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American Morning
Discussion with James Dobbins
Aired April 17, 2003 - 08:16 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: And just this week, Iraq casts its first free vote. it happened when more than 70 Iraqi leaders, invited by the u.s., meant in the ancient city of Ure (ph). it was a small, but significant first step toward building a post-Saddam Iraq. Here from Washington to explain what is next is ambassador James Dobbins, director of RAND's International Security and Defense Policy. He has been involved in the rebuilding of Afghanistan, Bosnia, Somalia and Haiti.
Good to have you with us this morning. Welcome, sir.
I know you say you never had any doubt that the U.S. And coalition forces would win this war militarily, but you are less certain about winning the peace. How concerned are you about that?
JAMES DOBBINS, RAND: Well, I think it can be done. But it's not automatic. And it will take a good deal of money, a good deal of manpower and, in particular, a fairly substantial amount of time.
ZAHN: And when you're talking time, what period of time do you think it will be?
DOBBINS: Well, we've done these things quickly and done them well, but we've never done them quickly and well. I've never seen a substantial effort of nation building on this scale succeed in less than five years.
ZAHN: We have heard Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz say he doesn't think the rebuilding will take as long as Bosnia, or Kosovo or East Timor. Is he being realistic?
DOBBINS: Well, he certainly is not being realistic if he compares it with East Timor, which was much smaller and went more quickly. Bosnia has gone in something in excess of six years now. Kosovo is going on three.
I think it's premature to make a judgment. I simply said it hasn't happened before in less than five years successfully. I wouldn't preclude it happening more quickly this time, but I don't, at this point, see reasons to come to such a conclusion.
I would say, however, that nearly every administration underestimates the amount of time it would take. I mean, the Truman administration thought they'd be out of Japan and Germany a year. Those occupations took seven years. Clinton thought he would get out of Bosnia in a year, and we're still there. ZAHN: Let's talk about your experience in Bosnia for a moment. What are some of the lessons you learned there and the U.S. government learned there they could apply to the rebuilding of Iraq?
DOBBINS: Well, one lesson that is being applied but perhaps not as quickly and comprehensively as it might be is the necessity of importing a package of police jurists, penal authorities, to thoroughly oversee the justice system in the country. Obviously, we are going to want to use the Iraqi police to the extent we can and maybe Iraqi judges, but they're not going to be trust worthy. They've practiced repression too long. They are going to need substantial oversight, and on occasion, we're going to have to do those jobs ourselves. So bringing in international civil police is important in an operation like this.
ZAHN: Were you surprised to see the amount of chaos that we saw in the first couple of days after Baghdad was taken?
DOBBINS: No.
ZAHN: Do you think the administration was prepared for what happened?
DOBBINS: I think pretty much as well as they could have been. We can't turn on a dime from combat operations to stabilization operations. It takes a few days. I think they've responded reasonably well and gotten the situation under control in most parts of the country. So I wouldn't be quick to criticize the swiftness of that reaction.
ZAHN: Down the road, what kind of role do you think the U.N. should play, or should it play any role in the rebuilding of Iraq at all?
DOBBINS: Well, I think that, you know, we need a national debate as to whether we want to do this ourselves. It's going to be expensive and lengthy, or whether we want substantial participation from other countries, and if we do, then we're going to have to give them a share of the authority and the responsibility, as well as the costs.
And to do that, we need to involve the organizations to which both they and we belong. The U.N. is one of them. It's not necessarily the one to do many of the tasks. The peacekeeping and security task is one that's well beyond the U.N.'s capability. The U.N. wouldn't accept it if we asked.
But it is something that NATO has done successfully in the Balkans, and it is a responsibility that we could share with NATO if we and other NATO members chose to do so. The U.N. has been very successful in helping put together interim governments, and did it in Afghanistan very rapidly and in close cooperation with the Bush administration, and they could be helpful there.
And, finally, when we get around to elections, and I think that's probably a couple of years off, the U.N. could supervise the election and certify it as free and fair, which they do frequently.
ZAHN: James Dobbins, thanks for covering all of the territory with us this morning. Very much appreciate your input. Pleasure.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired April 17, 2003 - 08:16 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: And just this week, Iraq casts its first free vote. it happened when more than 70 Iraqi leaders, invited by the u.s., meant in the ancient city of Ure (ph). it was a small, but significant first step toward building a post-Saddam Iraq. Here from Washington to explain what is next is ambassador James Dobbins, director of RAND's International Security and Defense Policy. He has been involved in the rebuilding of Afghanistan, Bosnia, Somalia and Haiti.
Good to have you with us this morning. Welcome, sir.
I know you say you never had any doubt that the U.S. And coalition forces would win this war militarily, but you are less certain about winning the peace. How concerned are you about that?
JAMES DOBBINS, RAND: Well, I think it can be done. But it's not automatic. And it will take a good deal of money, a good deal of manpower and, in particular, a fairly substantial amount of time.
ZAHN: And when you're talking time, what period of time do you think it will be?
DOBBINS: Well, we've done these things quickly and done them well, but we've never done them quickly and well. I've never seen a substantial effort of nation building on this scale succeed in less than five years.
ZAHN: We have heard Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz say he doesn't think the rebuilding will take as long as Bosnia, or Kosovo or East Timor. Is he being realistic?
DOBBINS: Well, he certainly is not being realistic if he compares it with East Timor, which was much smaller and went more quickly. Bosnia has gone in something in excess of six years now. Kosovo is going on three.
I think it's premature to make a judgment. I simply said it hasn't happened before in less than five years successfully. I wouldn't preclude it happening more quickly this time, but I don't, at this point, see reasons to come to such a conclusion.
I would say, however, that nearly every administration underestimates the amount of time it would take. I mean, the Truman administration thought they'd be out of Japan and Germany a year. Those occupations took seven years. Clinton thought he would get out of Bosnia in a year, and we're still there. ZAHN: Let's talk about your experience in Bosnia for a moment. What are some of the lessons you learned there and the U.S. government learned there they could apply to the rebuilding of Iraq?
DOBBINS: Well, one lesson that is being applied but perhaps not as quickly and comprehensively as it might be is the necessity of importing a package of police jurists, penal authorities, to thoroughly oversee the justice system in the country. Obviously, we are going to want to use the Iraqi police to the extent we can and maybe Iraqi judges, but they're not going to be trust worthy. They've practiced repression too long. They are going to need substantial oversight, and on occasion, we're going to have to do those jobs ourselves. So bringing in international civil police is important in an operation like this.
ZAHN: Were you surprised to see the amount of chaos that we saw in the first couple of days after Baghdad was taken?
DOBBINS: No.
ZAHN: Do you think the administration was prepared for what happened?
DOBBINS: I think pretty much as well as they could have been. We can't turn on a dime from combat operations to stabilization operations. It takes a few days. I think they've responded reasonably well and gotten the situation under control in most parts of the country. So I wouldn't be quick to criticize the swiftness of that reaction.
ZAHN: Down the road, what kind of role do you think the U.N. should play, or should it play any role in the rebuilding of Iraq at all?
DOBBINS: Well, I think that, you know, we need a national debate as to whether we want to do this ourselves. It's going to be expensive and lengthy, or whether we want substantial participation from other countries, and if we do, then we're going to have to give them a share of the authority and the responsibility, as well as the costs.
And to do that, we need to involve the organizations to which both they and we belong. The U.N. is one of them. It's not necessarily the one to do many of the tasks. The peacekeeping and security task is one that's well beyond the U.N.'s capability. The U.N. wouldn't accept it if we asked.
But it is something that NATO has done successfully in the Balkans, and it is a responsibility that we could share with NATO if we and other NATO members chose to do so. The U.N. has been very successful in helping put together interim governments, and did it in Afghanistan very rapidly and in close cooperation with the Bush administration, and they could be helpful there.
And, finally, when we get around to elections, and I think that's probably a couple of years off, the U.N. could supervise the election and certify it as free and fair, which they do frequently.
ZAHN: James Dobbins, thanks for covering all of the territory with us this morning. Very much appreciate your input. Pleasure.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
