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American Morning
Discussion with Former U.S. Ambassador to Israel
Aired April 23, 2003 - 07:35 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: We want to get to the Middle East quickly now.
Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat said to be facing intense international pressure to resolve the dispute with his new prime minister. That disagreement threatening to derail the peace process. Arafat and his prime minister designate, Abu Mazen, locked in a fight over the makeup of a new cabinet. The deadline to form a new government midnight tonight in the Middle East, about five o'clock local time here on the East Coast is the deadline.
President Bush has promised to reveal his much anticipated road map for the peace process once that cabinet is approved. But that has to come first.
Let's talk more about the power struggle right now and the possible consequences.
Ambassador Martin Indyk, former U.S. ambassador to Israel, now with the Saban Center, the director, in fact, Brookings Institution, live in D.C.
Ambassador, good morning to you.
Great to have you back here.
AMB. MARTIN INDYK, DIRECTOR, SABAN CENTER AT BROOKINGS, FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR: Good morning, Bill.
Good to be back.
HEMMER: Thank you.
Tell us why the selection of this particular position is so critical for the Palestinian process.
INDYK: Well, what the international community, and particularly President Bush, is looking for is a change of leadership to a more responsible leadership than Yasser Arafat represented, one that will control the terrorist organizations like Hamas and Islamic Jihad, prevent them from continuing their violent campaign against Israel and thereby lay the basis for an effective peace process to restart again.
So it's all about whether Abu Mazen will emerge with authority, particularly in the security area, to deliver on an end to the intifada in a way that will make it possible to move ahead on the peace process. HEMMER: Help me understand this. All the efforts to try and push Yasser Arafat to the side, he is still there, still around, still with a lot of influence. Why is it that way now?
INDYK: Well, in the Middle East, the old politics of the Middle East, before we removed Saddam Hussein, there were only two kinds of Arab leaders, those that have all power concentrated in their hands and those that were dead or, in Saddam Hussein's case, missing in action. And Arafat understands that principle very well. He doesn't want to give up his power. He's under immense pressure, both from the Palestinian people and from the international community to do so.
So what he does, he's the artful dodger. He gives on the form but tries to avoid giving on the substance. He appoints a new prime minister but then spends an enormous amount of effort whittling away at Abu Mazen's authority, forcing him to compromise on his appointments until they get to the point now where it's all about the most important source of Arafat's power, his control over the security services.
If he relinquishes that to Abu Mazen by allowing Abu Mazen to appoint Mohammed Dahlan as the minister of interior or deputy minister, then Arafat will essentially have given up the game. And he doesn't intend to do that.
HEMMER: Quickly here, if there is no agreement by the deadline, midnight in Jerusalem, five o'clock here in New York, what happens then?
INDYK: Well, in the nature of dysfunctional Palestinian politics, it could be one of three things. Either Arafat will compromise -- he's under immense pressure from the Egyptians now, the head of military intelligence is there today, and give in on this security issue, or Abu Mazen will resign and then we'll have to have another go around with a new prime minister in an attempt to form a new cabinet, or they'll kick the can down the road, find some way -- and there is a way -- parliamentary procedure would enable them to extend the deadline for another week of dilly dallying.
I think at this point it's anybody's guess which way it will come out. But if Abu Mazen doesn't get his security man in place, I predict to you that he will resign and then the whole process will be put on hold for some time to come.
HEMMER: Well, we'll all know within the next nine hours, as you say. The clock is ticking right now.
Ambassador, thanks.
INDYK: Thank you.
HEMMER: Martin Indyk live in D.C.
Good to see you.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired April 23, 2003 - 07:35 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: We want to get to the Middle East quickly now.
Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat said to be facing intense international pressure to resolve the dispute with his new prime minister. That disagreement threatening to derail the peace process. Arafat and his prime minister designate, Abu Mazen, locked in a fight over the makeup of a new cabinet. The deadline to form a new government midnight tonight in the Middle East, about five o'clock local time here on the East Coast is the deadline.
President Bush has promised to reveal his much anticipated road map for the peace process once that cabinet is approved. But that has to come first.
Let's talk more about the power struggle right now and the possible consequences.
Ambassador Martin Indyk, former U.S. ambassador to Israel, now with the Saban Center, the director, in fact, Brookings Institution, live in D.C.
Ambassador, good morning to you.
Great to have you back here.
AMB. MARTIN INDYK, DIRECTOR, SABAN CENTER AT BROOKINGS, FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR: Good morning, Bill.
Good to be back.
HEMMER: Thank you.
Tell us why the selection of this particular position is so critical for the Palestinian process.
INDYK: Well, what the international community, and particularly President Bush, is looking for is a change of leadership to a more responsible leadership than Yasser Arafat represented, one that will control the terrorist organizations like Hamas and Islamic Jihad, prevent them from continuing their violent campaign against Israel and thereby lay the basis for an effective peace process to restart again.
So it's all about whether Abu Mazen will emerge with authority, particularly in the security area, to deliver on an end to the intifada in a way that will make it possible to move ahead on the peace process. HEMMER: Help me understand this. All the efforts to try and push Yasser Arafat to the side, he is still there, still around, still with a lot of influence. Why is it that way now?
INDYK: Well, in the Middle East, the old politics of the Middle East, before we removed Saddam Hussein, there were only two kinds of Arab leaders, those that have all power concentrated in their hands and those that were dead or, in Saddam Hussein's case, missing in action. And Arafat understands that principle very well. He doesn't want to give up his power. He's under immense pressure, both from the Palestinian people and from the international community to do so.
So what he does, he's the artful dodger. He gives on the form but tries to avoid giving on the substance. He appoints a new prime minister but then spends an enormous amount of effort whittling away at Abu Mazen's authority, forcing him to compromise on his appointments until they get to the point now where it's all about the most important source of Arafat's power, his control over the security services.
If he relinquishes that to Abu Mazen by allowing Abu Mazen to appoint Mohammed Dahlan as the minister of interior or deputy minister, then Arafat will essentially have given up the game. And he doesn't intend to do that.
HEMMER: Quickly here, if there is no agreement by the deadline, midnight in Jerusalem, five o'clock here in New York, what happens then?
INDYK: Well, in the nature of dysfunctional Palestinian politics, it could be one of three things. Either Arafat will compromise -- he's under immense pressure from the Egyptians now, the head of military intelligence is there today, and give in on this security issue, or Abu Mazen will resign and then we'll have to have another go around with a new prime minister in an attempt to form a new cabinet, or they'll kick the can down the road, find some way -- and there is a way -- parliamentary procedure would enable them to extend the deadline for another week of dilly dallying.
I think at this point it's anybody's guess which way it will come out. But if Abu Mazen doesn't get his security man in place, I predict to you that he will resign and then the whole process will be put on hold for some time to come.
HEMMER: Well, we'll all know within the next nine hours, as you say. The clock is ticking right now.
Ambassador, thanks.
INDYK: Thank you.
HEMMER: Martin Indyk live in D.C.
Good to see you.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
