is perceived in the Arab world and also in Iran. I think I would most Arab leaders, including -- of course, Iran is not an Arab country -- would basically make it very clear that Syria is a red line.
But I don't think that the situation will escalate to this particular point because I think the Syrian leadership is getting the message. The Syrian leadership is de-escalating its war of words with United States and I believe that I don't think we're going to witness any major, you might say, conflict or confrontation between the United States and Syria. I think at the end of the day the Syria leadership will step back from the brink. And obviously, the United States is using a preemptive diplomatic strategy with the implied threat of force. But I don't think they have made it at all clear they will use force against Syria.
ZAHN: Professor Fawaz Gerges thank you very much for stopping by today. Thanks for your patience.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
