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American Morning

Analyzing New Saddam Tape

Aired April 18, 2003 - 08:45   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: I want to bring in Ken Pollack, Saban Center, Brookings Institute, a long list of credentials for this man.
Ken Pollack's back with us, author of "The Threatening Storm."

Good to see you, Ken.

I know you're now just seeing this videotape, as we are as well.

What do you make of it?

KEN POLLACK, CNN ANALYST: Well, I think it is very interesting. I think it does speak to a few points. First, it does seem to reinforce the sense that Saddam actually did stay in Baghdad, which I think gets to the mystery of where is Saddam, how could he be somewhere else, wouldn't he know about it. Baghdad, because it is so big, because of the tunnel complexes, it is a good place for him to hide.

And second, it also speaks to the limited control that the United States has over Baghdad at this moment that he is able to move around in the city and even stage rallies like this while there are U.S. forces elsewhere in the city.

HEMMER: Ken, make sense of this if you could. Why would this tape only emerge now nine days later and nine days old?

POLLACK: Well, that is a heck of a question, and I can't give a good answer just yet. But one suspicion I have is it may have been the case that the Iraqis didn't want to release it for some period of time, because they were afraid that if they released it too soon, that might give away something about where Saddam is hiding. For example, it may be that Saddam is no longer in this part of Baghdad anymore. He may have moved to a different part of Baghdad. And they were afraid that had they released it sooner, when he was in that part of Baghdad, it would have led U.S. forces immediately there.

HEMMER: Some mentality right now, Ken, if you could, go beneath the thinking of the Baath Party and Saddam Hussein. Why would he come out publicly and make an appearance like this that is so rare based on his history?

POLLACK: I think he recognizes he is in very serious shape. The United States has taken control of the country away from him. He has -- he's going to have a tremendous amount of difficulty fleeing. He's also going to have a tremendous amount of difficulty getting the country back. But it seems to suggest that he believes his better option is to try to take control of the city, or control of the country back, rather than try to flee, and he is trying to desperately to build support and build a myth that he is still out there, he is still capable of eluding the Americans, give heart to his loyalists to keep fighting, and maybe try to reconstruct some kind of base that will allow him to retake control of the country at a later point.

HEMMER: Ken, do you think it is logical, do you think it is possible for him to hide in plain sight?

POLLACK: Yes, it's a great question, Bill. It's one I've been wondering about as well. Has Saddam altered his physical appearance? Is he wearing a false mustache of some kind? It is conceivable, and hard to imagine. That mustache is part of him, it's...

HEMMER: So, too, is the birth mark below his left ear?

POLLACK: Exactly. It is going to be tough. But it is possible. The Iraqis have worked hard on makeup and disguises, most of the time trying to disguise other people to be Saddam. So they may have worked in the reverse direction as well.

HEMMER: What about this thought, then, Ken? We now know that some Iraqis, perhaps many are helping the U.S. locate some of these Baath Party members, their headquarters, where they met, not just in Baghdad, but possibly in Basra, and Mosul as well. How much concern, a paranoid man like Saddam Hussein who ruled that country for almost 25 years, based largely on his own paranoia, how much concern would he have right now about his own people turning him in?

POLLACK: I think he would have tremendous concern. As you heard Jasim say before, the kind of bounty that the United States is willing to put on Saddam Hussein's head, and many Iraqis who want to see Saddam not only dead, but eviscerated. I think under those circumstances, he has to be concerned. But clearly, he still has enough security presence around him that in some of these neighborhood, where his loyalists dwell, he steel feels he can move around a bit.

HEMMER: Ken, hang with us a second -- Heidi's got a question, too.

HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Hi, Ken. Heidi Colins here.

Just wondering if what you think this will mean as far as the tactics and the search for Saddam Hussein, now that we have seen this video and other videos that show him possibly alive in the area. Do you think that will change the way the military is going about this? Obviously, if it was nine days ago, he could be long gone, and then again, he could be in front of their faces. So is it possible they will do things a little bit differently?

POLLACK: My guess is they will do things differently, but probably won't say it publicly. The fact of the matter is that the military is right when they say that Saddam Hussein has lost control of the country and, therefore, is no longer a threat to the Iraqi people, the region, to the United States, to any of the things that we were concerned about. That said, this is -- this kind of tape is, a, an embarrassment, and, b, also the kind of thing that could give heart to his loyalists, and cause his loyalist to fight us harder and hold on a bit longer. So I think they will get more aggressive in terms of trying to search for Saddam and run him to ground, if only to try to short-circuit the potential for future resistance.

HEMMER: Ken, the one thing we're learning about this regime is that Saddam Hussein is a man who's surrounded himself with friends and family, specifically the clan of Tikrit, north of Baghdad. This is the ultimate MCI program. If you have friends and you were family, boy, you were close to him, but always that paranoia was maintained.

I'm curious to know from your perspective right now, how much you think there is still that sense of insulation around him, knowing that the U.S. is in Iraq and the buildup continues to essentially occupy the country of Iraq.

POLLACK: My guess is, Bill, he still does have that protective shell around himself, but it clearly is fraying, it clearly is breaking down. You're seeing some members of the inner circle moving in different be directions, the capture of his two half brothers, Waban (ph) and Barzan (ph). Although they were no longer part of the inner circle, at least over the last few years, they were still part of the larger group around Saddam.

And what's more, just looking at this tape, this is not something that we've seen Saddam willing to do very frequently, to go out there and actually press the flesh with the people of Baghdad. I think Jasim is right, this is a group of Saddam's loyalists or people from a particular neighborhood known to be loyal to Saddam.

But it suggests a little bit of desperation, and I think well it should. He recognizes that he is very much on the losing end of the stick right now, and he's got to take some desperate measures to try to shore up his support and give him a chance of surviving.

HEMMER: All right, Ken, listen, thanks.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired April 18, 2003 - 08:45   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: I want to bring in Ken Pollack, Saban Center, Brookings Institute, a long list of credentials for this man.
Ken Pollack's back with us, author of "The Threatening Storm."

Good to see you, Ken.

I know you're now just seeing this videotape, as we are as well.

What do you make of it?

KEN POLLACK, CNN ANALYST: Well, I think it is very interesting. I think it does speak to a few points. First, it does seem to reinforce the sense that Saddam actually did stay in Baghdad, which I think gets to the mystery of where is Saddam, how could he be somewhere else, wouldn't he know about it. Baghdad, because it is so big, because of the tunnel complexes, it is a good place for him to hide.

And second, it also speaks to the limited control that the United States has over Baghdad at this moment that he is able to move around in the city and even stage rallies like this while there are U.S. forces elsewhere in the city.

HEMMER: Ken, make sense of this if you could. Why would this tape only emerge now nine days later and nine days old?

POLLACK: Well, that is a heck of a question, and I can't give a good answer just yet. But one suspicion I have is it may have been the case that the Iraqis didn't want to release it for some period of time, because they were afraid that if they released it too soon, that might give away something about where Saddam is hiding. For example, it may be that Saddam is no longer in this part of Baghdad anymore. He may have moved to a different part of Baghdad. And they were afraid that had they released it sooner, when he was in that part of Baghdad, it would have led U.S. forces immediately there.

HEMMER: Some mentality right now, Ken, if you could, go beneath the thinking of the Baath Party and Saddam Hussein. Why would he come out publicly and make an appearance like this that is so rare based on his history?

POLLACK: I think he recognizes he is in very serious shape. The United States has taken control of the country away from him. He has -- he's going to have a tremendous amount of difficulty fleeing. He's also going to have a tremendous amount of difficulty getting the country back. But it seems to suggest that he believes his better option is to try to take control of the city, or control of the country back, rather than try to flee, and he is trying to desperately to build support and build a myth that he is still out there, he is still capable of eluding the Americans, give heart to his loyalists to keep fighting, and maybe try to reconstruct some kind of base that will allow him to retake control of the country at a later point.

HEMMER: Ken, do you think it is logical, do you think it is possible for him to hide in plain sight?

POLLACK: Yes, it's a great question, Bill. It's one I've been wondering about as well. Has Saddam altered his physical appearance? Is he wearing a false mustache of some kind? It is conceivable, and hard to imagine. That mustache is part of him, it's...

HEMMER: So, too, is the birth mark below his left ear?

POLLACK: Exactly. It is going to be tough. But it is possible. The Iraqis have worked hard on makeup and disguises, most of the time trying to disguise other people to be Saddam. So they may have worked in the reverse direction as well.

HEMMER: What about this thought, then, Ken? We now know that some Iraqis, perhaps many are helping the U.S. locate some of these Baath Party members, their headquarters, where they met, not just in Baghdad, but possibly in Basra, and Mosul as well. How much concern, a paranoid man like Saddam Hussein who ruled that country for almost 25 years, based largely on his own paranoia, how much concern would he have right now about his own people turning him in?

POLLACK: I think he would have tremendous concern. As you heard Jasim say before, the kind of bounty that the United States is willing to put on Saddam Hussein's head, and many Iraqis who want to see Saddam not only dead, but eviscerated. I think under those circumstances, he has to be concerned. But clearly, he still has enough security presence around him that in some of these neighborhood, where his loyalists dwell, he steel feels he can move around a bit.

HEMMER: Ken, hang with us a second -- Heidi's got a question, too.

HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Hi, Ken. Heidi Colins here.

Just wondering if what you think this will mean as far as the tactics and the search for Saddam Hussein, now that we have seen this video and other videos that show him possibly alive in the area. Do you think that will change the way the military is going about this? Obviously, if it was nine days ago, he could be long gone, and then again, he could be in front of their faces. So is it possible they will do things a little bit differently?

POLLACK: My guess is they will do things differently, but probably won't say it publicly. The fact of the matter is that the military is right when they say that Saddam Hussein has lost control of the country and, therefore, is no longer a threat to the Iraqi people, the region, to the United States, to any of the things that we were concerned about. That said, this is -- this kind of tape is, a, an embarrassment, and, b, also the kind of thing that could give heart to his loyalists, and cause his loyalist to fight us harder and hold on a bit longer. So I think they will get more aggressive in terms of trying to search for Saddam and run him to ground, if only to try to short-circuit the potential for future resistance.

HEMMER: Ken, the one thing we're learning about this regime is that Saddam Hussein is a man who's surrounded himself with friends and family, specifically the clan of Tikrit, north of Baghdad. This is the ultimate MCI program. If you have friends and you were family, boy, you were close to him, but always that paranoia was maintained.

I'm curious to know from your perspective right now, how much you think there is still that sense of insulation around him, knowing that the U.S. is in Iraq and the buildup continues to essentially occupy the country of Iraq.

POLLACK: My guess is, Bill, he still does have that protective shell around himself, but it clearly is fraying, it clearly is breaking down. You're seeing some members of the inner circle moving in different be directions, the capture of his two half brothers, Waban (ph) and Barzan (ph). Although they were no longer part of the inner circle, at least over the last few years, they were still part of the larger group around Saddam.

And what's more, just looking at this tape, this is not something that we've seen Saddam willing to do very frequently, to go out there and actually press the flesh with the people of Baghdad. I think Jasim is right, this is a group of Saddam's loyalists or people from a particular neighborhood known to be loyal to Saddam.

But it suggests a little bit of desperation, and I think well it should. He recognizes that he is very much on the losing end of the stick right now, and he's got to take some desperate measures to try to shore up his support and give him a chance of surviving.

HEMMER: All right, Ken, listen, thanks.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com